Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2019 - Update

Description

The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a bi-annual publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in Emerging Asia. It focuses on the economic conditions of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. It also addresses relevant economic issues in China and India to fully reflect economic developments in the region. The Outlook comprises four main parts, each highlighting a particular dimension of recent economic developments in the region. The first part presents the regional economic monitor, depicting the economic outlook and macroeconomic challenges in the region. The second part consists of a special thematic chapter addressing a major issue facing the region. The 2019 edition of the Outlook looks at smart cities, with a special focus on transportation. Addressing traffic congestion, in particular, is critical in realising the potential benefits of urbanisation for growth. The third part of the report includes structural country notes offering specific recommendations for each country, and the fourth part discusses the recent progress made in key aspects of regional integration. Foreword Acknowledgements Table of contents Executive summary Overview Chapter 1: Macroeconomic assessment and economic outlook Special thematic focus for Update 2019: Smart urbanisation Chapter 1: Macroeconomic assessment and economic outlook Introduction Overview and main findings Recent developments and near-term outlook Inflationary pressures are easing across most of Emerging Asia Current account balances are under pressure Challenges to robust growth Emerging Asian economies are susceptible to direct and value chain spillover effects Trade diversion will impact countries differently The speed of export adjustment matters in containing spillover effects Adjustments in China’s currency have been mild as the US dollar strengthens The global trade tensions present an opportunity to shift the region’sinvestment and trade strategies Notes References Chapter 2: Overview of trends for smart city strategies in Emerging Asia Introduction Promoting a “territorial” approach Smart city strategies in Emerging Asia Conclusion References Chapter 3: Addressing urban environmental risks Introduction Reducing urban air pollution Conclusion Annex 3.A1. Urban ambient air pollution cost estimation methodology Notes References Tables Table 1. Real GDP growth in ASEAN, China and India Table 2. Estimated additional urban mortality and welfare costs associated with elevated pollution levels Table 3. Fossil fuel power plants near selected Emerging Asian cities Table 1.1. Real GDP growth in ASEAN, China and India Table 1.2. Recent real GDP growth in ASEAN, China and India, 2018-19 Table 2.1. National-level smart city strategies in Emerging Asia Table 2.2. Bandung’s smart city initiatives Table 2.3. Six smart city domains identified in Thailand Table 2.4. Key features of the smart city strategies assessed in this study Table 3.1. Actual and prescribed number of monitoring sites in selected Emerging Asian cities, 2014 Table 3.2. Estimated additional urban mortality and welfare costs associated with elevated pollution levels Table 3.3. Emerging Asian countries with national air quality standards, by pollutant Table 3.4. Fossil fuel power plants near selected Emerging Asian cities Table 3.A1.1. Estimated air pollution in Emerging Asian urban areas Table 3.A1.2. Estimated additional urban mortality associated with elevated pollution levels Table 3.A1.3. Estimated additional urban mortality associated with elevated pollution levels Table A.1. Real GDP growth of Southeast Asia, China and India Table A.2. Current account balances of Southeast Asia, China and India Figures Figure 1. Selected goods exports of Thailand and Viet Nam by partner economy, 2018-19 Figure 2. Distribution of urban population exposure to air pollution, 2016 Figure 1.1. Real GDP growth of Southeast Asia, China and India Figure 1.2. Percentage of business owners satisfied with transport infrastructure in Viet Nam by province, 2016 Figure 1.3. Agriculture total factor productivity average annual growth in Emerging Asian economies, 1986-2015 Figure 1.4. Contribution to growth in ASEAN, China and India, 2016-18 Figure 1.5. Business and consumer confidence indices in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand, 2017-19 Figure 1.6. Private consumption and gross exports real growth in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand, 2017-19 Figure 1.7. Cambodia’s exports of textile and clothing to the United Kingdom Figure 1.8. Inflation in ASEAN, China and India, 2017-19 Figure 1.9. Current account balances of ASEAN, China and India, 2016-20 Figure 1.10. Capital flows in ASEAN, China and India, 2016-18 Figure 1.11. Goods imports of China by partner economy, 2017-19 Figure 1.12. Selected goods exports of Thailand and Viet Nam by partner economy, 2018-19 Figure 1.13. Nominal effective exchange rates of selected currencies, 2018-19 Figure 1.14. Yield and terms spreads, US and Emerging Asia, 2012-19 Figure 2.1. Breakdown of subnational expenditure as a share of total public expenditure, 2016 Figure 2.2. Breakdown of subnational government expenditure by function (COFOG), OECD countries, 2015 Figure 3.1. Ambient air pollution in selected Emerging Asian cities in recent years Figure 3.2. Distribution of urban population exposure to air pollution, 2016 Figure 3.3. Fossil fuel subsidies in Emerging Asia, 2016 Figure 3.4. Transportation energy use in selected Emerging Asian cities Figure 3.5. Share of population with electricity access by location, 2016 Figure 3.6. OECD Environmental Policy Stringency Index, 2015 Figure 3.7. Air pollution abatement technology patents, 2010-14 Boxes Box 1.1. Investment in infrastructure can spur local development Box 1.2. Facilitating the use of digital services to promote rural agriculture Box 1.3. The potential impact of Brexit on Cambodia’s textile industry Box 1.4. Capital markets in Emerging Asia – Stable but headwinds persist Box 2.1. Bandung Command Centre Box 2.2. Singapore Smart Nation Initiative: Digital Economy, Digital Government, Digital Society Box 2.3. Ageing population in the ASEAN region Box 2.4. Subnational smart city and capacity building networks in Asia Box 3.1. The need for improved air quality monitoring in Emerging Asian cities Box 3.2. Regional co-operation to deal with transborder air pollution Box 3.3. Fossil fuel subsidies and air pollution Box 3.4. Innovation to improve air quality and the environment: More can be done