OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2013 Issue 2.

Description

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country and a statistical annex.  Read more... Table of contents Summary of projections Editorial: Stronger growth ahead, but more risks Chapter 1. General assessment of the current economic situation Summary Introduction Table 1.1. The global recovery will gain momentum only slowly Recent activity and financial developments The growth slowdown in EMEs, spillovers and feedback effects Figure 1.1. Government bond yields have increased, while equity prices and exchange rates have gyrated Figure 1.2. Financial conditions fell especially sharply in external deficit EMEs. Figure 1.3. Banking sector vulnerabilities have surfaced in some EMEsFigure 1.4. External vulnerability indicators in selected EMEs Figure 1.5. Recent business sentiment outcomes are mixed Box 1.1. Global spillovers from the growth slowdown in emerging market economies Direct trade exposures to non-OECD economies are large in some countries A domestic demand slowdown in the non-OECD could have sizeable adverse Banks' foreign claims on emerging market economies Financial conditions in OECD countries. Figure 1.6. Aggregate financial conditions have tightened slightly in the euro area and the United StatesFigure 1.7. Market participants now expect earlier and faster monetary policy tightening Demand and activity developments in OECD economies Figure 1.8. Household financial liabilities are now declining in more economies Table 1.2. Housing market developments continue to diverge The near-term projections Box 1.2. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections Box 1.3. Progress on structural reform in the vulnerable euro area countries. Responsiveness to Going for Growth recommendationsThere has been progress in reforming labour markets Table 1.3. OECD labour market conditions are likely to improve slowly Figure 1.9. Labour market slack is diverging and large overall Table 1.4. World trade will strengthen only gradually Figure 1.10. Relative unit labour costs are continuing to adjust in the euro area Risks to the outlook Fiscal risks in the United States Box 1.4. Quantifying the possible macroeconomic effects of a binding US debt ceiling US fiscal consolidation only US fiscal consolidation financial markets shock. Addressing remaining risks in the euro areaFigure 1.11. Capital needs in euro area banks to reach a 5% leverage ratio are still large Fiscal policy risks in Japan Economic policy requirements in the major economies Monetary policy Box 1.5. The impact of government bond yield increases on banks The impact of government bond yield increases on banks' balance sheets Fiscal policy Table 1.5. Fiscal positions will continue to improve Box 1.6. Fiscal consolidation needed after 2015 under the EU fiscal rules Binding fiscal rules over the medium term.