Theory and Method of Fisheries Forecasting

Description

This book systematically introduces the knowledge system and research results of fisheries forecasting. It is divided into four parts and seven chapters. The first part is the introduction, which mainly introduces the basic concepts, the nature of the subject, and the research contents, as well as the current status of research. The second part is about the basic knowledge of fisheries forecasting, including overview of the world marine environment, fish shoaling and migration distribution, the relationship between fish behavior and marine environment, and the basic theory of forming fishing ground. The third part is the focus of this book, including the basic principles and methods of fisheries forecasting, as well as the application of new techniques and methods in fisheries forecasting. The fourth part is the comprehensive application of fisheries forecasting, including the general situation of world marine fisheries, the impact of global marine environment changes on fisheries resources and fishing ground, and case studying of fisheries forecasting of important economic species, such as oceanic squid, jack mackerel, anchovy, and skipjack.  The study of this book will help everyone to master the basic principles and methods of fisheries forecasting, as well as the application of new technologies and methods in important economic species, and lay a foundation for future work in the field of marine fisheries. Preface Contents Editors and Contributors Abbreviations 1: Introduction 1.1 The Concept of Fisheries Forecasting 1.2 Nature and Research Content of Fisheries Forecasting Discipline 1.2.1 Nature and Status of the Discipline 1.2.2 Research Content of the Discipline 1.3 Relationship Between Fisheries Forecasting and Other Disciplines 1.4 General Situation of Foreign and Domestic Fisheries Forecasting Research 1.4.1 United States 1.4.2 Japan 1.4.3 China References 2: Overview of the Marine Environment 2.1 The Marine Morphology 2.1.1 Marine Area and Partitioning Oceans Seas Bays Straits 2.1.2 Seabed Morphology Coast Continental Margins Continental Shelf (Referred to as the Shelf) Continental Slope Continental Rise Deep-Ocean Basin (Ocean Floor) Ocean Trenches 2.1.3 Marine Sediments 2.2 Distribution of the Ocean Currents 2.2.1 Concept of Ocean Circulation and Its Genesis 2.2.2 Generation of Upwelling and Downwelling 2.2.3 Distribution of the Ocean Circulation Equatorial Currents Western-Boundary Currents West Wind Drift Eastern-Boundary Currents Polar Circulation (Fig. 2.6) 2.2.4 Main Ocean Currents in Various Oceans Pacific Ocean Kuroshio Current Oyashio Current California Current Equatorial Currents and Their Undercurrent Peru Current Atlantic Ocean Gulf Stream East Greenland Current North Atlantic Current Canary Current Brazil Current Indian Ocean 2.3 Sea Temperature Distribution in the Oceans 2.3.1 Basic Concept 2.3.2 Sea Temperature Distribution Pattern Horizontal Distribution Pattern of Sea Surface Temperature Vertical Changes in Sea Temperature 2.3.3 Distribution of Global Sea Surface Temperature 2.4 Distribution of Nutrient Salts and Primary Production in the Oceans 2.4.1 Nutrient Salts Basic Concept Sources of Nutrient Salts and Their Distribution 2.4.2 Primary Production Related Concepts 2.4.3 Distribution of Marine Productivity Tropical and Subtropical Ocean Regions and the Equatorial Zone Tropical and Subtropical Ocean Regions Equatorial Zone Temperate (Subpolar) Zone in the Oceans Northern Hemisphere Southern Ocean Polar Zone Coastal Zones Upwelling Fronts Shelf-Slope Break Frontal Zone Low-Salinity Fronts and Tidal Mixing Fronts References 3: Shoaling and Migration of Fish and Their Relationships with Environment 3.1 Significance of Fish Shoaling and Migration 3.1.1 Concepts and Categories of Shoaling Fish Breeding Shoals Feeding Shoals Overwintering Shoal Temporary Shoals 3.1.2 General Patterns of Shoaling Fish 3.1.3 Functions of Shoaling Fish Defensing Against Predators Enhanced Foraging Success Reproductive Advantages Other Aspects 3.1.4 The Behavioral Mechanism and Structure of Shoaling Fish The Behavioral Mechanism of Shoaling Fish The Role of Vision in Shoaling Fish The Role of Lateral Sense in Shoaling Fish The Role of Olfaction in Shoaling Fish Fish Shoal Structure 3.2 Fish Migration and Distribution 3.2.1 Definition and Types of Fish Migration Definition of Fish Migration Types of Fish Migration Based on Driving Force of Migratory Movements Based on Purpose of Migration Breeding Migration or Spawning Migration Feeding Migration (Also Called Foraging or Fattening Migration) Overwintering Migration (Also Known as Seasonal Migration or Temperature-Adaptive Migration) According to Ecological Environment (Nature of Waters) Migration of Oceanodromous Fish Migration of Anadromous Fish Migration of Catadromous Fish Migration of Potamodromous Fish 3.2.2 Mechanism and Biological Significance of Fish Migration Mechanism of Fish Migration Factors Affecting Fish Migration Internal Factors External Factors Mechanisms of Orientation During Migration Hydrochemical Factors Water Current Tropism of Fish Temperature Topography Genetic Factors Cosmic Factors The Biological Significance of Fish Migration 3.2.3 Vertical Migration of Fish Characteristics of Vertical Migration Vertical Migration Speed Influencing Factors 3.2.4 Research Methods for Fish Migration Statistical Catch Analyses The Tagging Method The Definition of Tagging The Significance of Tagging Types of Tagging External Tags Isotopic Tags Bio-remote Sensing Tags Data-Storage Tags PSAT Distribution Model Prediction Prediction of Migration Based on Trace Element and Stable Isotope Analysis Trace Element Analysis Stable Isotope Analysis 3.3 Characteristics of the Marine Environment and Its Impact on Fish Distribution 3.3.1 Characteristics of the Marine Environment 3.3.2 The Impact of the Marine Environment on Fish Distribution Marine Environmental Factors Comprehensive Effects Effects of Dominant Factors Direct and Indirect Effects The Limiting Mechanism of Marine Environmental Factors General Effects of Marine Environmental Conditions on Fish Behavior 3.4 The Relationship Between Fish Behavior and Temperature 3.4.1 Response of Fish to Temperature 3.4.2 Adaptation of Fish to Water Temperature Changes 3.4.3 The Optimal Temperature Range for Fish Species 3.4.4 Impact of Water Temperature on Fish Shoaling and Migration 3.4.5 Vertical Structure of Water Temperature and the Distribution of Fish 3.5 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Ocean Currents 3.5.1 Types of Ocean Currents 3.5.2 The Impact of Ocean Currents on the Survival Rate of Fish Larvae 3.5.3 Relationship Between Ocean Currents and the Range of Fish Migration 3.5.4 Relationship Between Ocean Currents and Tuna Distribution 3.5.5 Relationship Between Tidal Currents and Fisheries 3.6 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Water Salinity 3.6.1 Distribution of Salinity in the Ocean 3.6.2 Responses of Fish to Salinity Changes 3.6.3 Fish Respond to Salinity Changes by Regulating Osmotic Pressure 3.6.4 The Relationship Between Salinity and Fish Movement 3.7 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Dissolved Oxygen 3.7.1 Dissolved Oxygen in Seawater 3.7.2 Harm of Anoxic Water to Fish and Its Effect on Fish Movement 3.7.3 Relationship Between Dissolved Oxygen and Tuna Distribution 3.8 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Other Factors 3.8.1 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Water Depth and Seafloor Topography 3.8.2 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Bait Organisms Bait Organisms Plankton Demersal Organisms Swimming Animals Predators Predatory Fish and Animals Red Tide Organisms References 4: Basic Theories of Formation of Fishing Ground 4.1 Basic Concepts and Types of Fishing Grounds 4.1.1 The Concept of Fishing Grounds and Their Characteristics Fishing Grounds Basic Characteristics of Fishing Grounds Several Basic Issues Studied in the Science of Fishing Ground Basic Conditions for the Formation of Fishing Grounds 4.1.2 Types of Fishing Grounds 4.1.3 Fishing Period (Fishing Season) 4.1.4 Evaluation of the Value of Fishing Grounds 4.2 General Principles for the Formation of Excellent Fishing Grounds 4.2.1 Fishing Grounds Along Current Boundaries Concept of a Current Boundary Reasons for the Formation of Fishing Grounds Along Current Boundaries Kitahara´s Law of Fishing Conditions Method for Judging Current Boundaries Amount of Aggregation of Floating Substances in Fishing Grounds Along Current Boundaries Distribution of Fishing Grounds Along Current Boundaries 4.2.2 Fishing Grounds in Eddy Areas Mechanical Eddy Topographically Generated Eddy Compound Eddy 4.2.3 Upwelling Fishing Grounds General Principles for the Formation of Upwelling Fishing Grounds Types of Upwelling Wind-Induced Upwelling Divergent Upwelling Anticline Structure of Water Temperature Cold-Water Dome Distribution of Upwelling Fishing Grounds 4.2.4 Continental Fishing Grounds Main Water Systems That Affect Continental Fishing Grounds Conditions for the Formation of Continental Fishing Grounds Distribution of the Main Continental Fishing Grounds Around the World 4.2.5 Fishing Grounds in Reef Banks Types of Sea Areas with Reef Banks and Their Distribution Distribution of Fishing Grounds in Reef Banks 4.2.6 Distribution of the Main Fishing Grounds Around the World References 5: Basic Principles and Methods of Fisheries Forecasting 5.1 Overview of Fisheries Forecasting 5.1.1 The Concept of Fisheries Forecasting 5.1.2 Types and Content of Fisheries Forecasting Divided Based on the Forecast Period Divided Based on Fisheries Forecasting Content 5.2 Techniques and Methods for Fisheries Forecasting 5.2.1 Basic Process of Fisheries Forecasting 5.2.2 Composition of a Fisheries Forecasting Model Basis of Fisheries Science Data Models Forecasting Models 5.2.3 Introduction of the Main Fisheries Forecasting Models Statistical Models Linear Regression Models Generalized Regression Model Bayesian Method Time Series Analysis Spatial Analysis and Interpolation Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Methods ANN Models Rule-Based Expert System CBR Mechanism/Process Models and Theoretical Models 5.3 Application of Ocean Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in Fisheries Forecasting 5.3.1 Application of Remote Sensing in Fisheries Forecasting SST Ocean Water Color 5.3.2 Application of GIS in Fisheries Forecasting Development History of Fisheries GIS Utilization of GIS to Study the Relationship Between Fishery Resources and the Marine Environment Utilization of GIS to Study Fisheries Forecasting 5.4 Application of Habitat Theories and Methods in Fisheries Forecasting 5.4.1 Basic Concept 5.4.2 Brief Description of Research Methods 5.4.3 Commonly Used HSI Calculation Formulas and Their Applications 5.4.4 Application of the HSI in Marine Fisheries References 6: Case Studies of Fisheries Forecasting 6.1 Fishing Season Analysis and Fishing Ground Forecasting 6.1.1 Fishing Season Analysis: Case Studying for O. bartramii in the North Pacific Ocean Migration Distribution of O. bartramii Relationship Between Fishing Season Analysis for O. bartramii and the Marine Environment Relationship Between the Fishing Season of O. bartramii and Sea Temperature Relationship Between the Formation of the O. bartramii Fishing Season and Ocean Currents 6.1.2 Fishing Period Prediction: Case Studying for Japanese Spanish Mackerel S. niphonius in the East China Sea Overview of the Migration Distribution of S. niphonius Fishing Period Forecasting for S. niphonius Sea Temperature and Fishing Period Air Temperature and Fishing Season Date 6.1.3 Prediction of Central Fishing Grounds Prediction of the Central Fishing Grounds for Katsuwonus pelamis (Skipjack Tuna) in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean Biological Overview of the Katsuwonus pelamis Fishery in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean Analysis of the Distribution of Katsuwonus pelamis Fishing Grounds in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean and Distribution P... Correlation of CPUE with Surface Sea Temperature CPUE Spatial-Temporal Distribution and Gravity Center Movement ENSO and the Movement of the Fishing Ground Gravity Center Relationship Between Fishing Ground Displacement and Sea Temperature Changes Changes in the Gravity Center of the Central Fishing Ground for Katsuwonus pelamis and Establishment of a Prediction Model Correlation Between Longitude and Latitude of the Quarterly Production Gravity Centers Each Year and the SSTA for the Nino 3.4... Relationship Between the Longitude Distribution of the Quarterly Production Gravity Centers Each Year and the SSTA for the Nin... Prediction Model for the Longitude of the Production Gravity Center of Katsuwonus pelamis Based on the SSTA Value Forecasting the Central Fishing Ground for O. bartramii Establishing a Forecast Model for the Central Fishing Ground of O. bartramii Comparison of the Distribution of the 20 and 15 C Isotherms in Each Month Warm-Water Branch Distribution of the Kuroshio Current Each Year and Its Relationship with the Gravity Center of Operating Fis... Forecast Model for Fishing Ground Movement 6.2 Catch Prediction 6.2.1 Catch Prediction Based on Multivariate Linear Regression: Case Studying for Largehead Hairtail (Trichiurus haumela) in t... 6.2.2 Catch Prediction Based on the Grey System Principles of Grey Dynamic Modeling The GM (n, 1) Model The GM (1, h) Model The GM (1, 1) Model Grey Disaster Prediction Testing Methods for the Grey Prediction Model Testing Method with Absolute Correlation Testing Method with the MSE Ratio and Small Error Probability Cases of Catch Prediction with the Grey System Catch Prediction Based on Grey Theory: Case Studying for Penaeus chinensis Yield in the Bohai Sea Prediction of the Abundance of the Eel Fry Catch 6.3 Prediction of Abundance or Abundance Index 6.3.1 Prediction of the Abundance of O. bartramii in the North Pacific Ocean Relationship Between the Year-to-Year Variation in the SST of Spawning Grounds and Resource Abundance Relationship Between the Year-to-Year Variation in the SST of Feeding Grounds and Resource Abundance Relationship Between Resource Abundance and Mean SST Anomaly Value 6.3.2 Prediction of the Abundance of Argentine Shortfin Squid (Illex argentinus) in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean Correlation Analysis and the Selection of Key Areas Forecast Model Realization and Comparison of the Results Multivariate Linear Model EBP Forecast Model 6.3.3 Prediction of the Recruitment of Dosidicus gigas in the Southeast Pacific Ocean Analysis of the Characteristic Environmental Factors Forecast Model Realization and Comparison of the Results 6.3.4 Prediction of the Abundance of Antarctic Krill (Euphausia superba) Variations in Euphausia superba Catch Year-to-Year and Seasonal Changes in Sea Ice in the Spring and Winter (July to November) Establishment of the Relationship Between the CPUE for Krill and Sea Ice in the Winter and Spring (July to November) and the R... References 7: Effects of Global Climate Changes on Marine Fishery Resources 7.1 Current Status of Marine Fishery Development in the World 7.1.1 Development of Marine Fishery 7.1.2 Status of Marine Fishery Development in Each Statistical Area by FAO Northwest Pacific Ocean Northeast Pacific Ocean Western Central Pacific Ocean Eastern Central Pacific Ocean Southwest Pacific Ocean Southeast Pacific Ocean Northwest Atlantic Ocean Northeast Atlantic Ocean Western Central Atlantic Ocean Eastern Central Atlantic Ocean Southwest Atlantic Ocean Southeast Atlantic Ocean The Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea East Indian Ocean West Indian Ocean Antarctic Sea 7.2 Overview of Changes in the Global Marine Environment 7.2.1 Global Climate Warming and Its Effects on the Marine Ecosystem The Concept of Global Warming and Its Causes Trends in Global Warming and the Consequences Effects of Global Warming on the Marine Ecosystem 7.2.2 Ocean Acidification and Its Harm to Marine Biological Resources The Concept of Ocean Acidification and Its Causes The Concept of Ocean Acidification Causes of Ocean Acidification The Harm of Ocean Acidification Effects on Phytoplankton Effects on Coral Reefs Effects on Mollusks Effects on Fish Effects on Marine Fisheries 7.2.3 Phenomena of Global Climate Change with Greater Effects on Fisheries El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Oceanic Warm Pool and Cold Pool Aleutian Low North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 7.3 Effects of Climate Change on the Fishing Grounds for the World´s Main Species 7.3.1 Tuna 7.3.2 Saury 7.3.3 Chilean Jack Mackerel 7.3.4 Peruvian Anchovy 7.3.5 Cod 7.3.6 Salmonids 7.3.7 Cephalopods References