ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021.

Description

Foreword Acknowledgements Table of contents Reader’s guide How to read the ITF Transport Outlook 2021 Glossary Executive summary Background Findings Policy insights Align Covid-19 recovery packages to revive the economy, combat climate change and strengthen equity Implement much more ambitious policies that will reverse the growth of transport CO2 emissions Target different transport sectors with strategies that reflect their specific decarbonisation potential and challenges Support innovation to accelerate the technological breakthroughs needed to decarbonise transport Shift the priority to improving accessibility Intensify collaboration with non-transport sectors and between public and private actors 1 Reshaping transport for a cleaner environment and fairer societies Inequality and climate change: The twin challenge Transport and well-being: The underrated link Transport CO2 emissions: Significant and growing Tackling emissions and inequality together Ensuring aligned policies Shifting focus from mobility to accessibility Collaborating for faster progress Shaping tomorrow’s transport: The pandemic as a reset? The human dimension: Catering for diversity in transport The economic dimension: Recovery under uncertainty Key takeaways References 2 Pathways to decarbonise transport by 2050 Recover, Reshape, Reshape+: Three possible futures for transport Measures to decarbonise transport: Avoid, shift, improve Transport demand: Growth continues Passenger transport demand Freight transport demand Transport emissions and climate goals: Can we still get there? The impact of an economic lag on CO2 emissions Transport emissions and social equity: Who pays for decarbonisation? Key takeaways References 3 Urban passenger transport: Cities can make mobility sustainable, equitable and resilient Decarbonising urban passenger transport: The state of play How can cities handle growing mobility demand? Mastering the pandemic: Challenges and opportunities for urban mobility after Covid-19 Cities at a standstill Recovery risks – and opportunities Recover, Reshape, Reshape+: Three possible futures for urban passenger transport Urban mobility in the Recover scenario Paradigm change: urban mobility in the Reshape scenario Reshape+: Reinforcing Reshape Demand for urban travel: Managing mobility in growing cities CO2 emissions from urban mobility: Improved services, smaller carbon footprint Equity and well-being: Accessible cities and resilient networks Ambitious decarbonisation and accessibility for all The higher the decarbonisation policy ambition, the higher the resilience of the system Policy recommendations Empower cities to decarbonise urban mobility and enhance accessibility to improve well-being Prioritise funding for sustainable urban transport over investment in city roads Improve the quality of public transport to create more inclusive and reliable services Pursue integrated land-use and transport planning for sustainable, neighbourhood-based urban development Create incentives for greening urban vehicle fleets Nurture transport innovation and collaborate with providers of new urban mobility services to maximise benefits and minimise costs Combine transport decarbonisation and resilience measures now to meet future demand in sustainable ways and withstand disruptions References 4 Non-urban passenger transport: A pivotal sector for greening transport Decarbonising non-urban passenger transport: The state of play Mastering the pandemic: Challenges and opportunities for non-urban mobility after Covid-19 How Covid-19 has changed travel behaviour The impact of Covid-19 on the decarbonisation of non-urban passenger transport Recover, Reshape, Reshape+: Three possible futures for non-urban passenger transport Non-urban passenger transport in the Recover scenario Paradigm change: Non-urban transport in the Reshape scenario Reshape+: Reinforcing Reshape Demand for non-urban passenger transport: Quick recovery and continued growth Air travel will dominate intercity trips Global transport activity is shifting to Asia CO2 emissions from non-urban passenger transport: Decoupling emissions from demand Well-to-tank emissions become more important OECD countries have the greatest potential to decarbonise Fair decarbonisation: Reducing non-urban passenger emissions in equitable ways Environmental equity of transport decisions Carbon taxes must not harm the less well-off Quantifying the equitability of non-urban transport Policy recommendations Increase the price of high-carbon non-urban transport to encourage clean alternatives Create Covid-19 recovery packages that boost sustainable non-urban transport Align decarbonisation policies across the transport and energy sectors to reflect the reliance of zero-carbon transport on clean energy Mandate the use of alternative fuels in aviation to encourage long-term innovation Incentivise the transition to low-emission non-urban road transport by making it more affordable and through measures that increase consumer confidence in cleaner options Invest proactively in technological developments beyond the transport sector to ensure wide-scale availability of new technologies for a comprehensive decarbonisation roll out References Note 5 Freight transport: Bold action can decarbonise movement of goods Decarbonising freight transport: The state of play Freight’s main challenges Three steps towards decarbonising freight Mastering the pandemic: Challenges and opportunities for freight after Covid-19 Recover, Reshape, Reshape+: Three possible futures for freight transport Freight transport in the Recover scenario Paradigm change: Freight transport in the Reshape scenario Reshape+: Reinforcing Reshape Demand for freight: Substantial growth at a slower pace CO2 emissions from freight transport: Reversing emission growth Equitable freight decarbonisation: Avoiding regional imbalances More resilience, less carbon and lower costs with the right policy mix Policy recommendations Design stimulus packages that align to support economic recovery, freight decarbonisation and supply chain resilience Align price incentives with freight decarbonisation ambitions for carrier buy-in Scale-up ready-to-adopt freight decarbonisation measures quickly to cut costs and emissions Strengthen international co-operation to combat freight emissions Accelerate standardisation procedures to speed-up the adoption of new clean technologies Tailor decarbonisation pathways to regional realities to address gaps in standard solutions Broaden access to privately owned data to improve policy design References Annex A. Statistical Annex