Modelling our Changing World

Description

This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth. Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. Front Matter ....Pages i-xix Introduction (Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry)....Pages 1-4 Key Concepts: A Series of Primers (Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry)....Pages 5-36 Why Is the World Always Changing? (Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry)....Pages 37-46 Making Trends and Breaks Work to Our Advantage (Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry)....Pages 47-65 Detectives of Change: Indicator Saturation (Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry)....Pages 67-84 The Polymath: Combining Theory and Data (Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry)....Pages 85-99 Seeing into the Future (Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry)....Pages 101-116 Conclusions: The Ever-Changing Way Forward (Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry)....Pages 117-120 Back Matter ....Pages 121-129