The Foundations of Econometric Analysis

Description

Contents (vii)......Page 5 Preface (xi)......Page 9 Acknowledgements (xiii)......Page 11 Introduction (1)......Page 15 I. The Emerging Role of Econometrics in Economics (83)......Page 97 1. JN Keynes (1981) The Scope and Method of Political Economy......Page 98 2. Mitchell (1913) Business Cycles (91)......Page 104 3. Moore (1914) Economic Cycles — Their Law and Cause (95)......Page 108 4. Robbins (1932) An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science (98)......Page 111 5. Schumpeter (1933) The Common Sense of Econometrics (103)......Page 116 II. Early Time-Series Analysis (111)......Page 123 6. Jevons (1862) On the Study of Periodic Commercial Fluctuations (113)......Page 124 7. Hooker (1901) Correlation of the Marriage-Rate with Trade (122)......Page 133 8. Persons (1910) The Correlation of Economic Statistics (130)......Page 141 9. Yule (1926) Why do we sometimes get Nonsense Correlations between Time-Series? (141)......Page 152 10. Yule (1927) On a Method of Investigating Periodicities in Disturbed Series, with Special Reference to Wolfer's Sunspot Numbers (159)......Page 170 11. Working (1934) A Random-Difference Series for Use in the Analysis of Time Series (166)......Page 177 12. Wald (1936) Calculation and Elimination of Seasonal Fluctuations (175)......Page 186 13. Marget (1929) Morgenstern on the Methodology of Economic (180)......Page 191 III. Applied Econometrics and the Identification Problem (191)......Page 202 14. Lehfeldt (1914) The Elasticity of the Demand for Wheat (193)......Page 203 15. Moore (1914) Economic Cycles - Their Law and Cause (198)......Page 208 16. Wright (1915) Review of Moore, 'Economic Cycles' (206)......Page 216 17. Lenoir (1913) Variation of Supply and Demand Curves: Influences on Prices (214)......Page 224 18. Moore (1925) A Moving Equilibrium of Demand and Supply (218)......Page 228 19. Wright (1929) Review of Schultz, 'Statistical Laws of Demand and Supply' (225)......Page 235 20. Tinbergen (1930) Determination and Interpretation of Supply Curves: An Example (233)......Page 243 IV. The Evolution of Statistical Thinking in Econometrics (247)......Page 256 21. Schultz (1928) Statistical Laws of Demand and Supply with Special Application to Sugar (249)......Page 257 22. Marschak/Leontief/Frisch/Leontief/Marschak (1934) 'Pitfalls' Debate (257)......Page 265 23. Frisch (1934) Statistical Confluence Analysis by Means of Complete Regression Systems (271)......Page 279 24. Koopmans (1937) Linear Regression Analysis of Economic Time Series (274)......Page 282 25. Tinbergen (1939) Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories: A Method and Its Application to Investment Activity (292)......Page 300 26. Reiersøl (1945) Residual Variables in Regression and Confluence Analysis (299)......Page 307 V. Dynamic Models (307)......Page 315 27. Fisher (1925) Our Unstable Dollar and the So-Called Business Cycle (309)......Page 316 28. Tinbergen (1933) The Notions of Horizon and Expectancy in Dynamic Economics (322)......Page 329 29. Frisch (1933) Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems in Dynamic Economics (333)......Page 340 30. Tinbergen (1939) Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories: Business Cycles in the United States of America, 1919–1932 (347)......Page 354 31. Wold (1947) Statistical Estimation of Economic Relationships (352)......Page 359 32. Frisch (1949) Prolegomena to a Pressure-Analysis of Economic Phenomena (355)......Page 362 VI. The Tinbergen Debate (359)......Page 366 33. Tinbergen (1939) Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories: A Method and its Application to Investment Activity (361)......Page 367 34. Keynes (1939) Professor Tinbergen's Method (382)......Page 388 35. Marschak & Lange (1940) Mr Keynes on the Statistical Verification of Business Cycle Theories (390)......Page 396 36. Tinbergen (1940) Econometric Business Cycle Research (399)......Page 405 37. Frisch (1938) Autonomy of Economic Relations and Tinbergen's (1938) reply (407)......Page 413 VII. Structure and Simultaneity (425)......Page 430 38. Marschak (1942) Economic Interdependence and Statistical Analysis (427)......Page 431 39. Haavelmo (1944) The Probability Approach in Econometrics (440)......Page 444 40. Haavelmo (1943) The Statistical Implications of a System of Simultaneous Equations (454)......Page 458 41. Wold (1947) Statistical Estimation of Economic Relationships (464)......Page 468 VIII. The Probabilistic Revolution (475)......Page 478 42. Haavelmo (1944) The Probability Approach in Econometrics (477)......Page 479 43. Koopmans/Vining/Hastay (1947, 1949, 1951) 'Measurement without Theory' Debate (491)......Page 493 Index (552)......Page 553