Model-Based Demography: Essays on Integrating Data, Technique and Theory

Description

Late in a career of more than sixty years, Thomas Burch, an internationally known social demographer, undertook a wide-ranging methodological critique of demography. This open access volume contains a selection of resulting papers, some previously unpublished, some published but not readily accessible [from past meetings of The International Union for the Scientific Study of Population and its research committees, or from other small conferences and seminars]. Rejecting the idea that demography is simply a branch of applied statistics, his work views it as an autonomous and complete scientific discipline. When viewed from the perspective of modern philosophy of science, specifically the semantic or model-based school, demography is a balanced discipline, with a rich body of techniques and data, but also with more and better theories than generally recognized. As demonstrated in this book, some demographic techniques can also be seen as theoretical models, and some substantive/behavioral models, commonly rejected as theory because of inconsistent observations, are now seen as valuable theoretical models, for example demographic transition theory. This book shows how demography can build a strong theoretical edifice on its broad and deep empirical foundation by adoption of the model-based approach to science. But the full-fruits of this approach will require demographers to make greater use of computer modeling [both macro- and micro-simulation], in the statement and manipulation of theoretical ideas, as well as for numerical computation. This book is open access under a CC BY license. Front Matter ....Pages i-xviii Front Matter ....Pages 1-1 Demography in a New Key: A Theory of Population Theory (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 3-19 Data, Models, Theory and Reality: The Structure of Demographic Knowledge (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 21-42 Computer Modeling of Theory: Explanation for the Twenty-First Century (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 43-65 Computer Simulation and Statistical Modeling: Rivals or Complements? (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 67-77 Does Demography Need Differential Equations? (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 79-94 Front Matter ....Pages 95-95 Theory, Computers and the Parameterization of Demographic Behavior (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 97-110 Estimating the Goodman, Keyfitz and Pullum Kinship Equations: An Alternative Procedure (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 111-119 The Life Table as a Theoretical Model (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 121-128 Cohort Component Projection: Algorithm, Technique, Model and Theory (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 129-133 The Cohort-Component Population Projection: A Strange Attractor for Demographers (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 135-151 Front Matter ....Pages 153-153 Teaching Demography: Ten Principles and Two Rationales (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 155-166 Teaching the Fundamentals of Demography: A Model-Based Approach to Fertility (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 167-177 On Teaching Demography: Some Non-traditional Guidelines (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 179-185 Front Matter ....Pages 187-187 Concluding Thoughts (Thomas K. Burch)....Pages 189-193 Back Matter ....Pages 195-200