Simulating Societal Change: Counterfactual Modelling for Social and Policy Inquiry

Description

This book presents a method for creating a working model of society, using data systems and simulation techniques, that can be used for testing propositions of scientific and policy nature. The model is based on the example of New Zealand, but will be applicable to other countries. It is expected that collaborators in other countries can emulate this example with their data systems for teaching and policy purposes, producing a cross-national "collaboratory". This enterprise will evolve with, and to a degree independently of, the book itself, with a supporting website as well as teaching and scientific initiatives. Readers of this text will, for the first time, have a simulation-based working model of society that can be interrogated for policy and substantive purposes. This book will appeal to researchers and professionals from various disciplines working within the social sciences, particularly on matters of demography and public policy. Front Matter ....Pages i-ix Introduction (Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee)....Pages 1-9 Conceptual and Analytical Foundations (Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee)....Pages 11-20 SociaLab: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model (Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee)....Pages 21-31 Tracking Societal Change: Its Major Components (Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee)....Pages 33-40 Data Preparation (Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee)....Pages 41-66 Statistical Analysis (Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee)....Pages 67-80 Simulation (Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee)....Pages 81-95 The “Seven Ages”: A Framework for Social and Policy Issues (Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee)....Pages 97-111 Tracking Societal Change: Descriptive Results (Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee)....Pages 113-127 “What If?”: Counterfactual Modelling with SociaLab (Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee)....Pages 129-151 Conclusion (Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee)....Pages 153-165 Back Matter ....Pages 167-245