Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure: Neodeterministic (NDSHA) Approach Guarantees Prevention Rather Than Cure

Description

Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure: Neodeterministic (NDSHA) Approach Guarantees Prevention Rather Than Cure communicates in one comprehensive volume the state-of-the-art scientific knowledge on earthquakes and related risks. Earthquakes occur in a seemingly random way and, in some cases, it is possible to trace seismicity back to the concept of deterministic chaos. Therefore, seismicity can be explained by a deterministic mechanism that arises as a result of various convection movements in the Earth’s mantle, expressed in the modern movement of lithospheric plates fueled by tidal forces. Consequently, to move from a perspective focused on the response to emergencies to a new perspective based on prevention and sustainability, it is necessary to follow this neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) to guarantee prevention, saving lives and infrastructure. This book describes in a complete and consistent way an effective explanation to complex structures, systems, and components, and prescribes solutions to practical challenges. It reflects the scientific novelty and promises a feasible, workable, theoretical and applicative attitude. Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure serves a “commentary role” for developers and designers of critical infrastructure and unique installations. Commentary-like roles follow standard, where there is no standard. Mega-installations embody/potentiate risks; nonetheless, lack a comprehensive classic standard. Every compound is unique, one of its kind, and differs from others even of similar function. There is no justification to elaborate a common standard for unique entities. On the other hand, these specific installations, for example, NPPs, Naval Ports, Suez Canal, HazMat production sites, and nuclear waste deposits, impose security and safety challenges to people and the environment. The book offers a benchmark for entrepreneurs, designers, constructors, and operators on how to compile diverse relevant information on site-effects and integrate it into the best-educated guess to keep safe and secure, people and environment. The authors are eager to convey the entire information and explanations to our readers, without missing either accurate information or explanations. That is achieved by “miniaturization,” as much is possible, not minimization. So far, the neodeterministic method has been successfully applied in numerous metropolitan areas and regions such as Delhi (India), Beijing (China), Naples (Italy), Algiers (Algeria), Cairo (Egypt), Santiago de Cuba (Cuba), Thessaloniki (Greece), South-East Asia (2004), Tohoku, Japan (2011), Albania (2019), Bangladesh, Iran, Sumatra, Ecuador, and elsewhere. Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure includes case studies from these areas, as well as suggested applications to other seismically active areas around the globe. NDSHA approaches confirm/validate that science is looming to warn. Concurrently, leaders and practitioners have to learn to use rectified science in favor of peoples' safety. State-of-the-art science does have the know-how to reduce casualties and structural damage from potential catastrophes to a bearable incident. Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure Copyright Dedication Contributors About the editors Preface 1. Hazard, risks, and prediction 1. Introduction 2. The core seed of disaster 3. What do we know about earthquakes? 4. Seismic hazard and associated risks 5. Prediction 6. Discussion and conclusions Acknowledgments References 2. Seismic hazard assessment from the perspective of disaster prevention Part I: Requirements and state of the art Outline placeholder 1. Introduction 2. Disaster resilient design—requirements to seismic hazard analysis 2.1 Terminology 2.2 Seismic hazard analysis for a disaster-resilient design—requirements 2.2.1 Requirement of conservative realism 2.2.2 Requirement of validation of results. Empirical control 2.2.3 Requirement of robustness or time invariance 2.2.4 Requirement of the minimization of interface issues between SHA and the intended use of the results 2.2.5 Requirement of traceability and logical consistency 2.2.6 Summary and conclusions 3. Evaluation of the state of the art 3.1 Probabilistic versus deterministic seismic hazard analysis—an historic perspective 3.2 Suitability of (N)DSHA for the development of disaster-resilient design of SSC 3.3 Nonsuitability of PSHA for the development of disaster-resilient design of SSC 4. Summary and conclusions Acknowledgments References Part II: Procedure and practical example Outline placeholder 1. Introduction 2. Methodology for the development of a disaster-resilient design of critical infrastructures 2.1 Summary description of the methodology 2.2 Derivation of safety factor 2.3 Performance-based design 3. Practical application for the development of the seismic design basis for seismic upgrades of nuclear power plant Goesgen 3.1 Motivation for the reassessment of the seismic design basis 3.2 Evaluation of seismo-tectonic features 3.3 Evaluation of historical events 3.4 Incorporation of safety factor applying “Black Swan” theory Acknowledgments References 3. The view of a structural engineer about reliable seismic hazard assessment 1. Introduction 2. A set of inconsistent myths 2.1 Italy (and old history countries) versus the United States 2.2 Probability 2.3 Computational tricks 2.4 Earthquake on demand 2.5 Digitalization of ignorance 3. Weaknesses in current seismic design philosophy 3.1 Behavior factor and design for damage 3.2 Cost evaluation 3.3 Informing the population 4. Reliable seismic hazard 5. Conclusions References Further reading 4. Disaster prediction and civil preparedness 1. Introduction 2. Effective prediction time 3. An unbridgeable gap between response capabilities and scale of losses 3.1 Discussion: the conceptual revolution 3.2 Timing is a function of viable prediction 3.3 Civil preparedness: broad-spectrum merits 3.4 Earthquake hazards 3.5 National earthquake time-line initiative 3.5.1 Given months 3.5.2 Given weeks 4. Increase cooperation with the international emergency response system 5. Given days 5.1 Reduce the quantity of hazardous materials within the disaster-prone area, close to inhabitants 5.2 Activate national programs aimed at retrofitting nonstructural elements, based on predefined methods (Government of Israel, ... 5.3 Avoid unsafe buildings 6. Given seconds—minutes—hours 6.1 Temporarily desert high-risky buildings and move to a safer location, for example, air-raid shelters 6.2 Advise people to avoid inexpedient gatherings; celebrate outdoor, rather than indoor 7. Given years one cannot 8. Conclusion References 5. The integration between seismology and geodesy for intermediate-term narrow-range earthquake prediction according to NDSHA 1. Introduction 2. Time independent narrow-range signatures for earthquake prediction: a geodetic GNSS-based approach 2.1 The geodetic approach 2.2 The contribution of earthquake forecasting: where to look for strain accumulation 2.3 Applications in Italy 3. Intermediate-term narrow-range earthquake prediction: the benefit of geodesy and seismology synergy 4. Conclusions and future perspectives References Further reading 6. Modeling the block-and-fault structure dynamics with application to studying seismicity and geodynamics 1. Introduction 2. Brief description of the BAFD model 2.1 Block structure 2.2 Dynamics of the block structure 2.3 Earthquake and creep 3. Summary of the results obtained by means of the BAFD model 3.1 Study of features of the synthetic seismicity 3.2 Application of the BAFD model to specific regions 4. Discussion and conclusion Acknowledgments References 7. Morphostructural zoning for identifying earthquake-prone areas 1. Introduction 2. Morphostructural zoning: basic definitions and an application for the Italian region 3. Nodes and earthquakes 4. Identification of seismogenic nodes by pattern recognition 4.1 Recognition of seismogenic nodes in the Italian region 5. Validity of the methodology 6. Conclusions Acknowledgments References 8. Earthquake forecasting and time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in Italy and surroundings 1. Introduction 2. Intermediate-term middle-range earthquake predictions based on precursory seismicity patterns 3. Earthquake forecasting by CN and M8S algorithms in Italy 3.1 Algorithm CN in Italy 3.2 Algorithm M8S in Italy 3.3 Prospective testing and statistical significance of CN and M8S forecasts 4. Neo-deterministic time-dependent seismic hazard scenarios for the Italian territory 5. Discussion and conclusions Acknowledgments References 9. Spreading NDSHA application from Italy to other areas 1. Introduction 2. Rome 3. Valparaìso 4. Trieste 5. Discussion Acknowledgments References 10. S-wave velocity profiling for site response evaluation in urban areas 1. Introduction 2. Methodologies 2.1 Noise cross-correlation technique 2.2 FTAN method 2.3 Hedgehog nonlinear inversion 3. Noise cross-correlation experiments for the definition of VS models 3.1 Geological setting of the study areas 3.2 Data analysis 4. VS models 5. Site effects 6. Conclusions References 11. A user-friendly approach to NDSHA computations 1. Introduction 2. Once upon a (CPU) time… 2.1 Regional scale hazard 2.2 Local scale ground shaking scenarios 3. Back to the future 4. Toward user friendliness 4.1 1nput data preparati0n 4.2 From the terminal to the browser 5. XeRiS 5.1 Structure panel 5.2 Eigen panel 5.3 Source panel 5.4 Parametric panel 5.5 Scenario panel 5.6 Fault Scenario panel 5.7 2D Scenario panel 5.8 Sites panel 5.9 MCSI panel 5.10 Regional hazard panel 6. Conclusions References 12. Recent applications of NDSHA: seismic input for high rise buildings in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital 1. Introduction 2. Methodology 3. Input data for hazard computation 3.1 Earthquake catalog 3.2 Seismogenic zones and nodes 3.3 Lithospheric model 4. Ground shaking scenarios 4.1 Ground shaking at a regional scale 4.2 Response spectra computation 5. Conclusions Acknowledgments References 13. Neodeterministic method to assess the seismic performance of water distribution networks 1. Introduction 2. Resilience of water distribution network 3. Case study 3.1 Water distribution network 3.2 Model description 3.3 Numerical results and lesson learned 4. Conclusion Acknowledgments References 14. Seismic hazard analysis in a historical context: experience at caltrans and elsewhere 1. Introduction 2. Deterministic approach used in California from early 1970s to date 2.1 First hazard map (1974): maximum credible rock accelerations from earthquakes in California 2.2 Second hazard map (1992): peak acceleration from maximum credible earthquakes in California (rock and stiff-soil sites) 2.3 Third hazard map (1996): California seismic hazard map 1996 2.4 Comments on some earthquake sources 3. Oppositions to the MCE-based seismic hazards 4. A remarkable negative experience 5. Other experience 6. Two favorite recollections 7. Concluding remarks, questions, and suggestions 8. Questions 9. Suggestions Abbreviations Acknowledgments References Appendix: comments on terms and descriptions based on my experience 15. Where there is no science – probabilistic hazard assessment in volcanological and nuclear waste settings: facts, needs, and ... 1. Introduction 2. Hazard and volcanic risk to Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei 2.1 Somma-Vesuvius 2.2 Unclear CPD decisions for the definition of pyroclastic flow risk areas at Somma-Vesuvius 2.3 Campi Flegrei 2.4 Concluding comments on Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei 3. Radioactive waste storage in salt formations at Scanzano Jonico site (southern Italy) 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Radioactive waste 3.3 Nature and meaning of fluids in salt 3.4 Fluid inclusions in minerals 3.5 Migration of inclusions as a function of the thermal gradient 3.6 Composition of fluid inclusions 3.7 Results of the site safety assessments after its definitive closure 3.8 Conclusions regarding storage of the nuclear waste in US saline deposits 3.9 The Scanzano Jonico site 4. Conclusions References 16. Seismic hazard and earthquake engineering for engineering community 1. Consequences of earthquakes 2. Seismic hazard 2.1 Deterministic seismic hazard analysis and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis 2.2 Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment 2.3 Proposals to implement NDSHA in the engineering community 3. Earthquake mitigation measures and modern earthquake engineering 4. Motivations of offshore earthquake engineering 5. Closing remarks References Further reading 17. Scenario-based seismic hazard analysis and its applications in the central United States 1. Introduction 2. Scenario seismic hazard analysis 3. Scenario ground motions and hazard maps for Kentucky 3.1 Stochastic point-source model and scenario seismic hazard analysis 3.2 Composite source model and scenario seismic hazard analysis 3.3 Potential ground-motion hazards from induced earthquakes 4. Discussion 5. Conclusions Acknowledgments References 18. NDSHA achievements in Central and South-eastern Europe 1. Introduction—reliable seismic hazard assessment—a prerequisite for building disaster-resilient and environmentally friendly ... 2. The NDSHA multiaspect power 2.1 The earthquake lessons 2.2 The NDSHA evaluation concept 2.3 The successful experience motivating NDSHA 2.3.1 Seismic zoning at national level 2.3.2 Seismic zoning—metropolitan areas 3. Conclusive remarks References 19. Application of NDSHA to historical urban areas 1. Introduction 2. Case study of Poggio Picenze (Abruzzo region, central Italy) 2.1 Earth model propagation 2.2 Ground motion modeling 3. Case study of Napoli (Campania region, southern Italy) 3.1 Computing sections at the historical center 3.2 Ground motion modeling for the 1980 earthquake 3.3 Ground motion modeling for the 1456 and 1688 earthquakes 3.4 Discussion of results 4. Conclusions References 20. Insights from neo-deterministic seismic hazard analyses in Romania 1. Introduction 2. Seismicity and earthquake source zones in Romania 3. Seismic hazard at national scale 4. Seismic hazard at local scale 5. Discussion and conclusion Acknowledgments References 21. NDSHA in Bulgaria 1. Introduction 2. NDSHA applications in Bulgaria 3. Sofia NDSHA case study 4. Russe NDSHA case study 4.1 Seismic wave pathway model 4.2 Numerical experiments 5. Conclusive remarks References Further reading 22. NDSHA-based vulnerability evaluation of precode buildings in Republic of North Macedonia: novel experiences 1. Introduction 2. Experiences and motivation—a chronological overview 3. Seismowall research project 3.1 Idea and concept 3.2 Local hazard definition using NDSHA 3.2.1 Seismic hazard maps 3.2.2 Spectra definition 3.3 Comparison with EC design spectra 4. Case study 4.1 Description of the building 4.2 Structural response 4.3 Vulnerability and reliability curves 5. Conclusions References 23. Seismic characterization of Tirana–Durrës–Lezha region (northwestern Albania) and analysis effort through NSHDA method 1. Introduction 2. Geological and tectonic background of the study area 3. Definition of the structural model 4. Seismic zonation 5. Method and results 6. Discussions References 24. Regional application of the NDSHA approach for continental seismogenic sources in the Iberian Peninsula 1. Introduction 2. NDSHA application at regional scale 3. Seismicity in the Iberian Peninsula 4. Application of NDSHA in the Iberian Peninsula 4.1 Earthquake catalog 4.2 Seismogenic zones 4.3 Seismogenic nodes 4.4 Focal mechanisms 4.5 Structural models 5. NDSHA results 6. Conclusions References 25. NDSHA applied to China 1. Continental earthquakes and disaster risk: challenges and scientific problems 2. Earthquake forecast/prediction in China: scientific practices and products 3. NDSHA applied to China 3.1 Application in North China 3.2 Application in CSES and adjacent areas 4. Discussion and future perspectives Funding References 26. Application of neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment to India 1. Introduction 2. NDSHA application at national scale 3. NDSHA application at regional scale 4. NDSHA application at local scale (seismic microzonation) 5. Conclusion Acknowledgments References 27. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment for Pakistan 1. Introduction 2. Input data 2.1 Structural models 2.2 Catalog 2.3 Seismogenic zones 2.4 Fault plane solutions 3. Methodology 3.1 Computations 4. Results 5. Comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps 6. Conclusion Acknowledgments References 28. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment studies for Bangladesh 1. Introduction 2. Seismic zoning map 3. NDSHA studies at national scale 3.1 Earthquake catalog 3.2 Seismogenic zones 3.3 Fault plane solutions 3.4 Structural models 3.5 Numerical computations 4. NDSHA studies for scenario earthquakes 5. NDSHA studies for scenario earthquakes using maximum credible seismic input method 6. Conclusions Acknowledgments References 29. Application of NDSHA at regional and local scale in Iran 1. Introduction 2. NDSHA for Alborz region 3. Local NDSHA validation in Tehran city 4. Conclusion Acknowledgments References 30. Application of neodeterministic seismic hazard analysis to Sumatra 1. Introduction 2. Regional scale NDSHA for Sumatra 2.1 Seismic sources definition 2.2 Structural models definition 2.3 Results 3. Local scale NDSHA—application to Banda Aceh city 4. Discussion and conclusions Acknowledgments References Author Index A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z Subject Index A B C D E F G H I K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Z