Climate, Chaos and Collective Behaviour: A Rising Fickleness

Description

This book introduces principles of Chaos theory (and Complex Adaptive Systems) to social science, in a lively and elegant way. It applies it to the twin disciplines of mass psychology (under social psychology, mostly in Europe) and collective behavior sociology (mostly in North America) that deal with emergent psychosocial phenomena that lie outside conventional approaches. Each of the eleven chapters begins with a topical ‘case study’ section, on an issue related to climate change and collective behaviour, such as the ‘school strike’ by Swedish schoolgirl Greta Thunberg, the Hollywood movie The Day After Tomorrow, and more. This book aims to show that there are fundamental reasons why many phenomena cannot be easily ‘measured, predicted and controlled’, and thus we need to familiarize ourselves with alternative ways of thinking about them. Preface Praise for Collective Behavior and Public Opinion Contents About the Author Introduction: A New Vision Climate Change and New Pandemics Mass Psychology and Collective Behavior Sociology Part I: Mind Quakes 1: Public Opinion as a Complex Adaptive System (CAS) 1 Case # One: A Scandi Icon and the ‘Greta’ Effect 2 The Phenomenon of Public Opinion Public Opinion and Opinion Polls The Rise and Fall of Issues Emotional Coloring of Issues 3 The Meta-principle of Complex Mutation Newton’s Apple and Lorenz’s Butterfly The Holy Faith in CAS Regularity and Uncertainty 2: The Continuous Mutation of Informal Messages 1 Case # Two: Covid Rumors in Belgium and Elsewhere 2 The Phenomenon of Hearsay Gossip and Rumor Folklore and Legends Worldview and Group Formation 3 The Meta-principle of Continuous Mutation Transmission Diffusion Contagion Mutation A New Notion: Memes 3: Circular Reaction in Media Hypes 1 Case # Three: Hollywood Takes on Melting Ice and Rising Water 2 The Phenomenon of Media Hypes The Creation of the World in the News The Evolution of Media Hypes Media Hypes and the Status Quo 3 The Meta-Principle of Circular Reaction Self-Reinforcing Processes Self-Fulfilling Prophecies Cybernetics and Feedback Amplification and Circular Reaction Part II: Emerging Collective Behavior 4: The Formation of Synergy in Crowds 1 Case # Four: The Curfew Riots in the Netherlands 2 The Phenomenon of Psychological Crowds The Psychology of Crowds and Masses Deindividuation Theory The Convergence Approach 3 The Meta-Principle of Synergy Formation Movement and Convergence Fluctuation and Synchronization Rhythm and Resonance Synergy and Boosting 5: The Emergence of Patterns in Opinion Currents 1 Case # Five: Cambridge Analytica and the Surge in Anglo-american Isolationism 2 The Phenomenon of Opinion Currents The Sociology of Collective Behavior The “Natural History” of Opinion Currents Early Systems Theory 3 The Meta-principle of Emerging Patterns A Digression on Emerging Patterns in Nature Emergent Patterns in the Human Psyche Emergent Patterns in Social Exchange 6: The Self-Organization of Social Movements 1 Case # Six: XR: A British Social Movement The XR Scientists’ EPE Report 2 The Phenomenon of Social Movements Social Movements as Emergent Self-Organization Role Differentiation and Self-Organization Emerging Self-Organization and Established Organization 3 The Meta-Principle of Self-Organization A Digression on the Self-Organization of Organisms The Self-Organization of Groups of Organisms The Self-Organization of Groups of People Part III: Shifting Public Moods 7: The Evolving Context of Fashion and Fads 1 Case # Seven: From Fur to Fake 2 The Phenomenon of Fashion and Fads Fashion: The Joys of Expressing Oneself Fads, Manias, Crazes: The Joy of New Impressions 3 The Meta-principle of Evolving Contexts Nested Contexts An Excursion on Irreversible Time Regimes of Experience 8: Critical Thresholds in Fear and Panic 1 Case # Eight: The Fear of Contagion from the East 2 The Phenomenon Of Fear And Panic Panic After Disasters Panic After Phony Disasters Product Risks and Risk Perceptions Distortions and Shifts 3 The Meta-Principle Of Critical Thresholds An Excursion About Dominoes and Thresholds The Sandpile Model Contiguity and Critical Mass 9: Possible Attractors, in Outrage and Protest 1 Case # Nine: The French Popular Protests Against the Elite Environment (The ‘Yellow Vests’) 2 The Phenomenon of Outrage and Protest Collective Expression of Hostility Moral Panic Political Scandal Economic Boycott Shifts 3 The Meta-Principle of Possible Attractors An Excursion into Abstract Space Psychosocial Attractors Part IV: Conclusions 10: Phase Transitions in Crazes and Crashes 1 Case # Ten: Bulls and Bears on Stock Exchanges 2 The Phenomenon of Crazes and Crashes Greedy Masses Speculative Bubbles and Bursts Value Paper, Bears and Bulls Shifts and Gestalt Switches 3 The Meta-principle of Phase Transitions A Digression on Phases, Transitions, and Hypnons The Congestion Phase and the Braess Paradox Back to Animal Behavior and Swarms Mass and Collective Behavior as a Phase Transition 11: Prediction, Planning, and Fundamental Uncertainty 1 Case # Eleven: Nuclear Plants as a Supposed Panacea (Fukushima) 2 The Phenomenon of Forecasting Back to Yesterday’s Technological Future Back to Yesterday’s Economic Future Back to Yesterday’s Social Future Yesterday’s Predictions and Unpredictability 3 The Ultimate Meta-principle: Fundamental Uncertainty Infinite Detail, Fractals, and Immeasurability Unstable Equilibrium, Bifurcations, and Unpredictability Chance, Contingency, and Uncontrollability 12: Summary: Issues Management? References Author Index Subject Index