Managing Country Risk in an Age of Globalization

Description

This book provides an up-to-date guide to managing Country Risk. It tackles its various and interlinked dimensions including sovereign risk, socio-political risk, and macroeconomic risk for foreign investors, creditors, and domestic residents. It shows how they are accentuated in the global economy together with new risks such as terrorism, systemic risk, environmental risk, and the rising trend of global volatility and contagion. The book also assesses the limited usefulness of traditional yardsticks of Country Risk, such as ratings and rankings, which at best reflect the market consensus without predictive value and at worst amplify risk aversion and generate crisis contamination. This book goes further than comparing a wide range of risk management methods in that it provides operational and forward-looking warning signs of Country Risk. The combination of the authors’ academic and market-based backgrounds makes the book a useful tool for scholars, analysts, and practitioners. Front Matter ....Pages i-xxvii Assessing Risk in a Global Economy (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 1-19 What Is Country Risk? (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 21-52 Country Risk in the Age of Globalization: Cycles and Dynamics. A Review of Literature (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 53-92 Country Risk Assessment: The Key Role of Official Information Sources (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 93-125 Country Risk Assessment: The Role of Private Sources of Market and Economic Intelligence (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 127-165 Volatility, Spillovers, and Crisis Contamination: The New Dynamics of Country Risk Since the 1980s and 90s in the Globalized Market Economy (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 167-206 Fragility and Vulnerability of Integrated Areas (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 207-238 At the Root of Country Risk: The Balance of Payments from Liquidity to Solvency Crisis (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 239-263 Root Causes and Consequences of Political Risk: Defining Political Risk and Its Various Dimensions (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 265-287 The Root Causes and Consequences of Political Risk: From Bad Governance to Wealth and Political Power Concentration and Social Instability (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 289-318 Why Emerging Markets Do Not Hold a Monopoly on Country Risk in the Twenty-First Century: An Analysis of Monetary and Systemic Risks in the OECD and in the Euro-Zone (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 319-349 Country Risk and External Debt Sustainability (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 351-385 In Search of Early Warning Signals of Country Risk: Focusing on Market Price Signals (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 387-411 In Search of Early Warning Signals of Country Risk: Focusing on Capital Flight (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 413-442 Country Risk Mitigation Strategies (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 443-470 Glossary: The 200 Most Important Terms and Concepts for Country Risk Management (Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel)....Pages 471-499 Back Matter ....Pages 501-527