Decision-Making in Energy Systems

Description

This is a comprehensive book on how to make complex decisions on energy systems problems involving different technologies, environmental effects, costs, benefits, risks, and safety issues. Using Industrial and Systems Engineering techniques for decision-making in Energy Systems, the book provides the background knowledge and methods to incorporate multiple criteria involved in solving energy system problems. It offers methods, examples, and case studies illustrating applications. Decision-Making in Energy Systems discusses subjective as well as objective methods, approaches, and techniques taken from the systems and industrial engineering domain and puts them to use in solving energy systems problems. It uses an integrated approach by including effects of all technical, economic, environmental, and safety considerations as well as costs and risks. The book is specially designed for practicing engineers from industrial/systems engineering who work in energy systems engineering industries. Aimed at graduate students, researchers, and managers involved in various energy generating, distributing, and consuming companies, the book helps the reader to understand, evaluate, and decide on solutions to their energy-related problems. Cover Half Title Title Page Copyright Page Table of Contents Preface Author SECTION I: Core Building Blocks Chapter 1 Energy Systems, Problems, and Risks Introduction Problem-Solving Application Scientific Method (DAMES) in Engineering Problem-Solving: An Example Objectives of This Book Risk Taking Energy Systems Overview What Is a System? Example of an Energy System: A Power Grid Systems Work with Other Systems Understanding Problems in Energy System Area Societal and Customer Benefits from Energy Systems System Requirements Development Concept Development for a New System Systems Decomposition Function Allocation Risks in Energy Systems Understandings Risks Importance of Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Concluding Remarks References Chapter 2 The Energy Picture Introduction U.S. Total Energy Production and Consumption Customers of Electric Energy Electricity Generating Sources Transmission and Distribution of Energy Electricity Demand and Sources for Meeting the Demand Household Consumption Wasted Energy Generating Efficiency Energy Systems Issues Power Generation Technologies Nuclear Power Plants Hydroelectric Power Plants Fossil-Fuel-Fired Power Plants Diesel-Fired Power Plants Natural- Gas-Fired Combustion Turbine Plants Combined-Cycle Power Plants Solar Power Plants Wind Power Plants Geothermal Power Plants Tidal Power Plants Other Power Plant-Related Issues Energy Plant Inputs and Outputs Carbon Capture and Sequestration Power Plant Technology Specifications Plant Output and Heat Rate Plant Building and Operational Costs Capacity Factors Environmental Impacts of Electricity Generation Financial Incentives for Renewables and Energy Efficiencies JEDI Models U.S. Map Database with Energy Sources, Transmission, and Distribution EPA’s Power Profiler Future Changes in Energy Picture Annual Energy Outlook Increasingly Stringent Emissions and Green Energy Requirements Initiatives of Government Agencies to Combat Climate Change Reducing Carbon Emissions from Natural-Gas-Fueled Power Plants Concluding Remarks References Chapter 3 Risk Assessment Methods Introduction What Is Risk? Risk Analysis Perception of Risk Types of Risks Environmental Risks Cancer and Respiratory Problems Cleaner Air and Air Quality standards Risks in Product Development and Product Uses Risks during Product Development and Manufacturing Definition of Risk and Types of Risks in Product Development Types of Risks during Product Uses Methods for Risk Analysis Risk Matrix Risk Priority Number (PRN) Other Methods Failure Modes and Effects Analysis An Example of a FMEA Failure Modes and Effects and Criticality Analysis Problems in Risk Measurements Concluding Remarks References Chapter 4 Systems Engineering in Energy Systems Projects Introduction Why Systems Engineering? What Is Systems Engineering? Systems Engineering Definition Systems Engineering Approach and Process An Energy System Example: A Wind Farm Systems Engineering “V” Model Left Side of the “V” – Design and Engineering Right Side of the “V” – Verification, Manufacturing, and Assembly Right Side of the Diagram – Operation and Disposal Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) Contents of SEMP Checklist for Critical Information Role of Systems Engineers Value of Systems Engineering Management Plan Advantages of Management by System Attributes Concluding Remarks References Chapter 5 Safety Engineering in Energy Systems Introduction and Background Definition of Safety Engineering Safety Problems in Energy Systems Safety Engineering Approach Importance and Need of Safety Engineering 3Es of Safety Engineering and Countermeasures Methods Used in Safety Engineering Definition of an Accident Accident Causation Theories Safety Performance Measures Why Measure Safety Performance? Currently Used Accident Measures Accidents-Based Incident Rates Advantages and Disadvantages of Current Accident-Based Measures Non-Accident Measures Safety Analysis Methodologies Two Possibilities: Accident vs. Hazard Accident Analysis Methods Hazard Analysis Methods Hazard Analysis General Hazard Analysis Detailed Hazard Analysis Methods Safety Analysis Checklists to Uncover Hazards Risk Analysis Systems Safety Analysis Tools Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) Purpose Description Application of Boolean Algebra “AND” Gate "OR" Gate An Example: Reliability of Turbine Generator Units in a Power Plant Fault Tree Development Rules Fault Tree Example: Home Loses Power Advantages of Fault Tree Analysis Accident Data Analysis Tools Purpose of Accident Data Collection Flow of Accident Data Collection Accident Reporting Thresholds Accident Investigations Accident Data: Users and Sources Accident Databases Maintained by Federal Agencies Safety Performance Monitoring, Evaluation, and Control Interview and Observational Techniques for Non- Accident Measurement of Safety Performance Critical Incident Technique (CIT) Behavioral Sampling Control Charts Before vs. After Studies Security Considerations in Systems Design Concluding Remarks References SECTION II: Measurements, Analysis, and Decision-Making Chapter 6 Decision-Making Approaches Introduction Decision-Making Problem Formulation Alternatives, Outcomes, and Payoffs Decision Matrix Principles Used in Selection of an Alternative Maximum Expected Value Principle Other Principles Subjective vs. Objective Methods Subjective Methods Objective Methods Informational Needs in Decision-Making Importance of Early Decisions during System or Product Development Concluding Remarks References Chapter 7 Costs, Revenues, and Time Considerations Introduction Types of Costs Fixed Costs Variable Costs Overheads Safety and Accident Costs Environmental Costs Social Cost of Carbon Calculations Related to Social Cost of Carbon Social Cost of Methane (SC-CH[sub(4)]) and the Social Cost of Nitrous Oxide (SC-N[sub(2)]O) Levelized Cost of Technologies Levelized Cost of Electricity Levelized Avoided Cost of Electricity Benefits Revenues Power Purchase Agreements Avoided Costs Avoided Costs of Electricity Effect of Time on Costs and Revenues Effect of Time Utility Company Example: Present Value Calculations Concluding Remarks References Chapter 8 Cost–Benetfi Analysis Introduction Cost–Benefit Analysis: What Is It? Why Use Cost–Benefit Analysis? Steps Involved in Cost–Benefit Analysis Some Examples of Problems for Application of Cost–Benefit Analysis Cost–Benefit Analysis of Residential Solar Panels: An Example Problem Cost–Benefit Analysis and Calculations Installed Costs Operation and Maintenance Cost Insurance Present Value of Cost Avoided Electric Utility Cost SREC, Net Metering, and Tax Credit Revenue Net Present Value Conclusions of the Cost–Benefit Analyses Exercising Cost–Benefit Model for Sensitivity Analysis Risks and Uncertainties in Cost–Benefit Analysis Uncertainties Controversial Aspects Concluding Remarks References Chapter 9 Subjective Methods for Risk Assessment Introduction Rating on a Scale An Example of Rating Characteristics of Electricity Generating Power Plant Technologies Pugh Analysis An Example of Pugh Diagram Application Weighted Pugh Analysis Pugh Analysis to Select Energy Source for Electricity Generating Plants: An Example Alternate Energy Sources Alternative 1: Natural Gas Combined Cycle Alternative 2: Nuclear Power Plant Alternative 3: Biomass Plant Alternative 4: Wind Turbines Alternative 5: Solar Photovoltaic Power Plant Alternative 6: Hydroelectric Power Plant Datum: Coal Attributes Used for Pugh Analysis: Pugh Analysis Paired Comparison-Based Methods Thurstone’s Method of Paired Comparisons Step 1: Select a Criterion for Evaluation of the Attributes Step 2: Prepare Description of the Nine Attributes to Be Evaluated Step 3. Obtain Responses of Each Subject on All Pairs Step 4. Summarize Responses of All Subjects in Terms of Proportion of Subjects Who Rated the Attribute in the Column More Important than the Attribute in the Row Step 5: Summary of Response Ratios and Proportions Step 6: Adjusting p[sub(ij)] Values Step 7: Computation of Z-values and Scale Values for the Attributes Analytical Hierarchical Method Application of Analytical Hierarchy Method to a Multi-Attribute Problem Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Failure Modes and Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) Concluding Remarks References SECTION III: Customers, Governments, and Future Changes Chapter 10 Energy Users, Societal Needs, and Energy Providers Introduction Customer and Societal Needs Energy Uses and Demands Customers of Energy Systems Residential Customers Commercial Customers Industrial Customers Institutional Customers Transportation Customers Relationship of Customer Satisfaction, Energy Availability, and Safety Communication between Customers and Energy Providers Power Sector Issues Reliability of Power Sector Electricity Energy Sources Energy Providers Locations of Energy System Facilities Energy Prices Liability of Energy Providers Examples of Lawsuits Safety, Comfort, and Con venience-Related Special Needs Concluding Remarks References Chapter 11 Government Regulations Introduction U.S. Government Agencies Related to Energy US Department of Energy Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Energy Saving Initiatives DOE Initiatives NHTSA and EPA Initiatives Clean Air Act Control of Common Pollutants National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) Government Requirements in Safety, Emissions, and Fuel Economy Government Safety Requirements EPA’s GHG Emissions and NHTSA’s CAFE Standards Rationale Behind Footprint-based Standard Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator Concluding Remarks References Chapter 12 Meeting Future Automotive Fuel Economy and Emissions Requirements Introduction Creating a Technology Plan Risks in Technology Implementation New Technologies Design Trends in Powertrain Development Smaller, Lighter, and More Fuel-Efficient Gasoline Engines Higher Efficiency Transmissions Driver Aids and Safety Technologies Connected Vehicles or V2X Technologies Self-Driving Vehicles Light-Weighting Technologies Aerodynamic Drag Reduction Concluding Remarks References SECTION IV: Current Issues Facing the Energy Industries Chapter 13 Smart Grid Introduction What Is an Electric Grid? Challenges Facing the Power Grid What Is a Smart Grid? Minimize Electricity Disruption Giving Consumers Control Building and Testing the Smart Grid Grid Operation Centers Smart Meters Smart Grid Operation and Benefits Sampling for Monitoring and Controlling the Power Grid Data Sharing with Smart Grid The “Self-Healing” Grid Smart Grid Costs Concluding Remarks References Chapter 14 Electricity Storage Technologies Introduction Energy Storage Attributes of an Energy Storage System Trade-Offs Between Attributes Related to Energy Storage Systems Currently Available Energy Storage Technologies Mechanical Pumped Hydro Compressed Air Flywheel Solid Mass Gravitational Hydroelectricity Thermal Latent Heat Thermal Electrochemical Other Chemical Concluding Remarks References Chapter 15 Infrastructure Standardization for Electric Vehicles Introduction What Is Infrastructure for the Electric Vehicles? What Is Interoperability? Charging Stations and Chargers for the Electric Vehicles Charging Stations Types of Chargers Conductive Charging Wireless Charging Current Status of Charging Stations Advantages and Disadvantages of Electric Vehicles Concluding Remarks References SECTION V: Applications of Methods: Examples and Illustrations Chapter 16 Selection of Power Generation Alternatives Introduction The Problem Methodology Outputs of JEDI Models Computations of Costs and Benefits for Combinations of Alternatives and Outcomes Alternative 1: Building a 1429 MW Wind Turbine Plant Determining the Costs Determining the Potential Benefit for Each Outcome Determining Totals and Present Value of Costs and Benefits Calculating the Profit and Benefit- to-Cost Ratio for Each Alternative Across all Outcomes Compiling the Results into a Decision Matrix and Compare Alternatives Based on Their Expected Values of Profits and Benefit-to-Cost Ratios Alternative 2: Building a 575 MW Natural Gas-Fueled Power Plant Alternative 3: Building a 543 MW Geothermal Power Plant Alternative 4: Building a 2000 MW Concentrating Solar Power Plant Alternative 5: Not Building a New Power Plant Summary of Results Conclusions Observations from this Analysis and Improvements Concluding Remarks References Chapter 17 Sensitivity and Monte Carlo Analyses Introduction Sensitivity Analysis An Example of Profit from Sale of Electricity An Illustrative Example of Sensitivity Analysis with Four Alternatives and Four Outcomes Problem Selection of Plant Location (Q1) Issues and Risks (Q2) Alternatives and Outcomes (Q3) Cost–Benefit Analysis (Q4) Spreadsheets Results Sensitivity Analysis (Q5) Monte Carlo Simulation Technique An Example: Profit from Sale of Electricity Concluding Remarks References Appendix 1: Acronyms, Abbreviation, and Units Appendix 2: Cost–Benefit Analysis of PV Solar Electric Energy Systems for Residential Use Appendix 3: Fault Tree and Reliability Analysis Appendix 4: Decision-Making in Energy Systems Appendix 5: Cost–Benefit Analysis in Energy Systems Index