Link: How Decision Intelligence Connects Data, Actions, and Outcomes for a Better World

Description

Why aren't the most powerful new technologies being used to solve the world's most important problems: hunger, poverty, conflict, inequality, employment, disease? What's missing? From a pioneer in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning comes a thought-provoking book that answers these questions. In Link: How Decision Intelligence Connects Data, Actions, and Outcomes for a Better World, Dr. Lorien Pratt explores the solution that is emerging worldwide to take Artificial Intelligence to the next level: Decision Intelligence. Decision Intelligence (DI) goes beyond AI as well, connecting human decision makers in multiple areas like economics, optimization, big data, analytics, psychology, simulation, game theory, and more. Yet despite the sophistication of these approaches, Link shows how they can be used by you and me: connecting us in a way that supercharges our ability to meet the interconnected challenges of our age. Pratt tells the stories of decision intelligence pioneers worldwide, along with examples of their work in areas that include government budgeting, space exploration, emerging democracy conflict resolution, banking, leadership, and much more. Link delivers practical examples of how DI connects people to computers and to each other to help us solve complex interconnected problems. Link explores a variety of scenarios that show readers how to design solutions that change the way problems are considered, data is analyzed, and technologies work together with people. Technology and academics has accelerated beyond our ability to understand or effectively control them. Link brings technology down to earth and connects it to our more natural ways of thinking. It offers a roadmap to the future, empowering us all to make practical steps and take the best actions to solve the hardest problems. Front Cover LINK: How Decision Intelligence Connects Data, Actions, and Outcomes for a Better World Dedication Contents Foreword Introduction Chapter 1 Getting Serious about Decisions Shifts in Perspective The DI Solutions Renaissance Separating “Under the Hood” from “the Driver’s Seat” Allows Sophisticated Disciplines to be Unified The Solutions Renaissance in Context How Did We Get Here: The Technology Hype Feedback Loop The Core Question Link Is about Decision Intelligence: A Focusing Lens on Complexity The Link: Core to Decisions Understanding Cause-and-effect Links From Single- to Multi-link Thinking Solving the Tragedy of the Commons Evidence-based Decision making: What’s Broken Who Is Using Decision Intelligence? Decision Intelligence in Practice: A Technology Transformation Example Making the Invisible Visible The Intelligence of the Visual Spatial The CDD Is the Right Scaffold The DI Consensus Why “Decision Intelligence?” About Me About Link BOOK OVERVIEW Notes Chapter 2 Breaking through the Complexity Ceiling The Origins of the CDD How We Invented the CDD CDD Examples CDDs as a Framework for Integrating Other Technologies How DI Extends Machine Learning: A Simple Example The CDD “A ha” Moment A Telecom Customer Care CDD Example Decisions before Data The Complexity Ceiling Breaking through the Complexity Ceiling Dimensions of Complexity How Not to Handle Complexity The Complexity Ceiling Leads to Unintended Consequences Borrowing from engineering: Solutions to Complexity Decision Intelligence Bridges from AI/ML Theory to Practice The Democratization Power of Simplicity The Right Decision in a Changing Context Notes Chapter 3 Technologies, Disciplines, and Other Puzzle Pieces of the Solutions Renaissance The Web of Wicked Problems Big Data Warm Data Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning AI History: Winters and Summers Understanding the Core of AI Beyond Supervised Learning: AI’s Bigger Picture AI in Context Decision Models Are NOT Decision Trees Causal Reasoning Cybernetics Complex Systems/Complexity Theory/Complexity Science Simulation, Optimization, Foresight, and Operations Research From Simulation to Optimization Foresight Operations Research Simulation Organizations Interdependencies and the Whack-a-mole System Dynamics, Systems Analysis, and Systems Thinking System Dynamics Can Trump Data A System Dynamics Fishing Example The Weakest Link Transfer Learning Intelligence Augmentation (IA) Decision Analysis Populating Links: Analytic Hierarchy Process and Sketch Graphs Design and Design Thinking Game Theory Knowledge Management Statistics Conclusion Notes Chapter 4 How to Build Decision Models This Material Is Useful at Multiple Levels Who Benefits from Decision Models? Decision modeling Benefits Some Decision modeling Examples Decision Intelligence and Data Divergent versus convergent Thinking Building a Decision Model Setup Starting the Meeting Determining the Project Rules of Engagement Brainstorming Outcomes Tangibles and Intangible Goals and Outcomes Brainstorming Levers Analyzing Levers Convergent Phase: Analyzing Outcomes and Goals Decision Boundary Proxy Goals Collecting Out-of-context Comments Respectfully Brainstorming Externals Wiring up the Model Breadth before Depth Determining the Role of Machine Learning Using the Model Conclusion Examples of Decision Intelligence Deployments Decision Intelligence at NASA’s Frontier Development Laboratory Utilities and Operators Subscriber Churn Is Part of a Multi-link Decision Innovation Management A Simple Web-based Interactive Decision Model for Training Decisions Decision Intelligence for Market Decisions Cable Company Sustainable Energy Generation Decision Intelligence in Development and Conflict Classic Mistakes/Best Practices Failing to Communicate Outcomes Miscommunications Regarding Delegated Authority Failing to Brainstorm Outcomes Confusing Proxies with Outcomes Confusing Levers with Externals Over-reliance on Data Allowing Perfection to be the Enemy of the “Better” Expecting Consensus Responsibility without Corresponding Authority and Vice Versa Assuming That Decision Modeling Requires a Sophisticated Technical Background Confusing Predictions with Decisions Notes Chapter 5 The Power of the Decision Model Framework DI as a Mechanism for Human/Machine Collaboration/Intelligence Augmentation (IA) DI for Education DI as a Tool to Support Decision making and Organizational Influence Mapping in Organizations/Companies and Governments DI as the Technology that Glues the Tech Stack to the Human Stack DI as the Core of Software that is Based on World Models DI as a Leadership and Management Discipline DI as a Risk Management Framework DI as an Analysis Framework for AI Ethics and Responsibility DI as a Software Engineering Discipline for AI DI as a Context Layer that Extends AI to New Use Cases DI as a Breakthrough Technology to Solve “Wicked” Problems DI as a Way of Better Understanding Personal Decisions: Individually and Within Organizations DI as a Meeting Discipline DI as a Generative Model for Chatbots Supporting Decision making DI as the Basis for a New Form of Dynamic “Wikipedia” DI as a Foundation for Journalism in an Age of Complexity DI as a Business Tracking Discipline DI for Government Planning DI for Intelligence Analysis Chapter 6 Looking to the Future New Ideas, New DI Evangelists The Headwind of Disruption The DI Ecosystem Today and Tomorrow Emerging Data Scientist Specialist Roles DI and the New Mythos The Human Element AI, DI, and the Law Knowledge Gardens Gandhism, Trusteeship, and Combating Wealth Inequality through DI Conclusion Acknowledgments Notes Bibliography Index