Probability and the Weighing of Evidence

Description

"When we wish to decide whether to adopt a particular course of action, our decision clearly depends on the values to us of the possible alternative consequences. A rational decision depends also on our degrees of belief that each of the alternatives will occur. Probability, as it is understood here, is the logic (rather than the psychology) of degrees of belief and of their possible modification in the light of experience."The aim of the present work is to provide a consistent theory of probability that is mathematically simple, logically sound and adequate as a basis for scientific induction, for statistics, and for ordinary reasoning. Probability is treated as a subject in its own right, of comparable importance to the related subjects of philosophy, statistics and mathematics. I hope there is not a disproportionate stress on either the philosophical, statistical or mathematical aspects."