Future NATO Enlargement: Force Requirements and Budget Costs
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Description
Past NATO enlargement helped create a Europe whole, free, and at peace, but future enlargement, should it occur, faces a hostile and militarily revitalized Russia. This report examines the military requirements and resulting budget costs of extending NATO’s Article 5 commitment to countries such as Ukraine, Georgia, or Bosnia-Herzegovina, which are actively seeking NATO membership, and Sweden and Finland, about which there has been analysis and speculation about membership. Costs to the United States range from $11 billion per year to defend Ukraine to half a billion dollars or less to defend Sweden. The project recommends that NATO incorporate force requirements and cost considerations into its future decisionmaking. Future NATO Enlargement About CSIS Acknowledgments Contents Executive Summary 1 | Why This Project? 2 | NATO Membership: Cold War Stability Followed by Post–Cold War Enlargement 3 | Russian Military Capabilities Today 4 | The Current State of NATO Forces and Military Budgets 5 | Defending Recently Joined Members: Learning from History 6 | Defending Potential Future Members: Forces and Budget Costs 7 | Georgia 8 | Ukraine 9 | Bosnia and Herzegovina 10 | Sweden 11 | Finland 12 | NATO Enlargement and Potential Actions About the Authors
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