Emergent Behavior in System of Systems Engineering: Real-World Applications

Description

"This book compiles real-world case studies on discovering, understanding and engineering emergent behaviors in a computational environment across multiple application domains such as wargaming, biology, IoT, disaster management and space architecting. All the application domains are described through an undercurrent of System of Systems (SoS) engineering in conjunction with theoretical foundations required for engineering a Modeling and Simulation SoS capable of displaying valid emergent behavior. An excellent read and state-of-the-art in M&S of emergent behavior in complex systems!" --Dr. Saurabh Mittal, Department Chief Scientist, The MITRE Corporation This book is the of its kind to address real-world applications of the phenomenon of emergent behavior in real-world system of systems. It launches from the foundation of theory and basic understanding of the subject of emergent behavior as found in system of systems applications. It includes real-world examples where emergent behavior is manifested. Each chapter addresses the following major points, which are exploratory in nature: the physical results of the presence of emergent behavior; the implications for the existence of emergent behavior; the manifestation of emergent behavior; and methods to either control emergent behavior assuming its effects are negative in nature, or capitalize on emergent behavior given its effects are positive in nature. Cover Half Title Series Page Title Page Copyright Page Table of Contents Foreword Editors Contributors SECTION I: Introduction and Overview Chapter 1 Introduction and Overview for Emergent Behavior in System of Systems: Real-World Applications 1.1 Introduction and Overview 1.2 Background for the Text 1.3 Organization of the Text References Chapter 2 An Overview of System of Systems and Associated Emergent Behavior 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Systems and System of Systems 2.3 Emergence and System of Systems 2.4 Managing Emergence in System of Systems 2.5 The Role of Modeling and Simulation References Chapter 3 Exposing and Controlling Emergent Behaviors Using Models with Human Reasoning 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Mindset 3.3 Emergent Behavior Analysis Methodology 3.3.1 Emergent Behavior Detection (Step 1) 3.3.1.1 Start with Simple, Small, and General Models 3.3.1.2 Model System Behaviors and Environment Behaviors 3.3.1.3 Model Interactions Separately from Behaviors and Apply Them in the Least Restrictive Way 3.3.1.4 Generate Behavior Scenarios from Behavior and Interaction Rules 3.3.1.5 Automate What You Can; Apply Cognition to Critical Inspection and Analysis 3.3.2 Emergent Behavior Prediction (Step 2) 3.3.3 Emergent Behavior Classification (Step 3) 3.3.4 Emergent Behavior Control (Step 4) 3.4 Monterey Phoenix 3.4.1 MP Event Grammar 3.4.2 Leveraging Lightweight Formal Methods 3.5 Examples 3.5.1 Examples of Detection 3.5.1.1 Bryant’s First Responder Process 3.5.1.2 Revill’s Unmanned Aerial Vehicle 3.5.1.3 Constable’s UAV 3.5.2 Examples of Prediction and Classification 3.5.3 Examples of Control 3.6 Conclusions References SECTION II: Practical Applications Chapter 4 Future War at Sea: The US Navy, Autonomy in War at Sea and Emergent Behaviors 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Emergent Behavior 4.3 Knowledge Behaviors 4.3.1 Ignorance 4.4 Strategy, Operational Art, and Tactics in Hybrid Warfare 4.5 The US Navy and Emerging New Age of Enlightenment 4.6 The Dynamics of Deterrence, Threat, and Combat 4.6.1 The Effect of the “Singularity” 4.6.2 Advancement of Autonomy in Naval Operations 4.6.3 Sea Change 4.6.4 Technology and Innovation 4.6.5 A Sense of Urgency 4.6.6 Culture and Politics of Armed Conflict 4.6.7 Basic Concept of Operations (CONOPS) 4.7 Lightly Manned Autonomous Combat Capability (LMACC) 4.8 General Description of a Simple MP Model 4.9 Summary and Comments References Chapter 5 Applications of Defense-in-Depth and Zero-Trust Cryptographic Products in Emergent Cybersecurity Environments 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Defining Cybersecurity Threats as Emergent Behaviors 5.3 Controlling Negative Emergence of Malicious Cyber Activity 5.4 Ecosystem Solutions 5.5 Modeling Examples of Positive and Negative Emergence in Cybersecurity Environments 5.6 Quantifying and Prioritizing Cybersecurity Responses 5.7 Applying Monterey Phoenix to Qualitative Cybersecurity Logic 5.8 Summary References Chapter 6 The Nature of Emergence in Wargaming: Extracting Operational Insight from a Dynamic Game Field 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Background 6.3 Definition 6.4 Emergence 6.5 Wargame Theory 6.6 Next-Generation Wargaming 6.7 Adjudication 6.8 The Future: An Example of the Application of Emergence 6.9 Where Art and Science Meet 6.10 Conclusions and Way Ahead Bibliography Chapter 7 DEVS-Based Modeling and Simulation to Reveal Emergent Behaviors of IoT Devices 7.1 Introduction 7.2 IoT Devices 7.2.1 Microscopic and Macroscopic Features of an IoT System 7.2.2 IoT Botnets and the Emergent Behavior 7.2.3 Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) Formalism 7.3 Modeling IoT Devices 7.3.1 Modeling Normal Behaviors 7.3.2 Modeling IoT Botnet Behaviors 7.4 Traffic Analysis 7.4.1 Normal Behavior Identification 7.4.2 Abnormal Behavior Identifications 7.5 IoT Modeling Using Monterey Phoenix 7.6 Conclusion References Chapter 8 Analyzing Emergence in Biological Neural Networks Using Graph Signal Processing 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Biological Neural Networks 8.2.1 The Neuron 8.2.2 Neural Networks 8.3 Graph Signal Processing 8.3.1 Introduction to Graph Theory 8.3.2 Introduction to GSP 8.3.3 GSP in Neuroscience 8.4 Emergence in the Short Term: Collective Activity 8.4.1 Case Study: Slow Switching Assemblies 8.4.2 Case Study: Fruit Fly Protocerebral Bridge 8.4.3 Summary 8.5 Emergence in the Long Term: Network Formation and Learning 8.5.1 Case Study: Structured Assembly Formation 8.6 Conclusion Acknowledgments References Chapter 9 Deepwater Horizon: Emergent Behavior in a System of Systems Disaster 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Emergence in System of Systems 9.2.1 The System of Systems (SoS) Concept and Emergence Relationship 9.2.2 Emergence Essentials for SoS 9.3 Emergence Framework for System of Systems 9.3.1 Systems Perspective Foundations for Emergence in Complex Systems 9.3.2 A Systems-Based Framework for Emergence in Complex SoS 9.3.3 A Systems-Based Framework for Emergence 9.4 Deepwater Horizon Disaster 9.5 Emergence in the Deepwater Horizon Disaster 9.6 Conclusions 9.6.1 Emergence Characteristics Can Be Classified by a Robust Classification Schema 9.6.2 Emergence Does Not Exist in Isolation from the System Context within Which It Occurs 9.6.3 Emergence Impact(s) Can Escalate or Diminish as the Situation and Concatenation of Subsequent Events and Responses Unfolds 9.6.4 Emergence Progresses through a ‘Life Cycle’ of Three Phases 9.6.5 Emergence Encompasses a Holistic Range of Enabling and Constraining Factors 9.6.6 Ambiguity Is a Defining Characteristic of Emergence References Chapter 10 Emergent Behavior in Space Architecting and On-orbit Space Operations 10.1 Chapter Introduction 10.2 Dr. Roberta Ewart’s Article 10.2.1 Background 10.2.2 Context for Darwinian Architecting 10.2.3 Existing Disciplines Supporting Architecting Methods 10.2.4 Possible Path to Establish DAO 10.2.5 DAO Pathfinders 10.2.6 Summary 10.2.7 Conclusion 10.3 Emergent Behavior in Space Architecting and Operations: Dr. Rainey’s Comments 10.4 Lessons Learned 10.5 Chapter Summary References SECTION III: Summary Chapter 11 Lessons Learned and the Proposed Way-Ahead 11.1 Lessons Learned 11.1.1 Chapter 2 11.1.2 Chapter 3 11.1.3 Chapter 4 11.1.4 Chapter 5 11.1.5 Chapter 6 11.1.6 Chapter 7 11.1.7 Chapter 8 11.1.8 Chapter 9 11.1.9 Chapter 10 11.2 Proposed Way-Ahead 11.2.1 Guiding Principles 11.2.2 Vision 11.2.3 Mission 11.2.4 Strategy 11.2.5 Background 11.2.6 The Need 11.2.7 What Is Meant by Exploitation? 11.2.8 Legal Entity: 501– 3c (Nonprofit) 11.2.9 Next Steps: Establishing a Board of Governors 11.2.10 Establishing a CSEEP’s Presence References Index