Tools for Decision Making: A Practical Guide for Local Government

Description

This book guides readers to the mastery of a wide array of practical analytic techniques useful to local governments. Written in an easy-to-read style with an emphasis on providing practical assistance to students, local government practitioners, and others interested in local government performance, this updated third edition features analytic methods selected for their relevance to everyday problems encountered in city and county governments. The authors outline a variety of practical techniques including the simplest that the fields of management, public administration, policy analysis, and industrial engineering have to offer. Each analytic technique is introduced in the context of a fictitious case presented over a few pages at the beginning of that technique’s chapter. Contents include demand analysis, work distribution analysis, process flow-charting, inflation adjustments, annualizing capital costs, staffing analysis, identifying full costs of a program or service, present value analysis, life-cycle costing, lease/buy analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, benchmarking analysis, and more. This updated third edition features a dramatic expansion of Excel-based applications, plus templates and exercises accompanying many of the chapters and available online. New chapters prepare readers to: • use statistical tests to identify significant differences in performance averages; • construct Pareto charts; • develop cause-and-effect diagrams; • prepare control charts; • detect possible discrimination in hiring and appointment practices; and • present analytic evidence more effectively. This book is an essential resource for students and instructors of public administration courses on analysis, methods, evaluation, productivity improvement, and service delivery. Online resources for this book, including Excel templates, are available at https://toolsfordecisionmaking.sog.unc.edu Cover Endorsement Half Title Title Page Copyright Page Table of Contents List of Boxes List of Figures List of Tables List of Worksheets Preface Part I Introduction 1 The Role of Analysis in Local Government Analytic Heritage Resistance to Analysis Interaction With Program Officials and Employees Presentation of Findings The Role of Analysis Focus of this Book From the Electronic Toolkit From the Electronic Toolkit References Part II The Basics 2 Central Tendency and Dispersion Central Tendency From the Electronic Toolkit Avoid this Common Error Dispersion From the Electronic Toolkit Building On the Base Suggested for Further Information 3 Performance Measurement and Monitoring Examples of Performance Measurement Efficiency, Quality, Effectiveness, and Service Equity, Too Scenario: Tracking the Performance of Work Crews in Mineola, Missouri Seeking to Make a Good Measurement System Even Better Key Elements of an Advanced Performance Measurement System Back in the Director’s Office References 4 Smoothing Data Trends by Using Moving Averages Scenario: Zornig, Minnesota Moving Averages Postscript From the Electronic Toolkit Suggested for Further Information 5 Sampling for Analysis Randomization From the Electronic Toolkit From the Electronic Toolkit Systematic and Stratified Samples Avoid this Common Error Sample Size and Confidence Level References 6 Basic Statistical Testing: Correlation and Chi-Square Scenario: Satterfield, Alabama Pertinent Statistics From the Electronic Toolkit Getting a More Complete Picture Chief Warren’s Response Avoid this Common Error Chi-square Sharing His Findings References 7 Sensitivity Analysis Scenario: Clay County, Virginia Seeking Additional Advice Sensitivity Analysis Contingency Planning Sensitivity Analysis With Spreadsheets From the Electronic Toolkit Looking for Sensitivity Analysis Opportunities Suggested for Further Information 8 Break-Even Analysis Scenario: Sweet Melody, Tennessee Break-even Analysis Back in Sweet Melody References 9 Detecting Meaningful Differences in Average Performance Scenario: Little Gotham, Connecticut Evidence of Discriminatory Service? Testing the Difference Between Two Groups Interpreting the Result in Little Gotham Suggested for Further Information Part III Analyzing a Unit’s Capacity to Meet the Demand for Service 10 Demand Analysis Scenario: Newbern, Ohio A Case of Understaffing? Demand Analysis Findings Fire Department Customer Service Center Human Resources Department Business License Issuances Utility of Demand Analysis Advanced Demand Analysis Reference 11 Work Distribution Analysis Scenario: Weber, Pennsylvania Overly Restrictive Specifications? Work-distribution Analysis From the Electronic Toolkit Findings Results Utility of Work-Distribution Analysis References 12 Using Performance Standards Scenario: Armadillo, Texas Work Standards for Mechanics Avoid this Common Error Implementation Plan Results Utility of Performance Standards References 13 Staffing Analysis Scenario: Crab Harbor, Maryland Analyzing Staffing Needs The Problem With Employee-To-Population Ratios Avoid this Common Error Measure Service Demand Directly Examine the Evidence of Understaffing Directly Examine the Deployment of Current Resources Examine the Consequences of Presumed Understaffing and Consider Alternative Remedies Scenario: Back in Crab Harbor Summary Advice References 14 Staffing Factor Calculation: Projections for Uninterruptible Services Calculating the Staffing Factor From the Electronic Toolkit Scenario: White Dunes County, South Carolina Applying the Staffing Factor to White Dunes County Using the Information Utility of the Staffing Factor Suggested for Further Information Part IV What Does It Cost? 15 Adjusting for Inflation When Comparing Revenues Or Expenditures Scenario: Keystone, Nevada Inflation Indexes Scenario: Converting Keystone’s Police Patrol Expenditures to Constant Dollars Avoid this Common Error Suggested for Further Information 16 Basic Investment Calculations: Figuring Interest Rates and Yields Scenario: Denia, Ohio Investment Calculations 101 Calculating Yields Based On Simple Interest Calculating Yields Based On Intrayear Compound Interest Calculating the Interest Rate On an Investment Calculating the Yield From a Series of Even, Annual Cash Investments From the Electronic Toolkit From the Electronic Toolkit Back in Denia Avoid this Common Error Suggested for Further Information 17 The Time Value of Money: Opportunity Costs, Discounting, Compounding, Future Value, and Present Value Scenario: South Fork, Texas Discount Factor Present Value Calculations From the Electronic Toolkit Utility of Opportunity Cost Analysis References 18 Simple Options for Annualizing Costs of Capital Items: Usage-Rate and Straight-Line Depreciation Scenario: Horace and Jasper, Iowa Annualizing Capital Expenses From the Electronic Toolkit From the Electronic Toolkit Making Appropriate Adjustments Utility of Techniques for Annualizing the Cost of Capital Items Suggested for Further Information 19 Identifying Full Costs of a Program Scenario: Barrow, Maine Determining Full Costs From the Electronic Toolkit Worksheets Utility of Full-Cost Identification References 20 Calculating Go-Away Costs for Privatization Decisions Scenario: Buckaroo, Wyoming Reanalysis in Buckaroo Suggested for Further Information 21 Life-Cycle Costing When to Apply the Technique of Life-Cycle Costing Preparing a Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Scenario: Lindsey, Virginia From the Electronic Toolkit Variability of Relevant Factors Limitations of Life-Cycle Costing Suggested for Further Information 22 Lease Or Buy? Scenario: Allegheny County, West Virginia Equivalent Annual Worth Making Assumptions Calculating the Equivalent Annual Worth From the Electronic Toolkit Testing the Sensitivity of the Results References 23 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: A Truncated Version of Cost-Benefit Analysis Cost-benefit and Cost-Effectiveness Analyses Scenario: Surf City, Florida Direct Costs and Benefits of Refuse Collection Options Postscript Reference Part V Process Improvement 24 Pareto Charts Scenario: Fiddler, Tennessee Pareto Charts Back in Fiddler References 25 Cause-And-Effect Diagrams Scenario: Fiddler, Tennessee, Redux Cause-and-effect Or Fishbone Diagrams Back in Fiddler What Went Right in this Instance? References 26 Process Flow Charts Scenario: Procedural Problems in Maybree County, North Carolina Process Flow Chart Back in Maybree County: A Streamlined Approach Utility of Process Flow Charts References 27 Control Charts Scenario: Rockwood, Michigan Sorting the Signals From the Noise Constructing a Control Chart A Word of Caution About Other Approaches to Setting the UCL and LCL Back at the City of Rockwood Interpreting the Control Chart Results Interpreting Rockwood’s Charts What Went Right in Rockwood’s Handling of this Case? What Could Have Gone Wrong? Back in Rockwood References Part VI Other Analytic Opportunities and Techniques 28 Citizen Surveys and Customer Surveys Scenario: Idlewild, Delaware Surveys Avoid this Common Error Survey Everyone Or Just Service Users? Asking the Right Questions in the Right Way Accommodating Language Differences Getting Expert Assistance Scenario: Back in Idlewild Suggested for Further Information 29 Analyzing Survey Data: Revealing Graphics and Simple Statistics Scenario: Tillery, Colorado More Revealing Graphics Pertinent Statistics From the Electronic Toolkit From the Electronic Toolkit Back in Tillery Avoid this Common Error Avoid this Common Error References 30 Financial Condition Analysis Scenario: Hutchison, Iowa Options for Financial Condition Analysis Hutchison’s Search for an Assessment Tool The North Carolina Model Back in Hutchison The Value of Measuring Financial Condition References 31 Random Chance Or Bias?: A Practical Use of Binomial Probability Distribution Scenario: Wattlington, Kansas Representation in Appointments and Employment? Binomial Probabilities From the Electronic Toolkit Testing the Evidence of Discrimination Interpreting the Results in Wattlington Suggested for Further Information 32 Forecasting Scenario: Misty Glen, Pennsylvania Forecasting Methods Avoid this Common Error Expert Judgment Deterministic Techniques Trend Analysis From the Electronic Toolkit Econometric Techniques Assessing Forecasting Methods Scenario: Back in Misty Glen Meeting With the Manager and Budget Officer Epilogue References 33 Analysis of Operations Via Benchmarking Scenario: Eliza, California Scatterplots and Regression Lines Postscript References Part VII Presenting Analytic Evidence 34 Presenting Analytic Evidence: Tables Or Graphs? Scenario: Dulles, Texas The Analysts Respond Guidelines for the Presentation of Analytic Evidence The Analysts Present Their Proposal Revised Plan for Presenting Analytic Evidence References Part VIII Wrap Up 35 The Place of Analysis in a Political Environment Disappointment, Yes; Discouragement, No Appendix A Distribution of Chi-Square Appendix B Distribution of T Appendix C Future Value Interest Factors Appendix D Sum of Annuity Factor (SAF) Appendix E The Normal Distribution and Table of Z-Score Probabilities Appendix F Excel’s Data Analysis ToolPak: Installation, Use, and Example Installing Analysis ToolPak Analytic Techniques Available in Analysis ToolPak Analysis ToolPak Example: Using Regression Index