Energy Technology Perspectives 2017: Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations

Description

The global energy system is moving closer to a historic transformation. This year's edition of the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s comprehensive publication on energy technology focuses on the opportunities and challenges of scaling and accelerating the deployment of clean energy technologies. This includes looking at more ambitious scenarios than the IEA has produced before. Improvements in technology continue to modify the outlook for the energy sector, driving changes in business models, energy demand and supply patterns as well as regulatory approaches. Energy security, air quality, climate change and economic competitiveness are increasingly being factored in by decision makers. Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 (ETP 2017) details these trends as well as the technological advances that will shape energy security and environmental sustainability for decades to come. For the first time, ETP 2017 looks at how far clean energy technologies could move the energy sector towards higher climate change ambitions if technological innovations were pushed to their maximum practical limits. The analysis shows that, while policy support would be needed beyond anything seen to date, such a push could result in greenhouse gas emission levels that are consistent with the mid-point of the target temperature range of the global Paris Agreement on climate change. The analysis also indicates that regardless of the pathway chosen for the energy sector transformation, policy action is needed to ensure that multiple economic, security and other benefits to the accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies are realised through a systematic and co-ordinated approach. ETP 2017 also features the annual IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress report, which shows that the current progress in clean energy technology development and deployment remains sub-optimal. It highlights that progress has been substantial where policies have provided clear signals on the value of technology innovation. But many technology areas still suffer from a lack of financial and policy support. Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 Table of contents Foreword Executive summary Key recommendations for policy makers Acknowledgements Part 1: Setting the scene Chapter1: The global outlook Key findings Opportunities for policy action Introduction Energy system transition scenarios Uncertainty in targeting well below 2°C Global modelling results Primary energy demand Final energy demand CO2 emissions Pushing the limits: The B2DS Technologies for energy transformations Early action on energy efficiency Electrification of end-use sectors Decarbonisation of power generation Increased development and use of sustainable bioenergy Accelerated deployment of CCS Clean energy technology investment Achieving climate ambitions: The gap to 2°Cand beyond Policy action to bridge the gap Conclusions: Shaping energy technology transformations References Chapter 2: Tracking clean energyprogress Key findings Opportunities for policy action Tracking progress: How and against what? Tracking clean energy progress and the Paris goals Summary of progress Renewable power Nuclear power Natural gas-fired power Coal-fired power Carbon capture and storage Industry Chemicals and petrochemicals Pulp and paper Transport Electric vehicles International shipping Fuel economy of LDVs Transport biofuels Buildings Building envelopes Lighting, appliances and equipment Renewable heat Energy storage Technology overview notes References Part 2: Catalysing energy technology transformations Chapter3: Accelerating the transition to sustainable buildings Key findings Opportunities for policy action Overview Forging a pathway to sustainable buildings Future impact of current ambitions: buildings sector in the RTS Outlook for an energy‐efficient, low‐carbon buildings sector Energy technology strategies for sustainablebuildings Locking in better buildings for tomorrow Capturing the energy efficiency potential for a B2DS world Transitions to low‐carbon buildings and net‐zero energycommunities Avoid, shift and improve: Strategies for reducing fossil fuel use in buildings Building energy communities and low‐carbonsynergies Buildings sector investment needs Policy actions to support buildings sectordecarbonisation Future R&D strategies Policy implications for a B2DS buildings sector References Chapter 4: Advancing the low-carbon transition in industry Key findings Opportunities for policy action Overview The decarbonisation challenge in industry Future impact of current ambitions: industry sector in the RTS Decarbonisation pathways Strategies to support climate ambition Material efficiency Energy efficiency and BAT deployment Shifting to low‐carbon fuels and feedstocks Innovative processes and CCS Optimising industry for system-level efficiency Industrial energy resources Industry sector energy demand and flexibility Decoupling production and CO2 emissions inenergy‐intensive industry Chemicals and petrochemicals High-value chemicals Ammonia Methanol Iron and steel Cement Aluminium Pulp and paper Investment needs for deep CO2 emissionsreductions in energy-intensive industry Policy actions to support industry sectordecarbonisation Policy implications of B2DS References Chapter 5: Steering transport towards sustainability Key findings Opportunities for policy action Overview The decarbonisation challenge for transport Future impact of current ambitions: Transport sector in the RTS Decarbonising transport Low-carbon opportunities for each transportmode LDVs Technology prospects Focus on electric cars Policy needs 2‐ and 3‐wheelers Activity projections Technology prospects Policy needs Bus and rail Low‐carbon fuel and vehicle technologies Policy needs Trucks Improved logistics Energy-efficient technologies Fuel switching and zero-emission technologies Policy needs Aviation Improving aviation efficiency Shifting aviation activity to HSR Policy needs International shipping Activity reduction Efficiency improvements Fuel switching Policy needs Investment requirements Policy actions to realize comprehensive cuts intransport emissions References Chapter 6: Transforming electricity systems Key findings Opportunities for policy action Overview Recent trends Decarbonisation pathways for the power sector Future impact of current ambitions Pathway for the power sector in the 2DS Challenges for the power sector in moving beyond the 2DS Transition to a carbon-neutral power sector in the B2DS Strategies for generating electricity in the B2DS Investment needs Key technologies for the transition Renewables CCS Biomass co-firing with coal Dedicated biomass firing Biomethane for power generation Biomass gasification Nuclear power Electricity system infrastructure in the B2DS: Supporting the transformation to a low-carbon power sector Storage High-voltage transmission infrastructure An active demand side Early retirements Impacts of delayed action Policy actions for fast-tracking integratedelectricity systems towards zero emissions Recommended policy actions for the near term Policy implications for the B2DS References Chapter 7: Delivering sustainable bioenergy Key findings Opportunities for policy action Overview What is bioenergy Recent trends Bioenergy for heat Bioelectricity Transport Short-term perspective Bioenergy in decarbonisation scenarios Future impact of current ambitions: Bioenergy in the RTS Bioenergy in the clean energy transformation: 2DS and B2DS Technologies and strategies fordecarbonisation Fuel preparation Fuel pretreatment Conversion Biomass for heat Biomass for electricity generation Biogas upgrading Production of transport fuels Other low-carbon fuels Biofuel costs Biorefineries Combining bioenergy with CCS and CCU Short-term opportunities Challenges for the medium and long term Bioenergy technology priorities for deepdecarbonisation Buildings Industry and agriculture Electricity Transport Integrated approach Additional technology challenges for moving beyond the 2DS Delivering sustainable feedstock for bioenergy Progress in understanding and managing bioenergy sustainability issues Availability of sustainable bioenergy feedstocks Mobilising supply chains RD&D priorities International collaboration and initiatives The IEA Bioenergy IRENA Mission Innovation Biofuture Platform FAO GBEP Summary Policy requirements for increased bioenergy Short-term policy requirements Deep decarbonisation policy framework Policy implications for going beyond the 2DS References Chapter 8: Unlocking the potential of carbon capture and storage Key findings Opportunities for policy action Overview The role of CCS in decarbonising the energysector The role of CCS in the power sector CCS is retrofitted extensively in China CCS in industrial processes CCS in fuel production and transformation Challenges for the deployment of carbon capture in the B2DS Building a CCS system Separate models for separate businesses CCS chain integration models The strategic need for CO2 transport and storage infrastructure Infrastructure development Government can drive CCS by building CO2 transport and storageinfrastructure CO2 storage How is CO2 stored underground? Suitable storage formations CO2 storage capacity CO2 storage costs and economics Selecting suitable CO2 storage sites Critical features of suitable storage sites CO2 storage site selection and characterisation Storage performance and assurance Risk assessment and management Measurement, monitoring and verification Modelling CO2‐EOR CO2 utilisation CCU as an alternative to geological storage CO2 utilisation pathways Markets for CO2 Storage availability allows government toregulate and support CO2 capture Policy actions to support CCS deployment Policy implications for the B2DS References Annexes Analytical approach ETP model combines analysis of energysupply and demand ETP-TIMES Supply model Industry sector model Global buildings sector model Modelling of the transport sector in the Mobility Model Overview Data sources Calibration of historical data with energy balances Vehicle platform, components and technology costs Infrastructure and fuel costs Elasticities Changes from ETP 2016 Buildings Industry Transport Framework assumptions Technology approach References Abbreviations and acronyms Definitions, regional andcountry groupings and units List of Figures List of Tables List of Boxes