The Art of Contrary Thinking

Description

Finance and forecasting. Front Cover ......Page 1 Dustwrapper ......Page 2 Half-Title ......Page 3 By the Same Author ......Page 4 Title Page ......Page 5 Printer's imprint ......Page 6 Dedication ......Page 7 Table of Contents ......Page 9 The Art of Contrary Thinking ["C.O."] ......Page 13 Before you begin-- ......Page 21 SECTION 1: It Pays to be Contrary ......Page 25 1-I ......Page 28 1-II ......Page 32 1-III ......Page 37 1-IV ......Page 39 1-V ......Page 43 1-VI ......Page 50 1-VII ......Page 53 1-VIII ......Page 55 1-IX ......Page 58 SECTION 2: Essays on the Theory and Art of C.O. ......Page 61 Waves of Mass Sentiment ......Page 63 The Investors' Dilemma ......Page 65 Habit ......Page 67 The Psychology of Inflation ......Page 69 When there is No Public Opinion ......Page 72 Imitation of the Minority ......Page 74 For Your Notebook ......Page 76 On Being Contrary to the Gregarious Opinion ......Page 78 C.O. is a 'Way of Thinking' ......Page 79 Thinking by Accident ......Page 81 Put the Cart before the Horse ......Page 83 Law of Universal Inequality ......Page 86 Propaganda ......Page 88 Realism: The Contrary Challenge of the New Year ......Page 90 How Economists sometimes make their Predictions go Wrong ......Page 92 Ask 'What's Right?'--Instead of always 'What's Wrong?' ......Page 94 Mass Psychology and the Campaigns ......Page 96 Social Psychology ......Page 98 Economic Psychology ......Page 100 Looking Back ......Page 102 An Historic Return to Gold ......Page 104 Contrary Events from History ......Page 106 Tidal Movements ......Page 108 Much to Learn ......Page 109 On Predicting the Unpredictable ......Page 111 'Crowd Upset' favors Eisenhower ......Page 113 Money Minds ......Page 116 Why Forecasts go Haywire ......Page 119 Revolutions require the Long View ......Page 120 C.O. hinges on Laws of Imitation and Contagion ......Page 122 Where will Mass Conformity lead? ......Page 124 C.O. deals with Delusions and Mass Misconceptions ......Page 126 Looking Two Ways at once ......Page 128 The Ticklish Business of Forecasting ......Page 130 What's the Use of it all? ......Page 132 Maybe some old Theories are still valid ......Page 134 'Neutralism'--in Economic Writing ......Page 135 Be a Nonconformist in your Thinking ......Page 138 More on Socio-Political Trends ......Page 140 Thinking Humanistically as well as Realistically ......Page 142 Thinking in Circles ......Page 144 '...still doesn't know what makes him tick' ......Page 146 Three types of 'Opinions'--thoughtful, thoughtless, emotional ......Page 148 How Opinions are formed ......Page 149 Read-and-Needle is the Contrary Way ......Page 152 C.O. and the 'Triadic Law' ......Page 154 'Social Pressure often breeds Conformity' ......Page 156 Momentum ......Page 158 More on the Contrary Approach to Creative Thinking ......Page 160 Motives and Movements ......Page 161 Mass Mesmerism ......Page 164 ... Again on the Question: 'Is the Public always wrong in the Market?' ......Page 166 The Problem of knowing and measuring Opinions ......Page 168 The Law of Mental Unity of Crowds ......Page 169 Not Forecasting but working toward thought-out Conclusions ......Page 172 'Why do you think you think?' ......Page 174 Our Destiny lies in the Skies ......Page 175 Capitalism's Basic Factor: Earning Power ......Page 177 A Libertarian surely has to be a Contrarian these Days! ......Page 179 The Fallacy in Economic Extrapolation ......Page 180 How to look ahead--profitably ......Page 182 Is there any real Purpose in Contrary Thinking? ......Page 184 Limbering up your Mind ......Page 186 Money-Mind -vs- Impulse to make some Easy Money ......Page 187 Communists Practice the Theory of C.O. ......Page 189 The Right Word (or Thought) may be worth 1,000 Pictures ......Page 191 A Think-It-Out-For-Yourself Kit ......Page 194 Opinions and Words -vs- Facts ......Page 196 The Years Forecasters would like to forget ......Page 198 Quick to conform, but slow to differ ......Page 200 41 Years of 'Unexpected' Events ......Page 202 EPILOGUE ......Page 205 Back Cover ......Page 214