Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing

Description

Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day…or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can―and should―be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. Dedication Contents Preface Acknowledgments About the Author Part I: Estimating Electoral Support 1 Polling 101 2 Polling 399 3 Combining Polls 4 In-Depth Analysis: Brexit 2016 Part II: Testing Election Results 5 Digit Tests 6 Differential Invalidation 7 Considering Geography 8 In-Depth Analysis: Sri Lanka since 1994 Bibliography Index