The Balance of Power Between Russia and NATO in the Arctic and High North

Description

The resurgence of Russian power in the Arctic and High North will be a key consideration for NATO planners. The Alliance’s northern flank represents both a potential vulnerability due to its relative isolation and an area in which NATO enjoys options for horizontal escalation in a conflict. Moreover, as the effects of climate change create opportunities for both navigation and resource extraction, peacetime control over the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and a contest to establish effective administrative control in this area are likely. Disagreements regarding the degree of Russia’s jurisdiction over the NSR could, for example, simmer into a form of sub-threshold competition. The purpose of this Whitehall Paper will be to examine the balance of power between NATO and Russia in this critical region in order to establish the level of ambition that the capabilities being developed by Russia can support. Cover Title Page Copyright Page Table of Contents Acknowledgements About the Authors Introduction Methodology Structure I: The Strategic Context Russian Interests in the Arctic II: The Balance of Capabilities in the Subsurface Domain The Capabilities of Russia and NATO Anti-Submarine Warfare NATO Modelling Interactions Between NATO and Russian Forces in the High North Analysis III: Russian and NATO Surface Capabilities in the High North The Surface Capabilities and Supporting Infrastructure of the Northern Fleet Russia’s Reconnaissance Strike Complex NATO Modelling a Russian A2/AD Campaign in the High North Analysis IV: The Balance of Power in the Air Russian Capabilities and Infrastructure in the High North The Russian IADS in the Arctic NATO Capabilities Analysing the Balance of Power in the Air V: Russian Land and Amphibious Capabilities in the Arctic Russian Ground Forces in the Arctic: Force Structure and Equipment Operational and Strategic Mobility The Capabilities of Russian Ground Assets in the Arctic Conclusions Afterword Appendix 1: Salvo Combat Models for Surface Warfare Appendix 2: Submarine ASW Interactions