Critical Minerals, the Climate Crisis and the Tech Imperium

Description

This book examines the latest manifestations of resource competition. The energy transition and the digitalization of the global economy are both accelerating even as geopolitics driven by Sino-American hyper-competition become increasingly contentious. The volume brings together an interdisciplinary group of scholars, policy makers, institutional stakeholders, and industry experts to analyze not only the transition itself, but also the implications that the need for uninterrupted access to unprecedented levels of raw materials generates. By framing the challenges ahead for global society, governance, industry, international power politics, and the environment, the book asks hard questions about the choices that need to be made to reach net zero by mid-century. Moreover, it sheds light on different facets of the growing risks to what have been global interdependent supply chains in a way that is nuanced, balanced, and practical, thus pushing back on some of the most sensational headlines that breed confusion and may lead policymakers to make more narrow and less effective decisions. The volume is an outcome of “Rich Rocks, the Climate Crisis and the Tech-imperium” a Summer Institute at Caltech and the Huntington that took place in July 2021. Foreword Introduction Contents About the Editor Part l: Geopolitics of Decarbonization and Digitalization Chapter 1: Between Rocks and Hard Places: Geopolitics of Net Zero Futures and the Tech Imperium References Chapter 2: Interdependence vs. Geopolitics: Securitization and Partial Recoupling of Sino-American Relations 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Rethinking Interdependence 2.3 Geopolitics and Securitization of Sino-American Relations 2.4 New Cold War and Complete Decoupling 2.5 Competitive Coexistence and Partial Recoupling 2.6 Conclusion References Chapter 3: Securing Supply Chain Resiliency for Critical Rare Earth Metals 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Market Structure and the Determinants of Rare Earth Supply 3.2.1 Postwar American Policies 3.2.2 The Chinese Approach 3.2.3 Trade and Pricing Policy 3.2.4 The Current Chinese Policy Landscape 3.2.5 The Japanese Approach 3.2.6 A Framework for Resilience 3.3 Risks and Rewards of Diversification 3.3.1 Potential Diversification 3.3.2 Diversification and Risk 3.4 Conclusion References Part II: Critical Minerals and their Supply Chains Chapter 4: Public Policy Toward Critical Materials: A False Dichotomy, a Messy Middle Ground, and Seven Guiding Principles 4.1 Introduction 4.2 A False Dichotomy 4.3 The Messy Middle Ground 4.4 Seven Guiding Principles References Chapter 5: Lessons from Three Decades in the Rare Earth Trenches 5.1 Introduction: Economic First Principles 5.1.1 History: Early Days of Rare Earths Industrialization in the U.S. and Europe 5.1.2 The Advent of Rare Earth Mining in the U.S. 5.1.3 Rare Earth Industrialization in the People’s Republic of China 5.2 The Making of Rare Earth Supply Chains: 1985–2005 5.2.1 Inflection Point: Regulatory Changes in the West 5.2.2 China’s Rare Earth Industrial Policy 5.2.3 The Rise of the Global-Minded Supply Chain Business: Neo’s Corporate Ancestor 5.2.4 The Story of Magnequench 5.2.5 2011–2015: First Attempt of End-to-End Vertical Integration 5.3 2016 To Present: At New Inflection Point of Neo’s Growth 5.3.1 Performance Is in the Neo Name 5.3.2 Value in Magnet-to-Mine: Second Attempt of End-to-End Vertical Integration 5.4 Public Discourse and Cognitive Biases 5.5 Looking to the Future: Capital Formation and Public Policy 5.5.1 Unlocking Value in Upstream & Midstream of Rare Earths 5.5.2 Public Policy for Energy-Saving Rare-Earth Permanent Magnets 5.5.3 Final Thoughts References Chapter 6: The Paradox of Green Growth: Challenges and Opportunities in Decarbonizing the Lithium-Ion Supply Chain 6.1 Introduction 6.2 The Scale of Battery Metals Demand for Green Growth 6.3 Lithium-Ion Battery Economics: There Is No Free Lunch 6.4 Lithium-Ion Battery Geopolitics: A Three-Way Race to Self-Sufficiency 6.5 Lithium-Ion Battery Legislation: Governments Get in the Game 6.6 Lithium-Ion Battery Technology: Panacea or Not? 6.7 Direct Lithium Extraction 6.8 Recycling 6.9 A Note on Substitution 6.10 Conclusion References Chapter 7: Raw Material Demands for the Green Transition: Risks, Opportunities, and Required Actions to Meet the 2030 Climate Targets 7.1 The Challenge 7.2 Sustainable Materials for Future Energy and Mobility 7.2.1 Photovoltaics 7.2.2 Wind Energy 7.2.3 Electric Vehicles 7.3 From Fossil to Bio-Based Resources 7.4 Towards a Hydrogen Economy 7.5 A European Response: Innovation and Investments 7.6 Conclusions References Part III: Mining and Environmental Impacts Chapter 8: Social and Environmental Impacts of Rare Earth Mining, Processing, and Proliferation: Scoping and Preliminary Assessment 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Background: Tracing the Environmental Footprints of the Rare Earth Industry 8.3 Scoping the Costs 8.4 Analysis 8.5 Limitations and a Need for Greater Transparency References Chapter 9: The Social Conundrum of Eco-Centric Activism Against Oceanic Minerals 9.1 Introduction: Divergence and Convergence of Social and Eco-Centric Activism 9.1.1 Comparative Ecological Impact Categories 9.1.2 Mineral Demand and Supply Scenarios 9.1.3 Institutional Context and Errant Comparisons 9.1.4 The Way Forward for Sensible Conversations 9.2 Applying Industrial Ecology as a Lens for Resolving the Conundrum 9.3 Conclusion References Chapter 10: The ESG Triangle: How Lithium Mining in Latin America Could Point the Way Toward Long-Term Environmental and Social Value Strategies 10.1 The Promise or Curse of a New El Dorado? 10.2 The Environmental and Social Costs of White Gold 10.3 Enabling Access and Building Civil Society Capacity: The Escazu Agreement 10.4 The Emerging EU ESG Framework and Long-Term Value Creation 10.4.1 Assessing and Disclosing ESG Risks and Rewards 10.5 Strategic ESG Approaches in the Lithium Triangle 10.6 Conclusion References Index