Reducing the Vulnerability of Armenia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options (World Bank Studies)

Description

Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Armenia is one of the many countries where the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture - directly or indirectly - for their livelihood. Further, changes in climate and their impacts on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. The risks associated with climate change therefore pose an immediate and fundamental problem in the country. Adaptation measures now in use in Armenia, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. As a result, there is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at the farm level, and to develop and prioritise adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. Beginning in 2009, the World Bank embarked on a programme for selected Eastern Europe and Central Asian (ECA) client countries to enhance their ability to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programmes, and investments. This multi-stage effort has included activities to raise awareness of the threat, analyse potential impacts and adaptation responses, and build capacity among client country stakeholders and ECA Bank staff with respect to climate change and the agricultural sector. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Armenia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, is the culmination of efforts by the Armenian institutions and researchers, the World Bank, and a team of international experts to jointly undertake an analytical study to address potential impacts climate change may have on Armenia's agricultural sector, but, more importantly, to develop a list of prioritised measures to adapt to those impacts. Specifically, this study provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Armenia. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modellers, and water resource experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions. Front Cover Contents Foreword Preface Acknowledgments About the Authors Abbreviations Executive Summary Introduction Key Climate Change Challenges for Armenia’s Agricultural Sector Analysis of the Vulnerability of Armenia’s Agricultural Sector to Climate Change Identifying a Menu of Adaptation Options Chapter 1
The Study: Design, Methodology, and Limitations Overview of Approach Methodology Limitations Note Chapter 2
Overview of Agricultural Sector and Climate in Armenia Overview of Armenia’s Agricultural Sector Exposure of Armenia’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change Note Chapter 3
Impacts of Climate Change on Armenia’s Agricultural Sector Impacts on Crops and Livestock Systems in Armenia Impacts on Water Availability for Agriculture Armenia’s Current Adaptive Capacity Note Chapter 4
Assessment of Menu of Adaptation Options and Recommendations Adaptation Assessment Recommendations Notes Appendix A
Mitigation Potential of Agricultural Adaptation Options Glossary Bibliography Boxes Box 1.1 Developing a Range of Future Climate Change Scenarios for Armenia Box 1.2 Description of Modeling Tools Figures Figure ES.1 Climate Change Risks and Recommended Adaptation Measures at the National Level Figure ES.2 Climate Change Risks and Recommended Adaptation Measures for the Lowlands Agricultural Region Figure ES.3 Estimated Effect of Climate Change on Mean Monthly Runoff Average in the 2040s Figure ES.4 Effect of Climate Change on Irrigated Crop Yields Adjusted for Estimated Irrigation Water Deficits in the 2040s Figure 1.2 Steps in Quantitative Modeling of Adaptation Options Figure 1.1 Flow Chart of Phases of the Study Figure 2.1 Areas Planted by Crop in Armenia, 2000–10 Figure 2.2 Effect of Climate Change on Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Patterns for the Intermediate Agricultural Region ( Figure 3.1 Mean Monthly 2040s Irrigation Water Demand over All Armenian Basins Figure 3.2 Annual Runoff for All Armenian Basins, 2011–50 Figure 3.3 Mean Monthly 2040s Runoff for All Armenian Basins Figure 3.4 Mean Unmet 2040s Monthly Irrigation Water Demands over All Armenian Basins Figure 3.6 Grape Fresh Yield in Selected Countries, Average of 2007–09 Figure 3.5 Wheat Yield in Selected Countries, Average of 2007–09 Figure 4.1 Estimated Crop Revenues Per Hectare in the 2040s Before Adaptation Actions Figure 4.2 Illustrative Benefit-Cost Analysis Results for New Irrigation Infrastructure in the Intermediate Agricultural Region Figure 4.3 Illustrative Benefit-Cost Analysis Results for Rehabilitated Irrigation Infrastructure for Crops in the Intermediate Figure 4.4 Illustrative Benefit-Cost Analysis Results for Optimizing the Application of Irrigation Water in the Intermediate Agr Figure 4.5 Illustrative Benefit-Cost Analysis for Optimizing Crop Varieties in the Intermediate Agricultural Region Figure 4.6 Illustrative Results of Benefit-Cost Analysis for Optimized Fertilizer Use in the Intermediate Agricultural Region Figure 4.7 Impact of Optimizing Basin-wide Irrigation Efficiency in the Upper Araks Basin Figure 4.8 Preliminary Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of Water Storage in the Upper Araks Basin Figure 4.9 Illustrative Results of Net present value Analysis for Hail Nets to Protect Selected Crops in the Intermediate Agricu Figure 4.10 National-level Recommended Measures Figure 4.11 Lowland Agricultural Region Recommended Measures Figure 4.13 Mountainous Agricultural Region Recommended Measures Figure 4.12 Intermediate Agricultural Region Recommended Measures Maps Map ES.1 Effect of Climate Change on Average Annual Temperature in the 2040s under the Low, Medium, and High Impact Climate Scen Map ES.2 Effect of Climate Change on Average Annual Precipitation in the 2040s under the Low, Medium, and High Impact Climate Sc Map 1.1 Agricultural Regions of Armenia Map 2.1 River Basins in Armenia Map 2.2 Irrigated Areas in Armenia Map 2.3 Effect of Climate Change on Annual Average Temperature from 2010 to 2050 for Low, Medium, and High Impact Climate Scenar Map 2.4 Effect of Climate Change on Average Annual Precipitation from 2010 to 2050 for the Climate Scenarios Map 3.1 Mean Percentage Change in 2040s Runoff Relative to the Historical Baseline (left: all months, right: the period from May Map 4.1 Locations of the Second Stakeholder Consultations Tables Table ES.1 Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in the 2040s under the Medium Impact Climate Scenario (No Adaptation and No I Table ES.2 Summary of Key Climate Hazards, Impacts, and Adaptation Measures at the Nationaland Agricultural Region Levels Table 2.1 Value of Agricultural Products in Armenia in 2010 Table 2.2 Size of Irrigated Areas in Armenia’s River Basins Table 2.3 Livestock Count by Agricultural Region Table 3.1 Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in the 2040s under the Medium Impact Scenario (No Adaptation and No Irrigation Table 3.2 Range of Yield Changes Relative to the Current Situation (Percent Change to 2040s) Across the Three Climate Scenarios Table 3.3 Change in Irrigation Water Requirements Relative to Current Situation (Percent Change to 2040s) Under the Low, Medium, Table 3.4 Effect of Climate Change on Forecast Annual Irrigation Water Shortfall by Basin and Climate Scenario Table 3.5 Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in 2040s Relative to Current Yields for Irrigated Crops Table 4.1 Adaptation Measures with Highest Net Benefits: Lowland Agricultural Region Table 4.2 Adaptation Measures with Highest Net Benefits: Intermediate Agricultural Region Table 4.3 Adaptation Measures with Highest Net Benefits: Mountainous Agricultural Region Table 4.4 List of Adaptation Options for Consideration Table 4.5 Ranked Recommendations from the Artashat Consultation Table 4.6 Ranked Recommendations from the Yeghegnadzor Consultation Table 4.8 Stakeholder-ranked National-Level Climate Adaptations Table 4.7 Ranked Recommendations from the Martuni Consultation Table 4.9 Ranking of Adaptation Measures by Small Groups Table 4.10 Results of Small Group Multicriteria Weighting Exercise Table 4.11 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Adaptation Options Table A.1 Summary of Adaptation Measures and Potential Mitigation Levels Back Cover