Egyptian Foreign Relations Under al-Sisi: External Alignments Since 2013

Description

Considering both changes and continuities, this book examines how, why, and along which lines Egypt’s external alignments under the al-Sisi regime emerged and developed. Egypt’s foreign relations have changed substantially since the current regime took power in 2013. To assess this, the author develops and applies a unique analytical approach: the model of ‘two-staged alignment formation.’ In the first stage, domestic threats to the Egyptian regime’s survival determined specific needs the regime tried to meet by approaching external partners. In the second stage, characteristics of the global and regional environments defined opportunities and constraints and therefore the regime’s options and logical choices. In sum, the interplay of developments on the domestic, regional, and global levels resulted in a diversification of Egypt’s external alignments, with China and Russia joining the EU and the US as Egypt’s main global partners, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates emerging as the regime’s prime regional partners. Explaining the emerging alignment patterns from 2013 until 2017, this book aids understanding of the complexity of alignment formation and of Egyptian external relations in that critical period of time. This book will be of high interest to researchers and students working on Egyptian foreign relations, on relations between states, and on regional dynamics in the West Asia and North Africa (WANA) region. It is also valuable for practitioners, because it helps to understand an issue of high relevance for foreign policy-making. Cover Half Title Series Information Title Page Copyright Page Table of Contents Acknowledgments Acronyms and Abbreviations 1 Introduction 1.1 Research Question and Research Gap 1.2 Dependent Variable: External Alignments 1.3 Theoretical Approach: The Model of Two-Staged Alignment Formation 1.4 Methodology, Data, Sources 1.5 Overview of the Chapters Note References 2 Egypt’s External Alignments: Selected Developments and Trends 2.1 Overall Impression: Diversification of Alignments 2.2 Egypt’s External Economic Relations: Trade, FDI, Financial Assistance 2.3 Egypt’s External Security Relations: Arms Imports and Military Exercises 2.4 Preliminary Conclusions: Several Changes Amid Some Continuities Notes References 3 Domestic Threats to Regime Survival 3.1 Theoretical Considerations and Guiding Research Questions 3.1.1 Threats to Regime Survival and External Alignments 3.1.2 Regime and Regime Survival: Definition and Operationalization 3.1.3 Guiding Research Questions and Structure of the Chapter 3.2 Regime Actors and Access to Power 3.2.1 Core: The Armed Forces 3.2.2 Main Ally: The Security Apparatus 3.2.3 Alienated Friends: The Business Elite 3.2.4 Supporting Organs: Cabinet, Parliament, Judiciary, Religious Authorities, and Co. 3.2.5 Preliminary Conclusions: Heterogeneous But Bound Together 3.3 Regime–society Relations: Ideological Foundation, Social Contract, Repression 3.3.1 Ideological Foundation: Nationalism, Islam, the Patriarchy 3.3.2 Social Contract: Satisfying Basic Needs in Exchange for Obedience 3.3.3 Repression: Silencing Dissent 3.3.4 Preliminary Conclusions: The Need to Sustain It All 3.4 Threat No. 1: The Muslim Brotherhood 3.5 Threat No. 2: Islamist Terrorism and Insurgency 3.6 Threat No. 3: A Dissatisfied and Frustrated People 3.7 Threat No. 4: Economic Decline and Budget Security 3.8 Threat No. 5: Military Decline and Irrelevance 3.9 Preliminary Conclusions: Main Threats and Resulting Needs Notes References 4 The Global Environment and Alignments With Global Powers 4.1 Theoretical Considerations and Guiding Research Questions 4.1.1 Neorealism: Anarchy, Power, Threats, Polarity 4.1.2 Structural Theory of Imperialism: Hierarchy, Dependencies, Interaction Structure 4.1.3 Guiding Research Questions and Structure of the Chapter 4.2 From Centered to Decentered Globalism: Globalization and the Rise of the Rest 4.3 Global Economic Environment and Economic Power 4.4 Global Security Environment and Military Power 4.4.1 Cross-Border Challenges: Armed Conflicts, Terrorism, Forceful Displacement 4.4.2 Arms Production and Trade: Alterations and Dependencies 4.4.3 Distribution of Military Power: US Dominance Amid Gradual Shifts 4.5 Major Global Powers in the WANA Region: Trends, Interests, Policies 4.5.1 The US: Superpower On the Retreat 4.5.2 The EU: Stabilization Instead of Democratization 4.5.3 Russia: Return With Limits 4.5.4 China: (Re-)Entrance of a Great Power 4.6 Egypt’s Bilateral Relations With the Main Global Powers 4.6.1 US–Egypt Relations: Declining Importance for Both Sides 4.6.2 EU–Egypt Relations: Estrangement and Rapprochement 4.6.3 Russia–Egypt Relations: Mainly Energy and Security 4.6.4 China–Egypt Relations: Trade But Not Much Else (Yet) 4.7 Preliminary Conclusions: Diversification of Dependencies 4.7.1 Decentered Globalism: Increasing Options 4.7.2 Egypt’s Global Alignments: Cooperating With All Major Powers Notes References 5 The Regional Environment and Alignments With Regional Powers 5.1 Theoretical Considerations and Guiding Research Questions 5.1.1 Neorealism and Constructivism: The Complex Interplay of Power Struggles and Identities 5.1.2 Guiding Research Questions and Structure of the Chapter 5.2 The Regional Order: Two Dividing Lines Shaped By Power Struggles and Identities 5.2.1 The Regional Order Before and After 2011 5.2.2 Sectarianism and the Iranian–Saudi Rivalry 5.2.3 Political Islam and the Intra-Sunni Rivalry 5.3 Regional Economic Environment and Economic Power 5.4 Regional Security Environment and Military Power 5.4.1 Post-2011 Turmoil and Terrorism 5.4.2 Armed Conflicts: Internationalized, Complex, Deadly 5.4.3 Distribution of Military Power: Gradual Power Shifts in a Militarized Region 5.5 Major Regional Powers in the WANA Region: Trends, Interests, Policies 5.5.1 The KSA: Leading the Counter-Revolution I 5.5.2 The UAE: Leading the Counter-Revolution II 5.5.3 Qatar: Betting On the Wrong Horse I 5.5.4 Turkey: Betting On the Wrong Horse II 5.5.5 Iran: The Persian-Shia Outsider 5.5.6 Israel: No Ambitions for Regional Leadership 5.6 Egypt’s Bilateral Relations With the Main Regional Powers 5.6.1 KSA–Egypt Relations: Close Partners With Different Priorities 5.6.2 UAE–Egypt Relations: United By a Common Enemy 5.7 Preliminary Conclusions: Two Dividing Lines Shaping Alignments 5.7.1 Identities and Power Struggles: Uniting and Dividing 5.7.2 Regional Alignments: Friends and Foes Notes References 6 Conclusions and Implications 6.1 Summary: The Complexity of Alignment Formation 6.1.1 Stage 1: Domestic Threats to Regime Survival 6.1.2 Stage 2—Part 1: Global Environment and Global Alignments 6.1.3 Stage 2—Part 2: Regional Environment and Regional Alignments 6.2 The Result: Diversification of Alignment Patterns 6.3 Outlook and Implications: The Importance of Context-Sensitivity Index