Safety Analysis of Critical Infrastructure: Impact of Operation Processes and Climate Change
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This book deals with critical infrastructure safety analysis based on reliability modelling of multistate ageing system. It shows how changes of the operation process as well as climate-weather changes in the operating area of the critical infrastructure do influence the safety parameters of its assets. Building upon previous authors’ research, the book formulates an integrated modeling approach where the multistate critical infrastructure safety model is combined with semi-Markov models for its operation process and for the climate-weather change process. This approach is shown to be successful in determining basic critical infrastructure safety, risk and resilience indicators, regardless of the number of assets and the number of their safety states. Besides the theory, the book reports on a successful application to the safety analysis of a real critical infrastructure, such as a port oil terminal. All in all, this book proposes a comprehensive and timely review of cutting-edge mathematical methods for safety identification, prediction and evaluation of critical infrastructures. It demonstrates that these methods can be applied in practice for analyzing safety of critical infrastructure under time-varying operation and climate-weather change processes. Preface Acknowledgements Contents 1 Reliability of Critical Infrastructure 1.1 Two-State Approach to Critical Infrastructure Reliability Analysis 1.2 Application 1.2.1 Exemplary Critical Infrastructure Reliability Parameters 1.2.2 Exemplary Critical Infrastructure Reliability Indicators 1.3 Multistate Approach to Critical Infrastructure Reliability Analysis 1.4 Application 1.4.1 Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Assets 1.4.2 Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Reliability States 1.4.3 Port Oil Piping Transportation System Reliability Parameters 1.4.4 Port Oil Piping Transportation System Reliability Characteristics 1.4.5 Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Reliability Parameters 1.4.6 Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Reliability Indicators References 2 General Approach to Critical Infrastructure Safety Modelling 2.1 Multistate Approach to Critical Infrastructure Safety 2.2 Critical Infrastructure Safety Structures 2.3 General Scheme of Operation and Climate-Weather Influence on Critical Infrastructure Safety Modelling 2.4 Critical Infrastructure Safety and Resilience Indicators References 3 Modelling Safety of Critical Infrastructure Without Outside Impacts 3.1 Safety Indicators of Critical Infrastructure Without Outside Impacts 3.2 Critical Infrastructure Assets Safety Parameters 3.3 Application 3.3.1 Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Assets 3.3.2 Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Safety States 3.3.3 Port Oil Piping Transportation System Safety Parameters 3.4 Port Oil Piping Transportation System Safety Characteristics 3.5 Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Safety Parameters 3.6 Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Safety Indicators References 4 Modelling Safety of Critical Infrastructure Impacted by Operation Process 4.1 Critical Infrastructure Operation Process 4.2 Safety and Resilience Indicators of Critical Infrastructure Impacted by Its Operation Process 4.3 Critical Infrastructure Assets Safety Parameters 4.4 Application 4.4.1 Parameters and Characteristics of Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Operation Process 4.4.2 Safety Parameters of Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Impacted by Its Operation Process 4.4.3 Safety and Resilience Indicators of Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Impacted by Its Operation Process References 5 Modelling Critical Infrastructure Safety Impacted by Climate-Weather Change Process 5.1 Climate-Weather Change Process at Critical Infrastructure Operating Area 5.1.1 States of Climate-Weather Change Process 5.1.2 Semi-Markov Model of Climate-Weather Change Process 5.2 Safety and Resilience Indicators of Critical Infrastructure Impacted by Climate-Weather Change Process 5.3 Critical Infrastructure Assets Safety Parameters 5.4 Application 5.4.1 Description of Climate-Weather Change Processes at Port Oil Terminal Operating Area 5.4.2 Parameters and Characteristics of Climate-Weather Change Process at Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Water Operating Area 5.4.3 Parameters and Characteristics of Climate-Weather Change Process at Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Seaside Operating Area 5.4.4 Parameters and Characteristics of Joint Climate-Weather Change Process at Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Water and Seaside Operating Area 5.4.5 Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Safety Parameters Impacted by Climate-Weather Change Process 5.4.6 Safety and Resilience Indicators of Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Impacted by Climate-Weather Change Process References 6 Modelling Critical Infrastructure Safety Impacted by Operation Process and Climate-Weather Change Process 6.1 Critical Infrastructure Operation Process Related to Climate-Weather Change Process at Its Operating Area 6.1.1 Joint Model of Critical Infrastructure Independent Operation Process and Climate-Weather Change Process 6.1.2 Joint Model of Critical Infrastructure Dependent Operation Process and Climate-Weather Change Process 6.2 Critical Infrastructure Operation Process Related to Climate-Weather Change Prediction 6.2.1 Critical Infrastructure Operation Process Related to Climate-Weather Change Characteristics in Case of Independent Critical Infrastructure Operation Process and Climate-Weather Change Process 6.2.2 Critical Infrastructure Operation Process Related to Climate-Weather Change Characteristics in Case of Dependent Critical Infrastructure Operation Process and Climate-Weather Change Process 6.3 Safety and Resilience Indicators of Critical Infrastructure Impacted by Operation Process Related to Climate-Weather Change 6.4 Critical Infrastructure Assets Safety Parameters 6.5 Application 6.5.1 Parameters and Characteristics of Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Operation Process Related to the Climate-Weather Change 6.5.2 Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Safety Parameters Impacted by Operation Process Related to the Climate-Weather Change 6.5.3 Safety and Resilience Indicators of Port Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure Impacted by Operation Process Related to Climate-Weather Change 6.6 Conclusion References
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