Statistics : concepts and controversies

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Cover Page Title Page Copyright Page BRIEF CONTENTS CONTENTS To the Teacher: Statistics as a Liberal Discipline Applications Index Prelude: Making Sense of Statistics Statistics and You: What Lies ahead in This Book About the Authors PART I Producing Data 1 Where Do Data Come From? Case Study Talking about data: individuals and variables Observational studies Sample surveys Census Experiments Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 1 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 2 Samples, Good and Bad Case Study How to sample badly Simple random samples Can you trust a sample? Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 2 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 3 What Do Samples Tell Us? Case Study From sample to population Sampling variability Margin of error and all that Confidence statements Sampling from large populations Statistical Controversies: Should Election Polls Be Banned? Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 3 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 4 Sample Surveys in the Real World Case Study How sample surveys go wrong Sampling errors Nonsampling errors Wording questions How to live with nonsampling errors Sample design in the real world Statistical Controversies: The Harris Online Poll The challenge of Internet surveys Probability samples Questions to ask before you believe a poll Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 4 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 5 Experiments, Good and Bad Case Study Talking about experiments How to experiment badly Randomized comparative experiments The logic of experimental design Statistical significance How to live with observational studies Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 5 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 6 Experiments in the Real World Case Study Equal treatment for all Double-blind experiments Refusals, nonadherers, and dropouts Can we generalize? Experimental design in the real world Matched pairs and block designs Statistical Controversies: Is It or Isn’t It a Placebo? Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 6 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 7 Data Ethics Case Study First principles Institutional review boards Informed consent Confidentiality Clinical trials Statistical Controversies: Hope for Sale? Behavioral and social science experiments Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 7 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 8 Measuring Case Study Measurement basics Know your variables Measurements, valid and invalid Measurements, accurate and inaccurate Statistical Controversies: SAT Exams in College Admissions Improving reliability, reducing bias Pity the poor psychologist Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 8 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 9 Do the Numbers Make Sense? Case Study What didn’t they tell us? Are the numbers consistent with each other? Are the numbers plausible? Are the numbers too good to be true? Is the arithmetic right? Is there a hidden agenda? Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 9 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources Part I Review Part I Summary Part I Review Exercises Part I Projects Notes and Data Sources PART II Organizing Data 10 Graphs, Good and Bad Case Study Data tables Pie charts and bar graphs Beware the pictogram Change over time: line graphs Watch those scales! Making good graphs Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 10 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 11 Displaying Distributions with Graphs Case Study Histograms Interpreting histograms Stemplots Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 11 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 12 Describing Distributions with Numbers Case Study Median and quartiles The five-number summary and boxplots Statistical Controversies: Income Inequality Mean and standard deviation Choosing numerical descriptions Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 12 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 13 Normal Distributions Case Study Density curves The center and spread of a density curve Normal distributions The 68–95–99.7 rule Standard scores Percentiles of Normal distributions Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 13 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 14 Describing Relationships: Scatterplots and Correlation Case Study Scatterplots Interpreting scatterplots Correlation Understanding correlation Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 14 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 15 Describing Relationships: Regression, Prediction, and Causation Case Study Regression lines Regression equations Understanding prediction Correlation and regression The question of causation Statistical Controversies: Gun Control and Crime Evidence for causation Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 15 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 16 The Consumer Price Index and Government Statistics Case Study Index numbers Fixed market basket price indexes Using the CPI Understanding the CPI Statistical Controversies: Does the CPI Overstate Inflation? The place of government statistics The question of social statistics Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 16 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources Part II Review Part II Summary Part II Review Exercises Part II Projects Notes and Data Sources PART III Chance 17 Thinking about Chance Case Study The idea of probability The ancient history of chance Myths about chance behavior Personal probabilities Probability and risk Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 17 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 18 Probability Models Case Study Probability models Probability rules Probability models for sampling Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 18 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 19 Simulation Case Study Where do probabilities come from? Simulation basics Thinking about independence More elaborate simulations Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 19 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 20 The House Edge: Expected Values Case Study Expected values The law of large numbers Thinking about expected values Statistical Controversies: The State of Legalized Gambling Finding expected values by simulation Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 20 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources Part III Review Part III Summary Part III Review Exercises Part III Projects Notes and Data Sources PART IV Inference 21 What Is a Confidence Interval? Case Study Estimating Estimating with confidence Understanding confidence intervals More on confidence intervals for a population proportion The sampling distribution of a sample mean Confidence intervals for a population mean Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 21 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 22 What Is a Test of Significance? Case Study The reasoning of statistical tests of significance Hypotheses and P-values Statistical significance Calculating P-values Tests for a population mean Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 22 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 23 Use and Abuse of Statistical Inference Case Study Using inference wisely The woes of significance tests The advantages of confidence intervals Significance at the 5% level isn’t magical Statistical Controversies: Should Significance Tests Be Banned? Beware of searching for significance Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 23 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources 24 Two-Way Tables and the Chi-SquareTest Case Study Two-way tables Inference for a two-way table The chi-square test Using the chi-square test Simpson’s paradox Statistics in Summary Link It Case Study Evaluated Chapter 24 Exercises Exploring the Web Notes and Data Sources Part IV Review Part IV Summary Part IV Review Exercises Part IV Projects Notes and Data Sources Resolving the Controversy Solutions to Now It’s Your Turn Exercises Answers to Odd-Numbered Exercises Index Table A Random digits Table B Percentiles of the Normal distributions