The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy

Description

Ultimata feature as a core concept in the coercive diplomacy scholarship. Conventional wisdom holds that pursuing an ultimatum strategy is risky. This book shows that the conventional wisdom is wrong on the basis of a new dataset of 87 ultimata issued from 1920–2020. It provides a historical examination of ultimata in Western strategic, political, and legal thought since antiquity until the present, and offers a four-pronged typology that explains their various purposes and effects: 1) the dictate, 2) the conditional war declaration, 3) the bluff, and 4) the brinkmanship ultimatum. The book yields a better understanding of interstate threat behaviour at a time of surging competition. Background materials can be consulted at www.coercivediplomacy.com. Acknowledgements Contents List of Figures List of Tables Chapter 1: The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy Introduction Key Contributions A Genealogy of Ultimata Track Record of Ultimata on the Basis of a New Dataset A Typology of Ultimata A Word on Method Structure of This Book References Chapter 2: A Genealogy of Ultimata Introduction Ultimata from Antiquity Until the Second World War Ultimata in Antiquity Ultimata in the Middle Ages Ultimata from the Renaissance to the Late Nineteenth Century Ultimata from the First Hague Peace Conference to the Second World War Conclusion References Chapter 3: Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy Introduction Changing Views on the Threat of Force in Interstate Relations The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy: Arguments and Evidence Conclusion References Chapter 4: The Dataset: Data Collection and Coding Procedures Method Definition and Operationalisation of Ultimata Peace Versus War Settings State Versus Non-state Actors The Demand-Threat-Deadline Trinity Strategic Versus Tactical Time Period and Search and Research Strategy Inclusion of Cases and Case Summaries The Coding Scheme Ultimatum, Demand, Threat, Deadline The Coercer and the Target of Coercion Regime Type Material and Military Capabilities International Support for Target of Coercion Involvement League of Nations or United Nations Demonstration and Use of Force Coercer and Target of Coercion Ultimatum Dynamics: Strategies, Responses, and Outcomes In Lieu of a Conclusion References Chapter 5: Ultimata 1920–2020: A Chronological Survey Introduction The First Wave: The 1920s The Second Wave: 1930–1942 The Period 1945–1989 The Third Wave: The 1990s Into the Twenty-First Century: 2000–2020 Conclusion References Chapter 6: Ultimata 1920–2020: Patterns and Findings Introduction Outcomes: Compliance and Objectives Achieved Strategies: Escalate, Punish, Negotiate, End Power Differences Type of Demands Demonstrations of Force Type of Coalitions and Isolation of the Target of Coercion Conclusion References Chapter 7: A Typology of Ultimata Introduction A Typology of Ultimata The Dictate The Conditional War Declaration The Bluff The Brinkmanship Ultimatum Contribution of the Typology References Chapter 8: The Dictate Delineating the Type Dictates in the Dataset Conclusion References Chapter 9: The Conditional War Declaration Delineating the Type Conditional War Declarations in the Dataset Conclusion References Chapter 10: The Bluff Delineating the Type Bluffs in the Dataset Conclusion References Chapter 11: The Brinkmanship Ultimatum Delineating the Type Brinkmanship Ultimata in the Dataset Conclusion References Chapter 12: Findings and Conclusions References Index