The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures: A Big History Perspective (World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures)

Description

This book introduces a 'Big History' perspective to understand the acceleration of social, technological and economic trends towards a near-term singularity, marking a radical turning point in the evolution of our planet. It traces the emergence of accelerating innovation rates through global history and highlights major historical transformations throughout the evolution of life, humans, and civilization. The authors pursue an interdisciplinary approach, also drawing on concepts from physics and evolutionary biology, to offer potential models of the underlying mechanisms driving this acceleration, along with potential clues on how it might progress.  The contributions gathered here are divided into five parts, the first of which studies historical mega-trends in relation to a variety of aspects including technology, population, energy, and information. The second part is dedicated to a variety of models that can help understand the potential mechanisms, and support extrapolation. In turn, the third part explores various potential future scenarios, along with the paths and decisions that are required. The fourth part presents philosophical perspectives on the potential deeper meaning and implications of the trend towards singularity, while the fifth and last part discusses the implications of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). Given its scope, the book will appeal to scholars from various disciplines interested in historical trends, technological change and evolutionary processes.  Foreword Contents Editors and Contributors ch 1 The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective: An Overview Introductory Notes Placing the Current Singularity Trend into Big History Context Book Organization References 2 The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective—A Re-analysis Introduction Kurzweil–Modis Time Series and Mathematical Singularity Panov’s Transformation Modis–Kurzweil Time Series: A Mathematical Analysis Exponential and Hyperbolic Patterns of Global Acceleration: A Comparison Formula of Acceleration of the Global Macroevolutionary Development in the Modis–Kurzweil Time Series Time Series of Panov and Modis–Kurzweil—An External Comparative Analysis Panov Time Series: A Mathematical Analysis Formulas of the Acceleration of Global Macroevolutionary Development in Panov and Modis–Kurzweil Series: A Comparison A Striking Discovery of Heinz Von Foerster On the Formula of Acceleration of the Global Evolutionary Development Toward the Singularity Interpretation. The Place of the Singularity in the Big History and Global Evolution Conclusion Appendices Appendix 1: Relationship Between the Pattern of Acceleration of the Planetary Complexity Growth and the Equation of the World Population Hyperbolic Growth Appendix 2: On Some Patterns on Global Macroevolutionary Acceleration—Additional Calculations References 3 Exploring the Singularity Concept Within Big History Basic Questions What Is the Definition of a Singularity? What Type of Simple Model Has a Singularity Behavior? What Is Driving the Rate of Change and Complexity Increase? What Is the Role of Energy, Information, and Entropy? Is There Substructure in the Trend Leading to the Singularity? Detailed Questions What Are the Potential Indicators of How the Singularity Will Behave? When Might the Singularity Occur? What Models and Metaphors Apply to the Singularity and Associated Transitions? Why Does the Substructure Follow a Mathematical Pattern? Extension Questions What Is the Near-Term Impact of the Singularity Trend? What Might the Far-Future Look like if the Trend Continues? Are There Trends in Worldviews? Did the Far-Past of Cosmological History (Before Earth) Show Similar Trends? What Are the Conditions (e.g., on Other Worlds) that Lead to a Singularity Trend? How Might This Inform Us About Potential Explanations of the Fermi Paradox? Conclusions References Historical Mega-Trends 4 Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change—An Update Review The Facts A Very Simple Argument References 5 Hyperbolic Evolution from Biosphere to Technosphere Introduction Panov’s Pattern Derivation of Formula for the Panov Pattern Comparison with Actual Data Subjectivity Problem The Growth Rate of Sedimentary Rocks’ Thickness On the Possibility of Global Influence of the Biosphere on Sedimentation Logarithmic Growth Rate of Sedimentary Rocks Thickness Dynamics of Marine Species Density Hyperbolic Growth—Like the Population of the Earth Conclusion Appendix References 6 Big History and Singularity as Metaphors, Hypotheses, and Predictions The Main Hypothesis About the Speed of Evolution, Its Pulsations, Accelerations, and Decelerations Does the Choice of Phase Transitions, Their Number and Dates Influence the Representation of Evolution in the Form of a Hyperbola, Tending to the Singularity Point? Is Hyperbolic Relationship Preserved When Choosing a Different Position of the Singularity Point? Possible Reasons for Choosing the Value of the Denominator of the Geometric Intervals Between the Most Important Phase Transitions The Duration of the Geochronological Scale Segments as Indicators of the Rate of Evolution The Correlation of Geological, Biological, and Social Evolution Acceleration of Biological and Social Evolution Without Phase Transition Points References 7 Big History Trends in Information Processes Introduction Definitions of Information, Entropy, and Complexity Information, Entropy, Energy, and Complexity in Evolution Singularity Trend Possible Trends and Limits Conclusion References 8 Plurality: The End of Singularity? Introduction Temporal Patterns in the AI Plurality Broken Intelligence as a New Singularity Scenario The Diverging Trends of AI and Neuroscience The Breach of Brain Simulation Mathematics, Rather Than Brain Imitation Does Deep Learning Progress Artificial General Intelligence? The Slowing Down in Brain Understanding A Formal Account of the Slowing Down The Self-design Skill Conclusions References 9 Energy Flow Trends in Big History Introduction Role of Energy Flow in Big History Recent Trends Current Situation Energy Transition Case: India Possible Future Conclusion References 10 The Deductive Approach to Big History’s Singularity Introduction Time in the Informatics-Cybernetics Model of Humankind’s Self-controlling System Geometric Temporal Trend in the “Fibonacci’s” Model of the Archaeological Epoch Time in the Combined Model of Chronology and Periodization of the Archaeological Epoch Conclusions References Models 11 Near-Term Indications and Models of a Singularity Introduction Topics and Approaches Models Experiences with Historical Rapidly Accelerating Processes Conclusions References 12 Is Singularity a Scientific Concept or the Construct of Metaphysical Historicism? Implications for Big History Introduction Evaluating the Singularity Concept in Big History A Flawed Scientific Method Incorrectly Specified Transformation Functions Setting the Record Straight Reinventing the Wheel or Redesigning Its Shape? Some Personal History Proposing a More Scientific Approach to the Future The Pathway of Life The Logological Constant The Great Waves of Life Biological and Technological Paradigm Shifts Engine of Life The Dynamic-Strategy Theory—A Brief Outline The Driving Force The Dynamic Mechanism Strategic Exhaustion The Future of Technological Transition ‘In My End Is My Beginning’ (T. S. Eliot, East Coker) References Future Implications 13 Threshold 9: Big History as a Roadmap for the Future Introduction Threshold 9: Key Concepts The Great Acceleration The Law of Accelerating Returns Transhumanism—the Defining “Ism” of the Twenty-First Century? Ape Brains in a Transhuman World—Accounting for Human Nature Threshold 9: Teaching Topics References 14 Dynamics of Technological Growth Rate and the Forthcoming Singularity Introduction On Increasing Speed of Historical Process Objectives of This Chapter The Structure of the Chapter Materials and Methods The Development of Historical Process in the Light of the Theory of Production Principles Production Principles and Production Revolutions The Hunter-Gatherer Production Principle The Craft-Agrarian Production Principle The Trade-Industrial Production Principle The Scientific-Cybernetic Production Principle and the Cybernetic Revolution Mathematical Interpretation of Technological Progress (in the Framework of Historical Process) Introduction Mathematical Interpretation of Technological Progress. Methodology and Calculations Calculation of the Singularity with the Incompleteness of the Scientific-Cybernetic Production Principle Calculation of the Singularity Taking into Account Forecasted Phases of the Scientific-Cybernetic Production Principle Global Ageing as a Factor Influencing the Technological Growth Rate Ageing and Technological Progress: A Positive Feedback Global Ageing and Technological Progress in the Last Third of the Twenty-First Century and the Early Twenty-Second Century: A Possible Negative Feedback Conclusion Transition to a Managed Development and the End of the Economic Consumption Model? General Conclusion Acknowledgement References 15 The Twenty-First Century’s “Mysterious Singularity” in the Light of the Big History To Start with: Comments on Methodology Big History: A Cross-Disciplinary Research Project The Singularity Puzzle Is a Cosmic Perspective Possible? Technology, Psychology and Social Viability: The Law of Techno-Humanitarian Balance Peace and War: The Diffusing Criteria Life’s Meaning: The Nucleus of Twenty-First Century Global Problems Recommendations References 16 Global Brain: Foundations of a Distributed Singularity Introduction History Metaphor Foundations Metasystem Challenge Propagation: Towards an Organization Theory References 17 The Cybernetic Revolution and the Future of Technologies Introduction Between Human and Post-human Revolutions Technological Dimension of Historical Processes The Three Production Revolutions The Cybernetic Revolution, Self-regulation, and Artificial Intelligence Future Technologies Future Medical Technologies The Future of Biotechnology Artificial Intelligence, Robots, Nanotechnologies, Additive and Cognitive Technologies Some Ideas on Future ‘Smart’ Technologies Conclusion. Will the Development of the Cybernetic Revolution Proceed in the Direction of Cyborgization? Acknowledgements References 18 Complexity in the Future: Far-from-Equilibrium Systems and Strategic Foresight Problematising the Big History Approach to the Future Strategic Foresight and the Near Future Subtleties of Interpretation Evaluating Feasibility The Chaissonian Metric and Near Future The Contours of the Future References 19 Future Technological Achievements as a Challenge for Post-singularity Human Society Introduction Is a Scientific Forecast Possible? How Far Ahead Can We Predict? The Complexity and Detail of the Forecast What Has Happened to Liberal Democracy? Technical Progress and Changes in the Global Division of Labor Two Ways to Create New Employment Social Structure of the Western Society in the Coming Decades Transitioning Towards a Complete Restructuring of Human Society References 20 Singularity of Evolution and Post-singular Development in the Big History Perspective Scale Invariance and the Singularity of Evolution The SETI Problem and the Evolution of Intelligence in the Galaxy “Exohumanism” of a Post-singular Civilization Cosmic Expansion and Intensive Development Information Crisis Off-Planet Communication of Post-singularity Civilizations The Galactic Cultural Field and the Character of Information in Cosmic Transmissions Final Remarks References Epistemology and Ontology 21 Big History by Mathematics: Information, Energy, and the Singularity Introduction Biological Evolution as a Realization of Geometric Brownian Motion in the Number of Living Species During the Last 3.5 Billion Years Life Forms Increased Like a Lognormal Stochastic Process Expected Statistical Variations Important Special Cases of ML(T) Peak-Locus Theorem Representing Lifetimes with the b-lognormal Probability Distribution The Peak-Locus Theorem Using b-Lognormals Evo-entropy as a Measure of Evolution Definition Linear Evo-Entropy When the Mean Value Is Exponential (a GBM): This Is Just the Molecular Clock Introducing the Evo-SETI Unit Markov–Korotayev Alternative to Exponential: A Cubic Growth Conclusions References 22 The Twenty-First-Century Singularity: The Role of Perspective and Perception Introduction Historical Hyperbolas Hyperbolas and Exponentials Cosmic Evolution and the Weber–Fechner Law Complexity Magnitude Modis and Panov Datasets Alternative Methods of Estimating Parameters Technological Innovations Combinatorial Behaviour References 23 About the Singularity in Biological and Social Evolution Acknowledgement References 24 The Transition to Global Society as a Singularity of Social Evolution Introduction Singularities and Phases of Social Evolution The Adaptive Phase of Social Evolution The Structural Phase of Social Evolution Life Cycle of Societies at the Structural Phase The Macro-evolutionary Diagram Acceleration or Cyclic Recurrence? The Rate of Social Evolution The Nature of the Global Singularity Conclusion References 25 Evolution, the ‘Mechanism’ of Big History, Predicts the Near Singularity Introduction The Role of Evolution in Big History Big History and Consciousness In the Beginning Endosymbiosis Theory Cell–Cell Communication as the Basis for Physiologic Evolution Endosymbiosis, Natural Laws, and Consciousness The Cell as the First Niche Construction, Integrates Humans with the Environment Top-Down, Bottom-Up, Middle-Out Combined Epigenetic Inheritance and Phenotype as Agent Provides Biologic Scope to Big History Anthropic Principle Versus Being of the Cosmos Evolution, the Mechanism of Big History Conclusions Acknowledgement References 26 How Singular Is the Twenty-First-Century Singularity? The Weber–Fechner Law Archimedes Singularity How Singular Is the Twenty-First-Century Singularity? Acknowledgement Appendix References Conclusion 27 Conclusion Preliminary Remarks Discussions on Definition Discussion on Evidence/Data Discussion on Models Discussion on Sequences Discussion on Implications On the Scenarios of Post-singular Megaevolution Discussion on Ontology/Epistemology Where Do We Go from Here? The Current Critical Transition in Big History with SETI Implications References