World Energy Outlook 2019

Description

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2019......Page 1 Foreword......Page 4 Acknowledgements......Page 6 Table of contents......Page 15 Executive Summary......Page 24 Introduction......Page 30 Part A: Global Energy Trends......Page 34 Outline......Page 35 Chapter 1: Overview and key findings......Page 36 Introduction......Page 38 1.1 Overview......Page 39 1.2 Primary energy demand by region......Page 41 1.3 Final energy consumption and efficiency......Page 43 1.4 Power generation and energy supply......Page 45 1.5 Emissions......Page 47 1.6 Trade......Page 49 1.7 Investment......Page 51 1.8 Differences between the WEO-2019 and the WEO-2018......Page 53 Moving fast: solar PV and electric mobility......Page 55 Moving slow: emissions, coal demand, improvements in efficiency......Page 59 To watch: a new round of pledges......Page 62 Moving fast: shale, LNG, offshore wind......Page 64 Moving slow: integrated thinking; reform in producer economies......Page 68 To watch: oil security; Africa......Page 69 Moving fast: battery storage; pathways to electricity access......Page 71 Moving slow: pricing reform; access to affordable capital......Page 73 To watch: decarbonised gases......Page 76 Conclusions......Page 77 Chapter 2: Energy and the Sustainable Development Goals......Page 80 Introduction......Page 82 2.1 Scenario overview......Page 83 2.2 Scenario outcomes: Universal energy access......Page 87 2.3 Scenario outcomes: Air pollution......Page 88 2.4 Scenario outcomes: CO2 emissions......Page 89 Total final consumption......Page 90 Power generation......Page 91 Primary energy demand......Page 93 2.6 Investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 94 Status of emissions trajectories......Page 97 Status of energy access and air pollution......Page 98 Recent policy developments......Page 100 2.8 Where do we need to get to?......Page 103 A closer look at the transformation by sector......Page 106 How to finance the Sustainable Development Scenario?......Page 113 Which technology portfolio for the Sustainable Development Scenario?......Page 118 2.9 How much further can we go?......Page 122 Emissions trajectories consistent with 1.5 °C......Page 123 Implications for the energy sector of achieving zero CO2 emissions in 2050......Page 125 End-use sectors......Page 126 Summary and implications......Page 128 Chapter 3: Outlook for oil......Page 130 Introduction......Page 132 3.1 Overview......Page 133 3.2 Oil demand by region......Page 135 3.3 Oil demand by sector......Page 137 3.4 Oil supply by type......Page 139 3.5 Oil supply by region......Page 141 3.6 Oil product demand and refining......Page 144 3.7 Trade......Page 146 3.8 Investment......Page 147 3.9 Passenger cars: are we approaching the peak of the “ICE age”?......Page 148 Rise of electric vehicles......Page 149 Rise of SUVs......Page 151 Outlook for car sales and oil demand......Page 153 3.10 Pushing the boundaries of US tight oil......Page 156 Evolution in tight oil production costs......Page 158 Outlook for US tight oil and implications for other producers......Page 160 Technical and economic uncertainties in US tight oil production......Page 163 Policy uncertainties, social and environmental issues......Page 164 3.11 Can the world afford to relax about security of oil supply?......Page 166 Quality matters: US tight oil is helpful, but not a panacea......Page 169 Producer economies matter for consumers......Page 173 Conclusion......Page 174 Chapter 4: Outlook for natural gas......Page 176 Introduction......Page 178 4.1 Overview......Page 179 4.2 Natural gas demand by region and sector......Page 181 4.3 Natural gas production......Page 184 4.4 Trade and investment......Page 187 Associated gas today......Page 189 Middle East......Page 191 United States......Page 193 Brazil......Page 195 Outlook for associated gas......Page 197 4.6 How does innovation affect the outlook for LNG?......Page 198 Where are liquefaction costs heading?......Page 199 Growth in contractual innovation......Page 203 LNG pricing trends......Page 204 Can new LNG technologies create “unconventional demand”?......Page 206 4.7 Understanding the global potential for coal-to-gas switching......Page 210 Near-term opportunities for natural gas......Page 211 Is coal-to-gas switching a viable long-term route to emissions reductions?......Page 215 Chapter 5: Outlook for coal......Page 220 Introduction......Page 222 5.1 Overview......Page 223 5.2 Coal demand by region and sector......Page 225 5.3 Coal production by region......Page 227 5.4 Trade......Page 229 5.5 Investment......Page 230 Current status......Page 231 Outlook and key uncertainties......Page 234 Focus: industrial coal use in China......Page 235 5.7 Who will invest in coal supply?......Page 237 Changing landscape for coal investment and financing......Page 239 Focus: the main global coal producers......Page 241 Outlook and key uncertainties......Page 244 5.8 Coal mine methane......Page 246 Method for estimating methane emissions from coal supply......Page 248 Methane emissions from coal supply......Page 249 Reducing CMM......Page 251 Chapter 6: Outlook for electricity......Page 254 Introduction......Page 256 6.1 Overview......Page 257 6.2 Electricity demand by region......Page 259 6.3 Electricity demand by sector......Page 262 6.4 Electricity supply by source......Page 265 6.5 Installed capacity by source......Page 267 6.6 Electricity supply by region......Page 269 6.7 Power sector investment......Page 272 6.8 Competitiveness of power generation technologies......Page 274 CO2 emissions......Page 276 Pollutant emissions......Page 278 6.10 Affordability of electricity......Page 279 Sensitivity analysis......Page 280 Role of electricity in household energy spending......Page 282 Overview......Page 284 Where are CO2 emissions from coal-fired power generation locked in?......Page 285 Recent developments around the world......Page 286 What are the options?......Page 288 Implications......Page 291 Power system flexibility requirements will increase......Page 292 A diverse portfolio of flexibility options will be required......Page 293 Focus on battery storage......Page 294 Battery storage in India......Page 296 Cheap Battery case: India......Page 297 Chapter 7: Outlook for energy efficiency and renewables......Page 300 Introduction......Page 302 7.1 Energy efficiency overview......Page 303 World Energy Outlook links......Page 0 7.3 Efficiency by sector and investments......Page 307 7.4 Renewables policies and investments......Page 309 7.5 Material efficiency in heavy industries......Page 311 Demand for key materials......Page 312 Material demand and interlinkages with CO₂ emissions abatement in other sectors......Page 314 Material efficiency potential in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 316 Challenges, costs and enabling policies and actions......Page 319 7.6.1 Hourly electricity supply CO₂ emissions intensity: status and outlook......Page 321 Targeted energy efficiency to deliver the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 323 Demand-side response and consumer awareness: unlocking further reductions......Page 324 Implications for flexibility......Page 328 7.7 Biogas: turning organic matter into renewable energy......Page 329 State of play: main technologies, uses and production today......Page 330 Biogas cost supply curve......Page 332 Outlook for biogas......Page 335 Part B: Special Focus on Africa......Page 338 Introduction......Page 340 Context......Page 341 Structure......Page 343 Understanding the scenarios......Page 344 Chapter 8: Africa today......Page 348 8.1.1 Economic growth and industrialisation......Page 350 8.1.2 Demographics and urbanisation......Page 352 8.1.3 Infrastructure and investment......Page 353 8.2 Access to modern energy......Page 356 8.2.1 Clean cooking......Page 358 8.2.2 Electricity......Page 362 8.2.3 Affordability: energy prices and fossil fuel subsidies......Page 368 Primary energy demand......Page 370 Households......Page 373 Productive uses......Page 375 Electricity demand......Page 376 Electricity supply from centralised grids......Page 377 Electricity trade......Page 380 Power system performance......Page 383 Mini-grid and stand-alone systems......Page 385 8.3.3 Fossil fuel resources and supply......Page 387 Oil......Page 389 Natural gas......Page 390 Coal......Page 391 Imperatives for resource producers......Page 392 Solar......Page 393 Hydropower......Page 394 Bioenergy......Page 395 Water......Page 396 Local air pollution......Page 398 Chapter 9: Urbanisation, industrialisation and clean cooking......Page 400 9.1 Introduction......Page 404 9.2.1 Residential sector......Page 409 9.2.2 Transport sector......Page 413 Is there a role for biofuels for transport?......Page 416 9.2.3 Productive uses......Page 417 Heavy industry......Page 420 Light industry, agriculture and services......Page 422 9.3 Clean cooking: the role of cities and higher incomes......Page 423 9.3.1 Increasing access to clean cooking options......Page 425 9.3.2 Rapid urbanisation requires better use of charcoal......Page 428 9.3.3 Rural areas – how to unleash the potential of biogas?......Page 431 Chapter 10: Access to electricity and reliable power......Page 434 10.1 Introduction......Page 436 10.2 Outlook for electricity access......Page 437 10.3 Outlook for electricity demand......Page 439 10.3.1 Electricity demand growth by sector......Page 441 10.3.2 Electricity demand growth by region......Page 443 10.4 Outlook for electricity supply......Page 447 10.4.1 On-grid supply......Page 449 10.4.2 Role of decentralised systems to reach universal access to electricity......Page 455 10.5 Reliability......Page 456 Power sector regional integration......Page 459 10.6 Affordability......Page 460 10.7 Investment needs for reliable, sustainable and affordable power......Page 462 10.8.1 Investment framework and market structure......Page 464 10.8.2 Private financing is concentrated in IPPs, mostly in South Africa......Page 466 10.9.1 Improve the financial and operational performance of utilities......Page 468 10.9.2 Enhance policy and regulatory frameworks to improve bankability......Page 470 10.9.3 Create supportive enabling environments for rural electricity access......Page 471 10.9.4 Strengthen provision of long-term finance......Page 473 Chapter 11: Natural gas and resource management......Page 476 11.1 Introduction......Page 478 11.2 The role of natural gas in Africa’s energy mix......Page 480 Incumbent producer: the case of Nigeria......Page 482 Resurgent producer: the case of Egypt......Page 484 Emerging producers: Mozambique and Tanzania cases......Page 485 Gas importers: the case of Ghana......Page 488 11.2.2 Outlook for natural gas demand, production and infrastructure developments in Africa......Page 489 11.2.3 Conclusions......Page 491 11.3 Maximising the value of Africa’s resources......Page 492 11.3.1 Outlook for fossil fuel production......Page 494 Ensure transparent and competitive frameworks for investment......Page 497 Invest strategically in associated infrastructure......Page 500 Manage hydrocarbon revenues to finance sustainable economic development......Page 502 11.3.3 Conclusions......Page 505 Implications for the world......Page 508 Africa as a key driver for global energy demand growth......Page 509 Mobilising investment for reliable power supply: challenging but achievable......Page 513 Not a major emitter, but climate change matters greatly for Africa......Page 515 Achieving global sustainable development goals requires the success of Africa......Page 521 How to read the profiles:......Page 525 Notes to profiles:......Page 526 12.1 Sub-Saharan Africa......Page 527 Sub-Saharan Africa policy opportunities......Page 530 12.2 Angola......Page 531 Angola policy opportunities......Page 534 12.3 Côte d’Ivoire......Page 535 Côte d’Ivoire policy opportunities......Page 538 12.4 Democratic Republic of the Congo......Page 539 DR Congo policy opportunities......Page 542 12.5 Ethiopia......Page 543 Ethiopia policy opportunities......Page 546 12.6 Ghana......Page 547 Ghana policy opportunities......Page 550 12.7 Kenya......Page 551 Kenya policy opportunities......Page 554 12.8 Mozambique......Page 555 Mozambique policy opportunities......Page 558 12.9 Nigeria......Page 559 Nigeria policy opportunities......Page 562 12.10 Senegal......Page 563 Senegal policy opportunities......Page 566 12.11 South Africa......Page 567 South Africa policy opportunities......Page 570 12.12 Tanzania......Page 571 Tanzania policy opportunities......Page 574 Part C: WEO insight......Page 576 Chapter 13: Prospects for gas infrastructure......Page 578 13.1 Introduction......Page 580 13.1.1 Role of gas infrastructure today......Page 581 Promise and limits of direct electrification......Page 582 Natural gas in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 584 13.1.3 Need for gas supply to evolve......Page 586 13.2.1 Hydrogen use today......Page 588 13.2.2 Costs and potential to blend hydrogen into gas networks......Page 590 Adapting the transmission grid......Page 591 Adapting the distribution grid......Page 592 Biomass gasification......Page 595 13.3.1 Biomethane use today......Page 596 13.3.2 Blending biomethane into gas networks: costs and potential......Page 597 13.4.1 Stated Policies Scenario......Page 601 13.4.2 Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 602 13.5.1 Reducing CO2 emissions......Page 604 13.5.2 Avoiding methane emissions......Page 606 13.5.3 Energy security......Page 608 13.6 Implications for policy makers and industry......Page 610 Chapter 14: Outlook for offshore wind......Page 614 14.2.1 Current status......Page 616 14.2.2 Market size and key players......Page 618 14.2.3 Offshore wind technology and performance......Page 620 14.2.4 Offshore wind costs for projects commissioned in 2018......Page 625 14.3.1 Global outlook......Page 628 14.3.2 Regional outlook......Page 629 European Union continues to be the leader in offshore wind......Page 630 China moves strongly ahead with offshore wind......Page 632 United States......Page 633 Emerging markets......Page 635 Capital costs......Page 636 Offshore transmission costs......Page 637 Capacity factors......Page 640 Cost of financing......Page 641 Levelised cost of electricity......Page 643 System value of offshore wind......Page 645 Value-adjusted LCOE of offshore wind......Page 647 14.4.1 Global technical potential for offshore wind......Page 649 Potential offshore wind performance......Page 650 Technical potential for offshore wind by region......Page 651 14.4.2 Improved economics for offshore wind......Page 655 14.4.3 Increased demand for renewable hydrogen......Page 656 14.4.4 Public acceptance......Page 657 14.5.2 Environmental concerns......Page 658 14.5.3 Onshore grid development......Page 659 14.6.1 Achieving environmental goals......Page 662 14.6.2 Synergies with oil and gas activities......Page 663 14.6.3 Enhanced energy security and affordability......Page 665 ANNEXES......Page 668 Annex A: Tables for scenario projections......Page 670 Annex B: Design of the scenarios......Page 752 Annex C: Definitions......Page 772 Annex D: References......Page 786