Turkey and the European Union: Key Dynamics and Future Scenarios

Description

Cover Introduction The Future of EU-Turkey Relations: Exploring the Dynamics and Relevant Scenarios 1. A Glimpse into the Future of EU-Turkey Relations 2. Seeking the State of the Art in Research on EU-Turkey Relations: Contributions to the Literature 3. Assessing the Future of EU-Turkey Relations 4. Outline of the Volume Key Dynamics and Future Scenarios Narratives of a Contested Relationship: Unravelling the Debates in the EU and Turkey 1. Introduction 2. A Narrative Approach to the Analysis of EU-Turkey Relations 3. Past and Present Narratives From the EU and Turkey: An Overview. 3.1 EU Narratives 3.1.1 Membership 3.1.2 Special Candidate 3.1.3 Strategic Partner 3.1.4 Distant Neighbour 3.2. Turkish Narratives 3.2.1 Westernisation 3.2.2 Europeanisation 3.2.3 Eurasianisation 3.2.4 Turkey as the Heir 3.2.5 Turkey as a Great Power 4. Progressively Divergent and Increasingly Conflictual: Dynamics Between European and Turkish Narratives 5. Conclusion: A Mix of Conflict and Mutual Dependence Contested Identities: Historicising and Deconstructing Representations in EU-Turkey Relations 1. Introduction 2. Historical Drivers 2.1 Focal Issues and Scenarios 2.2 Patterns and Shifts 3. Contemporary Drivers 4. Linking Historical and Contemporary Drivers with Levels of Analysis: Implications for Future Scenarios 5. Conclusion Politics are Taking EU-Turkey Relations Hostage: Explaining the Ups and Downs in the Political Dimension of the Relationship 1. Introduction 2. Political Drivers of EU-Turkey Relations: It Takes Two to Tango 2.1 Tracing Turkey’s Move Away From the EU 2.1.1 The AKP Government’s Political Calculations Shifting from the EU and the ‘Erdoğan-Factor’ 2.1.2 Political Reforms (or the Lack Thereof) 2.1.3 Fragility of the Rule of Law in Turkey 2.1.4 The EU as Part of Turkish Foreign Policy Strategies 2.1.5 Turkish Public Opinion On the EU 2.2 The European Union Not Showing Its Hand 2.2.1 Enlargement (Or Turkey) Fatigue 2.2.2 The Undermined Principle of EU Conditionality 2.2.3 Crises Damaging European Integration 2.2.4 Differentiated Integration Diversifying EU-Turkey Relations 2.2.5 Public Opinion as a Driver of Conflict 2.2.6 The Politicisation of Turkey in European Debates 2.3 The Neighbourhood and the Global Level Balanced Between Cooperation and Conflict 2.3.1 A Defiant Russia 2.3.2 The Southern Neighbourhood 2.3.3 The Global Shift of Power and the Contested Liberal International Order 3. Present State of EU-Turkey Relations: Backsliding and Beyond 4. Conclusion EU-Turkey Security Relations: Key Drivers and Future Scenarios Introduction 1. Scenes from a Memory: A Chronological Overview on EU-Turkey Security Relations 1.1 1999: A New Hope 1.2 1999-2004: United Against Shifting Global Dynamics 1.3 2004-2009: Beginnings of a Divide 1.4 2009-2014: A Widening Gap 1.5 2014-2019: A Conflictual Partnership 2. The Road Ahead: Projecting the Next Five Years and Beyond 2.1 Potential Scenarios of Convergence 2.2 Potential Scenarios of Conflict 2.3 Potential Scenarios of Cooperation 3. Conclusions: Managing a Conflictual Cooperation Economic Drivers as Anchors of EU-Turkey Relations: Trade, Finance and Knowledge 1. Introduction 2. How Do Flows of Finance, Goods and Services Together With Knowledge Affect EU-Turkey Relations? 2.1 Flows of Goods and Services 2.2 Flows of Finance 2.3 Flows of Knowledge 2.4 The Political Economy Dimension 3. Conclusion: What Future For EU-Turkey Relations? So Near and Yet So Far: Conflictual Cooperation for EU-Turkey Energy Relations 1. Introduction 2. Methodology 3. Discussion of the Drivers 3.1 The EU’s and Turkey’s Energy and Climate Strategies, Interests and Priorities 3.2 The Brussels-Ankara-Moscow Energy Triangle 3.3 Energy and Climate Security Priorities and Challenges in the Changing Global Energy Order 3.4 Energy Interests of the EU and Turkey in the Caspian and the Middle East 3.5 Gas developments in the Eastern Mediterranean: Trigger or Obstacle For EU-Turkey Cooperation? 4. Conclusion: Future Energy and Climate Scenarios EU-Turkey Relations on Migration: Transactional Partnership 1. Introduction 2. Numbers in Transit 3. Security 4. Political Drivers 4.1 Europeanisation of Turkey’s Asylum Policy 4.2 EU-Turkey Readmission Agreement (EURA) 4.3 Highly Skilled Migration 5. The EU-Turkey Statement of March 2016 6. Populism and Neo-Ottomanism 7. Conclusion Conclusions EU-Turkey Relations: Towards a Transactional Future amid Conflictual Cooperation? 1. Taking Stock of the Volume’s Findings 2. Looking Further Ahead: What to Expect from the EU-Turkey Relationship? 2.1 The Evolving Context of EU-Turkey Relations 2.2 Towards a Transactional Future? Acknowledgements Notes on Contributors Series Editors Register