Volatile States in International Politics

Description

An in-depth account of why countries' treacherous foreign policies often have harmless origins, how this predicament shapes international politics, and what to do about it. The increasing unpredictability of state behavior in recent world politics is a surprising development. The uncertainty that results intensifies conflict and stymies trust. In Volatile States in International Politics, Eleonora Mattiacci offers the first account of this issue that investigates which states have been volatile and why. Leveraging statistical techniques and archival data in a probing analysis of rivals and allies since the end of World War II, she rejects attempts at dismissing volatility as reflecting mercurial leaders or intractable issues. Instead, Mattiacci explains that a state acts in a volatile manner when its clashing domestic interests leverage power to achieve their goals on the international arena. In demonstrating states' potential for volatile behaviors, she asks us to reconsider how much we really know about change and instability in international politics. When properly understood, she shows, volatile behavior can become less confusing for observers and potentially less dangerous. This book offers novel, evidence-based tools to cope with volatility in the global arena. Cover Volatile States in International Politics Copyright Dedication Contents Acknowledgments List of Abbreviations 1. Introduction The Puzzle Making Sense of States’ Behaviors Volatility vs. Other Forms of Change in States’ Behaviors Why Volatility Matters Two Ways to (Wrongly) Dismiss Volatility The Argument in Brief The Goals of This Book Research Design Book Outline 2. Theory: When Does Volatility Increase? Step One: Relative Power Step Two: Interest Heterogeneity Step Three: The Interaction Alternative Explanations Conclusions 3. Measuring Volatility Capturing Cooperation and Conflict Capturing Dynamics Isolating Volatility Measuring Volatility: A Two-​Step Procedure Summarizing Volatility The Measure in Practice A Multipronged Approach to Measuring Volatility Conclusions 4. Volatility and Rivals Statistical Analysis Design Measuring Relative Power Superiority Measuring Heterogeneous Domestic Interests Alternative Explanations Results and Discussion Conclusions 5. Volatility and Allies France in 1954 France’s Relative Power France’s Domestic Interests Theoretical Predictions Retracing Volatile French Behavior Interests and Power Produce Volatility Alternative Explanations France Exits NATO: 1966 Conclusions 6. Conclusions A New Perspective What Can Volatility Tell Us? Broader Implications for Research Taking Volatility Seriously Moving Forward Appendix A Note on Scaling Measuring the Dependent Variable Using the Box-​Jenkins Procedure Summarizing Volatility Monthly Data Notes Bibliography Index