The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal

Description

mentioned on [W. M. Briggs's blog post](https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/45142/)I think this is the book I skimmed through at a Half Price used books store, circa 2009; the cover seems familiar, too. I remember being impressed by its treatment of pre-Galilean-era probability theory in the sciences.* * *How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In *The Science of Conjecture* , [James Franklin](https://web.maths.unsw.edu.au/~jim/) examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates. *The Science of Conjecture* provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk.