Warning About War: Conflict, Persuasion And Foreign Policy

Description

What does it take for warnings about violent conflict and war to be listened to, believed and acted upon? Why are warnings from some sources noticed and largely accepted, while others are ignored or disbelieved? These questions are central to considering the feasibility of preventing harm to the economic and security interests of states. Challenging conventional accounts that tend to blame decision-makers' lack of receptivity and political will, the authors offer a new theoretical framework explaining how distinct 'paths of persuasion' are shaped by a select number of factors, including conflict characteristics, political contexts, and source-recipient relations. This is the first study to systematically integrate persuasion attempts by analysts, diplomats and senior officials with those by journalists and NGO staff. Its ambitious comparative design encompasses three states (the US, UK, and Germany) and international organisations (the UN, EU, and OSCE) and looks in depth at four conflict cases: Rwanda (1994), Darfur (2003), Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014). Cover......Page 1 Warning about War......Page 2 Warning about War - Title page......Page 4 Copyright page......Page 5 Contents......Page 6 Figures......Page 7 Tables......Page 8 Acknowledgements......Page 9 Chapter 1 - Conflict Warnings as Persuasion Attempts......Page 12 Chapter 2 - A Theory of Conflict Warning as Persuasion in Foreign Policy......Page 31 Chapter 3 - Inside-Up Warnings within States and International Organisations......Page 63 Chapter 4 - Outside-In Warnings......Page 101 Chapter 5 - Outside-In Warnings......Page 136 Chapter 6 - (Mis-)identifying Warnings and the Problem of Hindsight Bias......Page 173 Chapter 7 - What Makes Individual Officials Persuasive Warners?......Page 197 Chapter 8 - Explaining Differences in Persuasiveness......Page 226 Chapter 9 - Warning within EU Institutions and the Ukrainian-Russian Conflict of 2013–2014......Page 249 Chapter 10 - When Are Warnings Heeded and What Can Warners Do?......Page 276 References......Page 295 Index......Page 316