Potential Yields of Major Crops for Chinese and Global Food Security Under Climate Change

Description

This book analyzes potential yields of six major food crops - rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide using both qualitative and quantitative approaches to study both China’s and global food security under climate change.  Firstly, it reviews previous studies on potential yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide to provide a detailed information of studying on China’s and global food security based on the product’s supply and demand of these crops.  Secondly, average and top (national) yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed since 1961 on global scale are employed to analyze their temporal and spatial variation trends and potential limits.  Thirdly, the effects of global warming in climate change on both average and top yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed since 1961 at global level are analyzed using regression model, and their differences between average and top yields among these crops are identified and compared.  Fourthly, the yields and per capita quantity of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed in major producer-countries and the world are analyzed to assess the situation and trend of international trade for the products of these crops, respectively. Fifthly, potential yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide by 2030 are projected using both trend-regressed models and ARIMA models to estimate the per capita quantity of these crops based on the projection of world population and assess the status of Chinese and global food security in that future.  Finally, it provides policy implications and advice on food security for China and the world directing food production by 2030 under climate change. Acknowledgements Contents 1 Introduction 1.1 Background of Study 1.2 Literature Review 1.2.1 Potential Yields of Six Major Food Crops in the World 1.2.2 Chinese and Global Food Security 1.2.3 Summary of Literature Review 1.3 Structural Logic of Book References 2 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of Six Major Food Crops in the World 2.1 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rice 2.1.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rice 2.1.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World Rice 2.2 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World Wheat 2.2.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National) Yields of World Wheat 2.2.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World Wheat 2.3 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World Maize 2.3.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National) Yields of World Maize 2.3.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World Maize 2.4 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World Potato 2.4.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National) Yields of World Potato 2.4.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World Potato 2.5 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World Soybean 2.5.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National) Yields of World Soybean 2.5.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World Soybean 2.6 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rapeseed 2.6.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rapeseed 2.6.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World Rapeseed 2.7 Summary of this Chapter Reference 3 Potential Limits of Six Major Food Crops' Yields Worldwide 3.1 Potential Limit of World Rice Yield 3.1.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Rice Yield Based on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top 3.1.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Rice Yield Based on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its Average to Top 3.2 Potential Limit of World Wheat Yield 3.2.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Wheat Yield Based on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top 3.2.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Wheat Yield Based on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its Average to Top 3.3 Potential Limit of World Maize Yield 3.3.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Maize Yield Based on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top 3.3.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Maize Yield Based on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its Average to Top 3.4 Potential Limit of World Potato Yield 3.4.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Potato Yield Based on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top 3.4.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Potato Yield Based on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its Average to Top 3.5 Potential Limit of World Soybean Yield 3.5.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Soybean Yield Based on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top 3.5.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Soybean Yield Based on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its Average to Top 3.6 Potential Limit of World Rapeseed Yield 3.6.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Rapeseed Yield Based on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top 3.6.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Rapeseed Yield Based on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its Average to Top 3.7 Summary of this Chapter Reference 4 Effects of Climate Change on the Yields of Six Major Food Crops in the World 4.1 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Rice 4.1.1 Effect from Global Warming on Average Yield of World Rice 4.1.2 Effect from Global Warming on Top Yield of World Rice 4.2 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Wheat 4.2.1 Effect from Global Warming on Average Yield of World Wheat 4.2.2 Effect from Global Warming on Top Yield of World Wheat 4.3 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Maize 4.3.1 Effect of Global Warming on Average Yield of World Maize 4.3.2 Effect of Global Warming on Top Yield of World Maize 4.4 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Potato 4.4.1 Effect of Global Warming on Average Yield of World Potato 4.4.2 Effect of Global Warming on Top Yield of World Potato 4.5 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Soybean 4.5.1 Effect of Global Warming on Average Yield of World Soybean 4.5.2 Effect of Global Warming on Top Yield of World Soybean 4.6 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Rapeseed 4.6.1 Effect of Global Warming on Average Yield of World Rapeseed 4.6.2 Effect of Global Warming on Top Yield of World Rapeseed 4.7 Summary of this Chapter References 5 Product’s Supply and Demand of Six Major Food Crops in Major Producer-Countries and the World 5.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Rice in Major Producer-Countries and the World 5.1.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Rice in Major Producer-Countries 5.1.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Rice 5.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of Wheat in Major Producer-Countries and the World 5.2.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Wheat in Major Producer-Countries 5.2.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Wheat 5.3 Product’s Supply and Demand of Maize in Major Producer-Countries and the World 5.3.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Maize in Major Producer-Countries 5.3.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Maize 5.4 Product’s Supply and Demand of Potato in Major Producer-Countries and the World 5.4.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Potato in Major Producer-Countries 5.4.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Potato 5.5 Product’s Supply and Demand of Soybean in Major Producer-Countries and the World 5.5.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Soybean in Major Producer-Countries 5.5.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Soybean 5.6 Product’s Supply and Demand of Rapeseed in Major Producer-Countries and the World 5.6.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Rapeseed in Major Producer-Countries 5.6.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Rapeseed 5.7 Harvested Areas of Six Major Food Crops in the World 5.8 Summary of this Chapter Reference 6 Projecting Average and Top Yields of Six Major Food Crops Worldwide by 2030 6.1 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rice by 2030 6.1.1 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rice by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 6.1.2 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rice by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 6.1.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model with that of Trend-Regressed Model for Average and Top Yields of World Rice in the Future 6.2 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Wheat by 2030 6.2.1 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Wheat by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 6.2.2 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Wheat by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 6.2.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model with that of Trend-Regressed Model for Average and Top Yields of World Wheat in the Future 6.3 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Maize by 2030 6.3.1 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Maize by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 6.3.2 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Maize by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 6.3.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model with that of Trend-Regressed Model for Average and Top Yields of World Maize in the Future 6.4 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Potato by 2030 6.4.1 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Potato by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 6.4.2 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Potato by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 6.4.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model with that of Trend-Regressed Model for Average and Top Yields of World Potato in the Future 6.5 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Soybean by 2030 6.5.1 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Soybean by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 6.5.2 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Soybean by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 6.5.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model with that of Trend-Regressed Model for Average and Top Yields of World Soybean in the Future 6.6 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rapeseed by 2030 6.6.1 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rapeseed by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 6.6.2 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rapeseed by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 6.6.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model with that of Trend-Regressed Model for Average and Top Yields of World Rapeseed in the Future 6.7 Summary of this Chapter Reference 7 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of Six Major Food Crops Worldwide by 2030 7.1 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Rice by 2030 7.1.1 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Rice by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 7.1.2 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Rice by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 7.1.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Rice with that of Trend-Regressed Model 7.2 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Wheat by 2030 7.2.1 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Wheat by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 7.2.2 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Wheat by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 7.2.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Wheat with that of Trend-Regressed Model 7.3 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Maize by 2030 7.3.1 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Maize by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 7.3.2 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Maize by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 7.3.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Maize with that of Trend-Regressed Model 7.4 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Potato by 2030 7.4.1 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Potato by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 7.4.2 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Potato by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 7.4.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Potato with that of Trend-Regressed Model 7.5 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Soybean by 2030 7.5.1 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Soybean by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 7.5.2 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Soybean by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 7.5.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Soybean with that of Trend-Regressed Model 7.6 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Rapeseed by 2030 7.6.1 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Rapeseed by 2030 Using ARIMA Model 7.6.2 Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Rapeseed by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model 7.6.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model Projecting the Production Quantity and Per Capita Quantity of World Rapeseed with that of Trend-Regressed Model 7.7 Summary of this Chapter 8 Discussion and Conclusions, Policy Implications and Advice on Chinese and Global Food Security, and Future Prospect 8.1 Discussion and Conclusions 8.1.1 Discussion 8.1.2 Conclusions 8.2 Policy Implications and Advice on Chinese and Global Food Security 8.2.1 Policy Implications and Advice on Chinese Food Security 8.2.2 Policy Implications and Advice on Global Food Security 8.3 Future Prospect References