OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018 Issue 1

Description

Table of contents......Page 5 Editorial: Stronger growth, but risks loom large......Page 9 Chapter 1. General assessment of the macroeconomic situation......Page 13 Table 1.1. Global growth is set to remain close to 4% in the next two years......Page 14 Policy support will help to sustain global growth......Page 15 Figure 1.1. Global activity indicators have eased recently from robust levels......Page 16 Figure 1.2. Global GDP growth is set to strengthen further in 2018-19......Page 17 Figure 1.3. Per capita income growth has picked up in the OECD economies......Page 18 Box 1.1. An assessment of the impact of US fiscal policy changes......Page 19 The US fiscal stimulus is set to strengthen short-term GDP growth......Page 20 Figure 1.4. A broad-based upturn in trade growth, but trade intensity remains lower than before the crisis......Page 21 Figure 1.6. Real wage growth is projected to pick up, helped by improving productivity growth......Page 22 Figure 1.7. There are high numbers of involuntary part-time and marginally attached workers in some countries......Page 23 Figure 1.9. Income and employment gains remain uneven in the OECD......Page 24 Figure 1.10. Inflation is projected to approach, or slightly exceed, inflation objective sin the main OECD areas......Page 25 Figure 1.12. Corporate expectations of selling prices have strengthened......Page 26 Figure 1.13. Large changes in inflation rates have frequently been driven by big changes in energy and food prices......Page 27 Figure 1.14. Survey evidence points to stronger investment intentions......Page 28 Figure 1.15. Global investment intensity has picked up......Page 29 Figure 1.16. The rate of return on fixed assets remains high in some countries......Page 30 Figure 1.17. Financial conditions have tightened in many large economies......Page 31 Figure 1.19. Private sector credit liabilities remain high in many large economies......Page 32 Figure 1.20. Banks in advanced economies are stronger......Page 33 Figure 1.21. Some emerging market economies are vulnerable to external shocks......Page 34 Figure 1.22. Risks for Chinese property developers are mounting......Page 35 Policy needs to focus on achieving a durable and inclusive improvement in living standards......Page 36 Figure 1.25. Net purchases of government bonds by the main central banks have declined......Page 37 Figure 1.26. Monetary policy is expected to remain very accommodative in the euro area and Japan......Page 38 Box 1.2. Modifications of, and alternatives to, current inflation targeting frameworks......Page 39 Figure 1.27. The fiscal stance is expected to ease in many OECD countries......Page 42 Figure 1.28. Fiscal buffers are projected to remain limited in a number of OECD countries......Page 43 Figure 1.29. The slow pace of structural reform is a risk to medium-term inclusive growth......Page 44 Progress in enacting reforms to improve education and skill acquisition has been modest......Page 45 Bibliography......Page 46 Annex A.1. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections......Page 48 Chapter 2. Policy challenges from closer international trade and financial integration: dealing with economic shocks and spillovers......Page 51 Introduction and summary......Page 52 Figure 2.1. The role of emerging market economies in the global economy has been rising......Page 53 Figure 2.2. Trade intensity and ownership of foreign assets have increased......Page 54 Figure 2.3. World trade connections have been transformed......Page 55 Figure 2.4. Trade in value-added linkages......Page 56 Applied and bound tariff rates......Page 57 Figure 2.5. International financial assets and liabilities have expanded rapidly and their composition has changed......Page 59 Figure 2.6. Equity price gains largely explain rising external portfolio equity assets......Page 60 Figure 2.7. International banking integration has reversed, especially in Europe......Page 61 Figure 2.9. The importance of foreign direct investment has increased in the largest economies......Page 63 Figure 2.10. Global integration has been strengthened by rising flows of people and data......Page 64 Economic implications of greater global interconnectedness......Page 65 Figure 2.11. The role of global factors in driving macroeconomic variables has changed......Page 66 Figure 2.12. Non-resident ownership of domestic financial assets has been increasing in the main advanced economies......Page 67 Figure 2.13. Trade patterns and spillovers from a negative domestic demand shock in China......Page 70 Figure 2.14. Multipliers and spillovers from a collective public investment stimulus in the G7 economies......Page 73 Figure 2.15. Spillovers from a rise in the US equity risk premium......Page 74 Figure 2.16. Manufacturing supply chains have become complex......Page 76 Figure 2.17. The response in trade volumes to relative prices has declined......Page 77 Invoicing of exports and imports in US dollars and euros in 2016......Page 78 The US dollar dominates international finance¹......Page 79 Figure 2.18. Primary investment income flows are sizeable in advanced economies......Page 80 Policy implications of greater and changing interconnectedness......Page 81 Figure 2.20. Cumulative changes in financial policies......Page 83 Corporate income tax revenues in OECD countries......Page 86 Figure 2.21. Central banks in emerging market economies have accumulated large foreign exchange assets......Page 88 Figure 2.22. Trans-Governmental Networks have increased in number over the past three decades......Page 89 Bibliography......Page 90 Chapter 3. Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies......Page 95 Argentina......Page 96 Australia......Page 99 Austria......Page 102 Belgium......Page 105 Brazil......Page 108 Canada......Page 111 Chile......Page 115 China......Page 118 Colombia......Page 122 Costa Rica......Page 125 Czech Republic......Page 128 Denmark......Page 131 Estonia......Page 134 Euro area......Page 137 Finland......Page 141 France......Page 144 Germany......Page 148 Greece......Page 152 Hungary......Page 155 Iceland......Page 158 India......Page 160 Indonesia......Page 164 Ireland......Page 168 Israel......Page 171 Italy......Page 174 Japan......Page 177 Korea......Page 181 Latvia......Page 184 Lithuania......Page 187 Luxembourg......Page 190 Mexico......Page 193 Netherlands......Page 196 New Zealand......Page 199 Norway......Page 202 Poland......Page 205 Portugal......Page 208 Russia......Page 211 Slovak Republic......Page 214 Slovenia......Page 217 South Africa......Page 220 Spain......Page 223 Sweden......Page 226 Switzerland......Page 229 Turkey......Page 232 United Kingdom......Page 235 United States......Page 238 Statistical annex......Page 243 Irrevocable euro conversion rates......Page 245 National accounts reporting systems, base years and latest data updates......Page 246 Annex Tables......Page 249 Annex Table 1. Real GDP......Page 251 Annex Table 2. Nominal GDP......Page 252 Annex Table 3. Real private consumption expenditure......Page 253 Annex Table 4. Real public consumption expenditure......Page 254 Annex Table 5. Real total gross fixed capital formation......Page 255 Annex Table 6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation......Page 256 Annex Table 7. Real gross residential fixed capital formation......Page 257 Annex Table 8. Real total domestic demand......Page 258 Annex Table 9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP......Page 259 Annex Table 10. Quarterly demand and output projections......Page 260 Annex Table 11. Contributions to changes in real GDP in OECD countries......Page 262 Annex Table 12. Output gaps......Page 264 Annex Table 13. GDP deflators......Page 265 Annex Table 14. Private consumption deflators......Page 266 Annex Table 15. Consumer price indices......Page 267 Annex Table 16. Oil and other primary commodity markets......Page 268 Annex Table 17. Compensation per employee......Page 269 Annex Table 18. Labour productivity......Page 270 Annex Table 19. Employment and labour force......Page 271 Annex Table 20. Labour force, employment and unemployment......Page 272 Annex Table 21. Unemployment rates: national definitions......Page 273 Annex Table 22. Harmonised unemployment rates......Page 274 Annex Table 23. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections......Page 275 Annex Table 24. Potential GDP and productive capital stock......Page 276 Annex Table 25. Structural unemployment and unit labour costs......Page 277 Annex Table 26. Household saving rates......Page 278 Annex Table 27. Gross national saving......Page 279 Annex Table 28. Household wealth and indebtedness......Page 280 Annex Table 29. General government total outlays......Page 281 Annex Table 30. General government total tax and non-tax receipts......Page 282 Annex Table 31. General government financial balances......Page 283 Annex Table 32. General government cyclically-adjusted balances......Page 284 Annex Table 33. General government underlying balances......Page 285 Annex Table 34. General government underlying primary balances......Page 286 Annex Table 35. General government net debt interest payments......Page 287 Annex Table 36. General government gross financial liabilities......Page 288 Annex Table 37. General government net financial liabilities......Page 289 Annex Table 38. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt......Page 290 Annex Table 39. Short-term interest rates......Page 291 Annex Table 40. Long-term interest rates......Page 292 Annex Table 41. Nominal exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar)......Page 293 Annex Table 42. Effective exchange rates......Page 294 Annex Table 43. Nominal house prices......Page 295 Annex Table 44. Real house prices......Page 296 Annex Table 45. House price-to-rent ratio......Page 297 Annex Table 46. House price-to-income ratio......Page 298 Annex Table 47. Export volumes of goods and services......Page 299 Annex Table 48. Import volumes of goods and services......Page 300 Annex Table 49. Export prices of goods and services......Page 301 Annex Table 50. Import prices of goods and services......Page 302 Annex Table 51. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative consumer prices......Page 303 Annex Table 52. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative unit labour costs......Page 304 Annex Table 53. Export market growth in goods and services......Page 305 Annex Table 54. Export performance for total goods and services......Page 306 Annex Table 55. Import penetration......Page 307 Annex Table 56. Shares in world exports and imports......Page 308 Annex Table 57. Geographical structure of world trade growth......Page 309 Annex Table 58. Trade balances for goods and services......Page 310 Annex Table 59. Balance of primary income......Page 311 Annex Table 60. Balance of secondary income......Page 312 Annex Table 61. Current account balances......Page 313 Annex Table 62. Current account balances as a percentage of GDP......Page 314 Annex Table 63. Structure of current account balances of major world regions......Page 315