Regions, Power, and Conflict: Constrained Capabilities, Hierarchy, and Rivalry

Description

The three main levels of analysis in international relations have been the systemic, the national, and the individual.  A fourth level that falls between the systemic and the national is the region.  It is woefully underdeveloped in comparison to the attention afforded the other three.  Yet regions tend to be distinctive theaters for international politics.  Otherwise, we would not recognize that Middle Eastern interstate politics somehow does not resemble Latin American interstate politics or interstate politics in Southern Africa (although once the Middle East and Southern Africa may have seemed more similar in their mutual fixation with opposition to domestic policies in Israel and  South Africa, respectively).  This book, divided into three parts, first makes a case for studying regional politics even though it must also be appreciated that regional boundaries are also hazy and not always easy to pin down empirically.  The second part examines power distributions within regions as an important entry point to studying regional similarities and differences.  Two emphases are stressed.  One is that regional power assessments need to be conditioned by controlling for weak states which are more common in some regions than they are in others.  The other emphasis is on regional power hierarchies.  Some regions have strong regional hierarchies while others do not. Regions with strong hierarchies operate much differently from those without them in the sense that the former are more pacific than the latter.  The third part of the book focuses on regional differences in terms of conflict behavior, order preferences, rivalries, and rivalry termination. Contents 1 The Significance of Regional Analyses References 2 The Case for Comparative Regional Analysis in International Politics 2.1 A Brief Look at the Literature 2.1.1 Where to From Here? 2.2 Delineating Regions 2.3 A Theoretical Framework 2.4 A Theoretical Bet 2.4.1 A Short Propositional Inventory 2.4.2 How Competitive is the Power Environment? 2.4.3 How Extensive are the Fault Lines to be Managed? 2.4.4 When are Regional Powers Capable and Willing to Create Regional Order? 2.5 Conclusion Appendix 1: List of Regional Categories Used in Quantitative Studies of Conflict and Cooperation Appendix 2: States, Regions, and Border States, 2001–2010 Appendix 3: Changes in European Regions, Shown by Decades, 1950–1980 References 3 Borders, Rivalry, Democracy, and Conflict in the European Region, 1816–1994 3.1 The Gibler Argument 3.2 Threat, Democracy, and Conflict 3.3 Methodology 3.4 Results 3.5 Conclusion References 4 In Search of Super Asia 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Whither Super Asia? 4.3 British India, Qing China, and Strategic Asia 4.4 Rise of Japan and World War II 4.5 Evaluating Region-ness in the Post-World War II Era 4.6 The Early Cold War 4.7 Regional Fragmentation and the Cold War 4.8 Re-emergence of Super Asia Following the Cold War 4.9 Conclusions: Looking Forward References 5 Is There a Central Asia and Does It Matter? 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Background on Regional Subsystems 5.3 Structural Approaches 5.4 Research Design and State Visits Data 5.4.1 Data Restrictions 5.5 Empirical Findings and Analysis 5.5.1 Highly Interactive Subsystem (Model I) 5.5.2 Fragmented Regional Subsystem (Model II) 5.5.3 Russia-centered Subsystem (Model III) 5.6 Concluding Thoughts References 6 The Strength of Nations: Constrained Indicators and the Salience of Asymmetry in Conflict Relationships 6.1 Introduction 6.2 State Capabilities and State Strength 6.3 Comparing Indicators 6.4 In Search of a Proxy for Government Effectiveness and Control of Corruption 6.5 Do These Modifications Matter? Does Quality of Governance Matter? 6.6 Conclusion Appendix A: Comparison of Unmodified and Two Modified Indicators of State Strength, Saudi-Iranian Dyad Appendix B: Comparison of Unconstrained and Constrained Military Expenditure Variables for Predicting MID initiation, Logit Regressions, Using SIPRI as Military Expenditure Source References 7 Differences in Strength Across Regions 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Measuring Regional Strength 7.2.1 Economic Strength 7.2.2 Military Strength 7.3 Regional Strength Implications 7.3.1 Regional Order Construction 7.3.2 Regional Strength And Regional Penetration 7.3.3 Rising Powers and Regional Strength 7.4 Conclusion References 8 Conflict, Regions, and Regional Hierarchies 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Theoretical Framework 8.3 Research Design Considerations 8.3.1 Delineating Regions and State Regional Membership 8.3.2 Delineating Regional and Major Powers, and Regions with and without Hierarchy 8.3.3 Dependent Variables: MID Frequency and State MID Involvement 8.3.4 Independent and Control Variables 8.4 Empirical Analysis 8.5 Discussion Appendix 1: List of ROW Regions, by Decade and Type of Hierarchy Appendix 2: Patterns of Conflict Across Regions Appendix 3: List of Variables, Sources, and Manipulations Appendix 4: Summary Statistics for Dependent and Independent Variables References 9 Sources of Regional Conflict and Peace in the Empirical International Relations Literature: States, Dyads, and Beyond 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Conflict and Peace Are Spatially Clustered 9.3 Explanations by Aggregating Local States and Dyads 9.4 Conditions Outside Dyads 9.4.1 Diffusion of Conflict 9.4.2 Dyad-to-Dyad Interdependence 9.4.3 Unsettled Borders 9.4.4 Rivalry Dynamics 9.4.5 Mode of Economy and Trade 9.4.6 Local Leadership 9.5 Conclusion References 10 Bad Neighborhoods in World Politics: Ethnic Political Exclusion, Weak States, and Interstate Territorial Disputes 10.1 Societal Heterogeneity/Weak State Approaches 10.2 Previous Findings 10.3 Research Design 10.3.1 Independent Variable Measures 10.3.2 Dependent Variable: A Binary Measure of Boundary Disputes 10.3.3 Control Variable Measures 10.3.4 The Case for a Monadic (Country-Year) Level of Analysis 10.4 Findings 10.5 Conclusion Appendix 1 Appendix 2 References 11 Regions and World Order Preferences 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Assessing Global Status Quo Dissatisfaction 11.3 Patterns of Support and Opposition to the Liberal World Order 11.4 Regional Variation in Support for the LWO 11.4.1 Regions Supporting the LWO 11.4.2 Regions Opposing the LWO 11.4.3 Regions that Changed Their Status Quo Evaluations 11.5 Discussion 11.6 Conclusion Appendix 1: Regions in World Politics Appendix 2: Patterns of Opposition to the LWO by Consistent Opponents of the Global Order References Index