Russian–American Nuclear Nonproliferation Dialogue: Lessons Learned And Road Ahead

Description

This book explores the history of the nuclear nonproliferation dialogue between Russia (USSR) and the United States. By looking into the particulars of bilateral cooperation on NPT, Cooperative Threat Reduction program, arms control, and other issues, the authors offer lessons to be learned in preventing nuclear confrontations in the future. The book has been prepared in coordination between Russian and American scholars and experts and is a result of a series of Track 2.5 events devoted to restoring the nonproliferation cooperation between Russia and the United States. Covering all the aspects of the bilateral partnership since 1960 until today, this book will interest scholars of great power conflicts and nonproliferation. The workshop and the consequent work on the monograph became possible thanks to generous organizational & financial support from Centre russe d`etudes politiques (Geneva) and the Center for Policy Studies in Russia (Monterey, USA). Foreword by William Potter Foreword by Anatoly Torkunov Acknowledgments Contents Notes on Contributors Acronyms 1 Preface: The Road Ahead Will Be Mastered By the Walking 1. 2. 3. 2 Introduction Part I Soviet/Russian–American Cooperation on NPT Negotiations and Extension 3 Negotiations on Articles I and II of NPT: History and Lessons Learned Origins of the Multilateral Nuclear Force Proposal Start of Negotiations on the Non-Proliferation Treaty Drafting of Articles I and II of the Non-Proliferation Treaty Revival of the Nuclear Sharing Issue after the End of the Cold War Conclusions 4 Russian–American Cooperation on NPT Extension: Lessons Learned In the Lead-Up to the 1995 Review and Extension Conference States Parties’ Positions Prior to the NPTREC Preparations for the Review and Extension Conference Views on the NPT’s Extension Before the 1995 Conference Deliberations Negotiation of the ‘Package Deal’ Negotiation of the Resolution on the Middle East Conclusions Part II Russian–American Dialogue on Regional Challenges to Nonproliferation 5 Dialogue on the Iranian Nuclear Program: Lessons Learned and Ignored (1992–2020) Policy Foundations 1992–2000. The U.S. Adjusts Russian Policy Political Background Results Lessons 2001–2010. Russia Balances Out U.S. Policy on Iran Political Background Results Lessons 2011–2016. Russia Facilitates Negotiations Political Background Results Lessons 2017–2020. The U.S. Unravels the Deal Political Background Results Conclusion 6 Exchanges on Establishment of a Zone Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East Introduction Ideas on the Establishment of a Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zone in the Middle East 1995 Review and Extension Conference Incentives and Obstacles to Cooperation Dimensions of U.S.–Russian Cooperation Factors Contributing to Successful Cooperation 2000 NPT Review Conference 2010 NPT Review Conference, Glion and Geneva Incentives and Obstacles to Cooperation Dimensions of U.S.–Russian Cooperation The 2012 Conference and the Informal Multilateral Consultation Process Incentives and Obstacles to Cooperation Dimensions of U.S.–Russian Cooperation Factors Contributing to Successful Cooperation Results of the 2005 and 2015 Review Conferences Study of Russian and U.S. Proposals Preparing for the 10th NPT Review Conference Conclusions Part III Russian–American Dialogue on Arms Control 7 Negotiations of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Article VI of NPT and the Beginning of the Soviet–U.S. Dialogue Interruption of the Dialogue in Early 1980s and Its Resumption The Role of Offense–Defense Relationship in the Dialogue START Negotiations After Reykjavik Summit 1989: New Stage of START Defense and Space Debates in 1989–1991 Negotiations on START in 1989–1991 Political Struggle in Moscow and Washington Around START Internal Diplomacy Conclusions 8 Comparing Approaches Towards Global Zero in the Modern Period 1995–2000: NPT Review Process and Progress on Article VI Obligations 1995 NPT Review Conference 2000 NPT Review Conference 2009–2016: The ‘Prague Speech’ Period Obama and Medvedev Governments Drive the Abolitionist Agenda SORT vs. The New START SORT Treaty New START Resolution of the Most Contentious Point in the Negotiations A Call for Further Cuts Nuclear Arsenal Modernization Programs Russia and the United States in the NPT Review Process in 2010–2015 2010 Review Conference 2015 Review Conference Conclusion 2016–2020: The Trump Administration Changes in Nuclear Disarmament Rhetoric ‘Next-Generation Arms Control’ 2018 and 2019 NPT Preparatory Committees Conclusion Looking Ahead and Lessons Learned Arms Control Process Is Dependent on Both Strategic and Political Factors A Resilient Backchannel Dialogue Between Decision-Makers in Moscow and Washington Nuclear Weapons Perception as a Guarantee of Security Has to Change Moral Norms and Public Pressure May Influence Leadership’s Personal Agenda Political Will Means Flexibility in Negotiation Personal Relationships Between the Negotiators Matter Russia-U.S. Cooperation During the NPT Review Conferences Is an Important Element of Success Cooperation Between the Nuclear Weapons states and the NPT Groupings Is Necessary Diplomatic Engagement Outside of the NPT Is Extremely Beneficial Rhetoric on NPT Article VI Has to be Backed Up by Concrete Actions High-Level Engagement Creates an Environment That Is More Conducive to Results 9 Nuclear Sharing Arrangements: Military-Technical Aspects and Controversies NATO Nuclear Sharing Arrangements: A Primer The Tacit Understanding Did the Soviet Union Have Its Own Nuclear Sharing? From 1967 to 1991: Decline in Numbers of Us Nuclear Warheads and Systems Deployed in Europe After the Cold War: In Search of Raison d’être Reemergence of Russian–U.S. Debate on Nuclear Sharing What Prompted the Reappraisal of the Russian Position? Conclusions Part IV Russian–American Cooperation on Nuclear Security and Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy 10 Cooperative Threat Reduction and Nuclear Security Initiatives in Bilateral Relations Cooperative Threat Reduction Overview G8 Global Partnership Overview Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism Overview Key Lessons of Cooperation Russia’s Interests United States and European Interests Origins of Russia’s Discontent with Cooperation Conclusions 11 Cooperation on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy Finding the Way Out of the Cold War HEU-LEU Agreement Plutonium Management Disposition Agreement (PMDA) Lab-to-Lab Cooperation Recent Attempts to Restore Cooperation Prospects for Future Cooperation Conclusions Part V Russian–American Nonproliferation and Arms Control Dialogue Since 1991: From Patronage to Failed Partnership … What’s Next? 12 Interaction on Nuclear Nonproliferation in 1990s Through a Prism of Archival Documents Removal of Nuclear Weapons from Ukraine Contradictions on Iran Nuclear and Missile Programs The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program Yeltsin-Clinton Dialogue on NPT Extension Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Conclusions 13 Dialogue on Nuclear Issues: Road to Failed Partnership United States in Pursuit of Absolute Security The Law of Force or the Force of Law? Same Game, Different Players—Same Song, Different Chorus Gain an Inch and Ask for a Yard Utilitarian Ethics in Action Conclusions 14 Dialogue on Nuclear Nonproliferation Under Trump Administration Failure and Legacy of 2015 NPT Review Conference The 2017–2022 NPT Review Cycle Nuclear Ban and Humanitarian Initiative CEND: Creating Excuses for No Disarmament? New START Implementation and Extension Debates P5: Any Chances for Successful Engagement? Iran Nuclear Deal IAEA Safeguards Why No Cooperation? Prospects for the Future Lessons Learned 15 Conclusions 1966–1991: Superpower Cooperation 1991–2000: Rise and Fall of U.S. Patronage 2001–2008: Consolidation of Unilateralism in U.S. Approaches to Nonproliferation 2009–2015: Reset & Error 404 2016–Present: Distrust and Rhetoric. What’s Next? Index