Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructure Accidents: Environmental Impacts Modeling-Identification-Prediction-Optimization-Mitigation

Description

Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructures Accidents presents a probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences. This include three models of the process of the events generated by a critical infrastructure accident, the process of the environment threats and the process of environment degradation. This is all created and adopted to the maritime transport critical infrastructure, with a focus on shipping networks applied to accident consequences modeling. Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructures Accidents is devoted to the assessment methods of consequences of environmental damages, with application to ship accidents. It is a new approach that has never been proposed and applied before and includes methods of modeling, identification, prediction and optimization to allow the reader to better understand the effects of these accidents on our oceans. Moreover, the general procedures and the new strategy presented in the book aim to lower environment losses concerned with chemical releases caused by an accident of ship critical infrastructure network operating within the Baltic Sea or world sea waters. Provides a complete approach to accident consequences modeling, identification, prediction and optimizationPresents the theoretical background, which can be applied practically to maritime critical infrastructure accident consequences analysisIncludes a general model for critical infrastructure accident consequences which is globally applicable and with wide applications in various industrial sectors Cover Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructure Accidents Copyright Contents Preface Acknowledgment 1 Introduction to the analysis of critical infrastructure accident consequences 1.1 Basic notions of process of initiating events 1.2 Basic notions of process of environment threats 1.3 Basic notions of process of environment degradation 2 Shipping as a critical infrastructure 2.1 Overview of ship accidents at Baltic Sea and world sea waters 2.2 Consequences of maritime transport of chemicals for people, environment, and infrastructure 2.2.1 Initiating events caused by world sea ship traffic accidents 2.2.2 Threats from chemical releases into marine environment 2.2.2.1 Explosion of chemical substance in the ship’s accident area (H1 threat) 2.2.2.2 Fire from chemical substance in the ship’s accident area (H2 threat) 2.2.2.3 Presence of toxic substance in the ship’s accident area (H3 threat) 2.2.2.4 Presence of corrosive substance in the ship’s accident area (H4 threat) 2.2.2.5 Presence of bioaccumulative substance in the ship’s accident area (H5 threat) 2.2.2.6 Presence of other dangerous chemical substances in the ship’s accident area (H6 threat) 2.2.3 Marine environment degradation effects coming from chemical releases 3 Modeling critical infrastructure accident consequences 3.1 Modeling process of initiating events 3.2 Modeling process of environment threats 3.3 Modeling process of environment degradation 4 Identification of critical infrastructure accident consequences 4.1 Identification of process of initiating events—theoretical background 4.1.1 Estimating unknown basic parameters of process of initiating events 4.1.2 Estimating parameters of distributions of process of initiating events conditional sojourn times at initiating events... 4.1.3 Identification of distribution functions of process of initiating events conditional sojourn times at initiating even... 4.2 Identification of process of initiating events—application to Baltic Sea and world sea waters 4.2.1 States of the process of initiating events 4.2.2 Statistical identification of process of initiating events at Baltic Sea waters 4.2.2.1 Collected statistical data of process of initiating events 4.2.2.2 Evaluating basic parameters of process of initiating events 4.2.2.3 Evaluating parameters of distributions of conditional sojourn times at initiating events states 4.2.2.4 Identification of distribution functions of conditional sojourn times at initiating event states 4.2.3 Extension of statistical identification of process of initiating events for world sea waters 4.3 Identification of process of environment threats—theoretical background 4.3.1 Estimating unknown basic parameters of process of environment threats 4.3.2 Estimating parameters of distributions of process of environment threats conditional sojourn times at environment thr... 4.3.3 Identification of distribution functions of process of environment threats conditional sojourn times at environment t... 4.4 Identification of process of environment threats—application to Baltic Sea and world sea waters 4.4.1 States of process of environment threats 4.4.2 Statistical identification of process of environment threats at Baltic Sea waters 4.4.2.1 Collected statistical data of process of environment threats 4.4.2.2 Evaluating basic parameters of process of environment threats 4.4.2.3 Identification of distribution functions of conditional sojourn times at environment threats states 4.4.3 Extension of statistical identification of process of environment threats for world sea waters 4.5 Identification of process of environment degradation—theoretical background 4.5.1 Estimating unknown basic parameters of process of environment degradation 4.5.2 Estimating parameters of distributions of process of environment degradation conditional sojourn times at environment... 4.5.3 Identification of distribution functions of process of environment degradation conditional sojourn times at environme... 4.6 Identification of process of environment degradation—application to Baltic Sea and world sea waters 4.6.1 States of process of environment degradation 4.6.2 Statistical identification of process of environment degradation at Baltic Sea waters 4.6.2.1 Collected statistical data of process of environment degradation 4.6.2.2 Evaluating basic parameters of process of environment degradation 4.6.2.3 Identification of distribution functions of conditional sojourn times at environment degradation states 4.6.3 Extension of statistical identification of process of environment degradation for world sea waters 5 Prediction of critical infrastructure accident consequences 5.1 Prediction of process of initiating events 5.1.1 Prediction of process of initiating events at Baltic Sea waters 5.1.2 Prediction of process of initiating events at world sea waters 5.2 Prediction of process of environment threats 5.2.1 Prediction of process of environment threats at Baltic Sea waters 5.2.2 Prediction of process of environment threats at world sea waters 5.3 Prediction of process of environment degradation 5.3.1 Prediction of process of environment degradation at Baltic Sea waters 5.3.2 Prediction of process of environment degradation at world sea waters 5.4 Superposition of initiating events, environment threats and environment degradation processes 5.4.1 Superposition of initiating events, environment threats and environment degradation processes at Baltic Sea waters 5.4.2 Superposition of initiating events, environment threats and environment degradation processes at world sea waters 6 Modeling critical infrastructure accident losses 6.1 Critical infrastructure accident losses 6.2 Integrated impact model on critical infrastructure accident consequences related to climate–weather change process 6.2.1 Critical infrastructure accident area climate–weather change process 6.2.2 Critical infrastructure accident losses related to climate–weather impact 6.3 Critical infrastructure accident losses—application for Baltic Sea and world sea waters 6.3.1 Losses of shipping critical infrastructure accident at Baltic Sea waters without considering climate–weather change p... 6.3.1.1 Open and restricted sea waters 6.3.1.2 Gdynia and Karlskrona ports 6.3.2 Losses of shipping critical infrastructure accident at Baltic Sea waters with considering climate–weather change proc... 6.3.2.1 Open and restricted sea waters 6.3.2.2 Gdynia and Karlskrona ports 6.3.3 Losses of shipping critical infrastructure accident without considering climate–weather change process impact—extensi... 6.3.3.1 Open and restricted sea waters 6.3.3.2 Gdynia and Karlskrona ports 6.3.4 Losses of shipping critical infrastructure accident with considering the climate–weather change process impact—extens... 6.3.4.1 Open and restricted sea waters 6.3.4.2 Gdynia and Karlskrona ports 6.3.5 Losses of shipping critical infrastructure accident at Baltic Sea and world sea waters—analysis of results 7 Optimization of critical infrastructure accident losses 7.1 Critical infrastructure accident losses minimization without considering climate–weather change process impact—theoreti... 7.2 Critical infrastructure accident losses minimization with considering climate–weather change process impact—theoretical... 7.3 Critical infrastructure accident losses minimization—application for Baltic Sea and world sea waters 7.3.1 Minimization of critical infrastructure accident losses without considering climate–weather change process impact 7.3.1.1 Open and restricted sea waters 7.3.1.2 Gdynia and Karlskrona ports 7.3.2 Minimization of critical infrastructure accident losses with considering climate–weather change process impact 7.3.2.1 Open sea waters 7.3.2.2 Restricted sea waters 7.3.2.3 Gdynia and Karlskrona ports 7.3.3 Minimization of critical infrastructure accident losses without considering climate–weather change process impact—ext... 7.3.4 Minimization of critical infrastructure accident losses with considering climate–weather change process impact—extens... 8 Mitigation of critical infrastructure accident losses 8.1 Inventory of accident losses at Baltic Sea waters 8.2 Inventory of accident losses at world sea waters 8.3 Strategy for mitigation of critical infrastructure accident losses 9 Summary Bibliography Appendices Appendix 1 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of initiating events at Baltic Sea waters Appendix 2 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of initiating events at world sea waters Appendix 3 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment threats at Baltic Sea waters Appendix 4 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment threats at world sea waters Appendix 5 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment degradation at Baltic Sea waters Appendix 6 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment degradation at world sea waters Appendix 7 Table of chi-square distribution Appendix 8 Procedures of modeling, identification, prediction, optimization, and mitigation of critical infrastructure acci... Modeling Identification Prediction Optimization Mitigation Index Back Cover