Renewable Energy: Forecasting and Risk Management: Paris, France, June 7-9, 2017

Description

Gathering selected, revised and extended contributions from the conference ‘Forecasting and Risk Management for Renewable Energy FOREWER’, which took place in Paris in June 2017, this book focuses on the applications of statistics to the risk management and forecasting problems arising in the renewable energy industry. The different contributions explore all aspects of the energy production chain: forecasting and probabilistic modelling of renewable resources, including probabilistic forecasting approaches; modelling and forecasting of wind and solar power production; prediction of electricity demand; optimal operation of microgrids involving renewable production; and finally the effect of renewable production on electricity market prices. Written by experts in statistics, probability, risk management, economics and electrical engineering, this multidisciplinary volume will serve as a reference on renewable energy risk management and at the same time as a source of inspiration for statisticians and probabilists aiming to work on energy-related problems. Front Matter ....Pages i-xiii Front Matter ....Pages 1-1 Marginal Weibull Diffusion Model for Wind Speed Modeling and Short-Term Forecasting (Alain Bensoussan, Alexandre Brouste)....Pages 3-22 From Numerical Weather Prediction Outputs to Accurate Local Surface Wind Speed: Statistical Modeling and Forecasts (Bastien Alonzo, Riwal Plougonven, Mathilde Mougeot, Aurélie Fischer, Aurore Dupré, Philippe Drobinski)....Pages 23-44 Stochastic Lagrangian Approach for Wind Farm Simulation (Mireille Bossy, Aurore Dupré, Philippe Drobinski, Laurent Violeau, Christian Briard)....Pages 45-71 Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecast of Solar Irradiance: A Stochastic Differential Equation Approach (Jordi Badosa, Emmanuel Gobet, Maxime Grangereau, Daeyoung Kim)....Pages 73-93 Homogeneous Climate Regions Using Learning Algorithms (Mathilde Mougeot, Dominique Picard, Vincent Lefieux, Miranda Marchand)....Pages 95-118 Electricity Demand Forecasting: The Uruguayan Case (Andrés Castrillejo, Jairo Cugliari, Fernando Massa, Ignacio Ramirez)....Pages 119-136 A Flexible Mixed Additive-Multiplicative Model for Load Forecasting in a Smart Grid Setting (Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei)....Pages 137-145 A Generic Method for Density Forecasts Recalibration (Jérôme Collet, Michael Richard)....Pages 147-166 Front Matter ....Pages 167-167 Anticipating Some of the Challenges and Solutions for 60% Renewable Energy Sources in the European Electricity System (Vera Silva, Miguel López-Botet Zulueta, Ye Wang, Paul Fourment, Timothee Hinchliffe, Alain Burtin et al.)....Pages 169-184 A Joint Model for Electricity Spot Prices and Wind Penetration with Dependence in the Extremes (Thomas Deschatre, Almut E. D. Veraart)....Pages 185-207 The Optimal Control of Storage for Arbitrage and Buffering, with Energy Applications (James Cruise, Stan Zachary)....Pages 209-227 Optimal Management of a Wind Power Plant with Storage Capacity (Jérôme Collet, Olivier Féron, Peter Tankov)....Pages 229-246