False Feedback in Economics: The Case for Replication
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Cover Half Title Series Information Title Page Copyright Page Dedication Table of Contents Introduction 1 Scientific Progress 2 Trial and Error 3 Conjectures and Falsification 4 The Garden of Forking Paths 4.1 Researcher Degrees of Freedom 4.2 Equipollence 4.3 Silent Steps 4.4 Variation in Feedback Note 5 The Duhem–quine Thesis 6 The Detection of Patterns 6.1 Specification Searching 6.2 P-Hacking in Practice 6.3 Multiple Comparisons 6.4 Underdetermination 6.5 Reverse Engineering 6.6 Biased Estimates Versus False Positives 6.7 Self-Deception and Deception of Others 6.8 Abandon Statistical Significance? Notes 7 The Illusion of True Feedback 8 False Feedback Bubbles 9 The Tree of Knowledge 10 The Locality of Knowledge 11 Machine Learning and Sample Splits 12 Practical Experience 13 Robustness Checks 14 Replication 14.1 A Defense 14.2 Transparency 14.3 Exploration and Confirmation 14.4 Repeated Replication 14.5 Incentives 14.6 A Culture of Replication References Index
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