Statistics Behind the Headlines

Description

How do you learn about what’s going on in the world? Did a news headline grab your attention? Did a news story report on recent research? What do you need to know to be a critical consumer of the news you read? If you are looking to start developing your data self-defense and critical news consumption skills, this book is for you! It reflects a long-term collaboration between a statistician and a journalist to shed light on the statistics behind the stories and the stories behind the statistics. The only prerequisite for enjoying this book is an interest in developing the skills and insights for better understanding news stories that incorporate quantitative information. Chapters in Statistics Behind the Headlines kick off with a news story headline and a summary of the story itself. The meat of each chapter consists of an exploration of the statistical and journalism concepts needed to understand the data analyzed and reported in the story. The chapters are organized around these sections: What ideas will you encounter in this chapter?What is claimed? Is it appropriate?Who is claiming this?Why is it claimed? What makes this a story worth telling?Is this a good measure of impact?How is the claim supported?What evidence is reported?What is the quality/strength of the evidence?Does the claim seem reasonable?How does this claim fit with what is already known?How much does this matter?Considering the coverage Chapters close with connections to the Stats + Stories podcast. Cover Half Title Series Page Title Page Copyright Page Table of Contents Preface Acknowledgments Chapter 1 A Field Guide to Reading the Statistics behind the Headlines Journalists and Statisticians Share Similar Goals Structure of Each Chapter Statistical Concepts to Be Explored What Is It? How Much Is There? Data Generation/Producing Data Describing Data Drawing Conclusions from Data If I Do This, Then That Will Happen Journalism 101 Chapter 2 Predicting Global Population Growth and Framing How You Report It Story Summary What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter? What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate? Who Is Claiming This? Why Is It Claimed? What Makes This a Story Worth Telling? Is This a Good Measure of Impact? How Is the Claim Supported? What Evidence Is Reported? What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence? Does the Claim Seem Reasonable? How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known? How Much Does This Matter? Comparison of Population Perspective versus Individual Perspective? Will I Change My Behavior as a Consequence of This? Considering the Coverage Review Stats + Stories Podcasts References – World Population Projection Notes Chapter 3 Social Media and Mental Health Story Summary What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter? What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate? Who Is Claiming This? Why Is It Claimed? Is This a Good Measure of Impact? Variables Odds and Odds Ratios How Is the Claim Supported? What Evidence Is Reported? What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence? Is a 2x Increase in Odds of Problems a Cause for Concern? What Are the Baseline Rates of These Mental Health Problems? Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias? How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known? How Much Does This Matter to Me? Does a Study of U.S. Young Teens Translate to Older Teens or to Other Countries? Considering the Coverage Review Stats + Stories Podcasts Notes Chapter 4 Speedy Sneakers: Technological Boosterism or Sound Science? Story Summary What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter? What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate? Who Is Claiming This? Why Is It Claimed? Is This a Good Measure of Impact? How Is the Claim Supported? What Evidence Is Reported? What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence? Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias? How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known? How Much Does This Matter to Me? Considering the Coverage Review To Learn More A Bonus Story Stats + Stories Podcasts Chapter 5 Investigating Series Binge-Watching Story Summary What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter? What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate? Who Is Claiming This? Why Is It Claimed? Is This a Good Measure of Impact? How Is the Claim Supported? What Evidence Is Reported? How Much Television Do You Watch? Government Survey Says … Are You a Binge-Watcher? Industry Report Says … Is Watching Lots of TV Is Good, Bad or Both for You? Experts Say … Binging and Stress? Scientific Presentation Says … What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence? Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias? How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known? How Much Does This Matter to Me? Considering the Coverage Review Stats + Stories Podcasts Chapter 6 Tracking the Spread of “False News” Story Summary What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter? What Is Claimed? and Is It Appropriate? Who Is Claiming This? Why Is It Claimed? Is This a Good Measure of Impact? How Is the Claim Supported? What Evidence Is Reported? What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence? Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias? How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known? How Much Does This Matter to Me? Considering the Coverage Review Stats + Stories Podcasts Note Chapter 7 Modeling What It Means to “Flatten the Curve” Story Summary What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter? What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate? Who Is Claiming This? Why Is It Claimed? Is This a Good Measure of Impact? How Is the Claim Supported? What Evidence Is Reported? What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence? Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias? How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known? How Much Does This Matter to Me? Considering the Coverage Review and Recap COVID Coda Stats + Stories Podcasts Chapter 8 One Governor, Two Outcomes and Three COVID Tests Story Summary What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter? What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate? Who Is Claiming This? Why Is It Claimed? Is This a Good Measure of Impact? How Is the Claim Supported? What Evidence Is Reported? What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence? Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias Community with Low Rate of Infection Rapid, Less Accurate Test Slower, More Accurate Test Community with a Higher Rate of Infection Rapid, Less Accurate Test Slower, More Accurate Test How Much Does This Matter to Me? Considering the Coverage Review Stats + Stories Podcasts Chapter 9 Research Reproducibility and Reporting Results Story Summary What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter? What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate? Who Is Claiming This? Why Is It Claimed? What Makes This a Story Worth Telling? Is This a Good Measure of Impact? How Is the Claim Supported? What Evidence Is Reported? What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence? Does the Claim Seem Reasonable? How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known? How Much Does This Matter? Comparison of Population Perspective versus Individual Perspective? Will I Change My Behavior as a Consequence of This? Considering the Coverage Review Coda: A New 3 R’s? Stats + Stories Podcasts Chapter 10 Now, What? Consider the Weight of Evidence Consider the Source Consider the History Be a Critical Reader … of Everything Bibliography Index