Handbook of Cliometrics

Description

The Handbook of Cliometrics is a milestone in the field of historical economics and econometric history through its emphasis on the concrete contribution of cliometrics to our knowledge in economics and history. The articles in the handbook authored by the leading scholars in the fields, stress the usefulness of cliometrics for economists, historians and social scientists in general. The Handbook offers a comprehensive coverage of topics with each article providing an overview of the contributions of cliometrics to a particular topic. The Handbook has set a new standard of quality in the field by offering a world-wide forum of discussion in cliometrics. The second edition of the Handbook offers a substantially enlarged collection of articles and thus stresses its unique position as authoritative reference work in this field. Aims and Scope......Page 5 The Methodological Features......Page 6 The Main Achievements......Page 7 A Branch of History?......Page 8 An Auxiliary Discipline of Economics?......Page 9 A Full-Fledged Field of Economic Theory?......Page 10 The Contents......Page 11 References......Page 13 Preface to Second Edition......Page 15 Preface to First Edition......Page 17 Contents......Page 19 About the Editors......Page 24 Contributors......Page 25 Part I: History......Page 30 History of Cliometrics......Page 31 Introduction......Page 32 Cliometrics......Page 33 The Economic History Discipline......Page 35 Economic History in America......Page 39 The NBER......Page 41 Business History......Page 42 Founding of the EHA......Page 44 The New Economic History Movement......Page 47 The Shortcomings of Clio......Page 51 Clio´s Accomplishments......Page 52 Conclusion......Page 54 References......Page 55 The Contributions of Robert Fogel to Cliometrics......Page 61 Introduction: Robert Fogel as a Pioneer of Cliometrics......Page 62 Robert Fogel´s Biography and His Students......Page 63 The New Economic History: The Role of Theory and Quantification......Page 65 The Reinterpretation of American Economic History......Page 70 Economic History as the Study of Economic Growth......Page 71 Union Pacific as Premature Enterprise......Page 73 Railroads and American Economic Growth......Page 75 The Study of Industrial Expansion: Antebellum US Iron and Steel......Page 76 Time on the Cross and Without Consent or Contract......Page 77 The Fallout from the Slavery Controversy......Page 79 Demography, Anthropometrics and Technophysio Evolution......Page 80 Conclusion: Fogel, Kuznets, and the Empirical Tradition in Economics......Page 82 Selected Works by Robert William Fogel (in Order of Publication)......Page 84 Published Items......Page 85 Douglass North and Cliometrics......Page 88 Introduction......Page 89 North´s Early Career as a Neoclassical Economist and Cliometrician......Page 91 From Cliometrics to Neoclassical Theories of Institutional Change......Page 95 Expanding the Frame of Institutional Economics......Page 100 Expanding the Horizons of Economists: From Cognitive Science to Political Orders......Page 105 Do Institutions Matter? North and His Critics......Page 108 North´s Legacy......Page 110 Selected References by Douglass C. North (In Order of Publication)......Page 111 Other Selected References......Page 113 Economic History and Economic Development: New Economic History in Retrospect and Prospect......Page 115 References......Page 131 Economic History as Humanomics......Page 134 What Economic History Has Become......Page 135 What Economic History Could Be......Page 138 Conclusion......Page 142 References......Page 146 Cliometrics and the Study of Canadian Economic History......Page 148 Introduction......Page 149 Resource-Led Growth: Curse or Blessing......Page 150 Indigenous Peoples and the Fur Trade: Market Signals, Demography, and Depletion......Page 153 The Wheat Boom: Time Series Analysis and the Identification of Structural Breaks......Page 154 The Adoption of Protectionism: General Equilibrium and ``New Trade´´ Models......Page 156 Transport Costs: Intracontinental Shipping and the Subsidization of Railways......Page 160 Immigration: Self-Selection and Assimilation......Page 162 Entrepreneurial Failure: Measuring Productivity and Technological Change......Page 164 Concluding Remarks......Page 166 References......Page 167 Part II: Human Capital......Page 170 Human Capital......Page 171 What Is Human Capital?......Page 172 Why the Study of Human Capital Is Inherently Historical......Page 173 Human Capital and Economic Performance in the Long Run: Escaping Malthus......Page 175 Human Capital, Institutions, and Economic Growth......Page 178 Formal Schooling in Europe and America......Page 180 Why Invest in Education or Training?......Page 186 Role of the State in Education......Page 187 Why Education Levels Increased......Page 189 Race Between Education and Technology......Page 191 Human Capital and Education: Concluding Remarks......Page 192 Health Human Capital and Income......Page 193 Measures of Health Human Capital......Page 194 Phase I: Improvements in Nutrition......Page 196 Phase II: Public Health Interventions......Page 197 Human Capital: Summary......Page 198 References......Page 199 Labor Markets......Page 202 Definition of the Labor Force......Page 203 What Is a Labor Market?......Page 205 Documenting the American Labor Force......Page 207 Size and Composition of the American Labor Force......Page 209 The Intensive Margin......Page 211 Occupations and Skills......Page 213 Wages: The Price of Labor......Page 215 Long-Run Growth in Real Wages......Page 216 Regional Differences: The Emergence of a National Labor Market in the Nineteenth Century......Page 217 Diversity in the Labor Market: Racial Differences......Page 220 Directions for Future Research......Page 222 References......Page 223 The Human Capital Transition and the Role of Policy......Page 227 Introduction......Page 228 Long-Run Economic Development and Human Capital......Page 229 Principles of Human Capital Theory......Page 232 Apprenticeships......Page 235 The Role of Guilds......Page 236 The Decline of Apprenticeships......Page 238 The Gutenberg Revolution......Page 239 Early Private Demand for Books and Literacy......Page 242 Early Spiritual Demands for Mass Education......Page 244 The Pros and Cons of Mass Education......Page 247 Books in the Industrial Revolution......Page 248 Industrial Demands for Education......Page 249 The Incentives for the Nation-State to Provide Mass Schooling......Page 251 Government Intervention in Education......Page 252 Trends in Worldwide Human Capital Levels During the Last Two Centuries......Page 260 Human Capital and the State......Page 263 Conclusion......Page 264 References......Page 267 Education and Socioeconomic Development During the Industrialization......Page 274 Introduction......Page 275 Education and Economic Development......Page 276 The Relevance of Education for Industrialization......Page 277 Evidence from the First Phase of Industrialization......Page 278 Evidence from the Second Phase of Industrialization......Page 279 Different Levels of Education......Page 280 A Human Capital Theory of Protestant Economic History......Page 281 Education and Protestant Economic Development Over the Nineteenth Century......Page 283 Gender-Specific Developments......Page 284 The Expansion of Advanced Schools and Religious Participation......Page 285 Different Levels of Education......Page 287 The Trade-Off Between Children´s Education and Fertility......Page 288 Women´s Education and Their Fertility......Page 290 Conclusion......Page 291 References......Page 292 Gender in Economic History......Page 295 How Much Did Women Participate in the Economy?......Page 296 Why Did Women Earn Less than Men?......Page 300 Why Did Men and Women Do Different Work?......Page 305 What Determines Gender Roles?......Page 311 What Role Did Women Play in Economic Growth?......Page 314 References......Page 317 International Migration in the Atlantic Economy 1850-1940......Page 321 Introduction......Page 322 Determinants of International Migration......Page 323 Immigration Policy......Page 327 Immigrant Selection......Page 330 Immigrant Assimilation......Page 334 The Effects of Migration......Page 337 The Legacy of Historical Immigration......Page 340 Conclusion......Page 343 References......Page 344 Cliometrics and the Concept of Human Capital......Page 350 Introduction......Page 351 Forerunners......Page 352 Schultz´s Early Developments and the Opportunity of Solow´s Residual......Page 354 The Synthesis Provided by Schultz, Becker, and Mincer......Page 355 Theoretical and Methodological Objections......Page 357 Skepticism About the Measurement of Human Capital......Page 360 Section III. Human Capital and the Industrialization Process......Page 362 Human Capital and Early Industrialization: A Paradox in Economic History?......Page 363 The Paradox Under Review: Re-evaluating What Human Capital Is......Page 364 Conclusion......Page 369 References......Page 370 Age-Heaping-Based Human Capital Estimates......Page 375 Introduction......Page 376 Advantages, Potential Biases, and Heaping Patterns......Page 378 Whipple, ABCC, and Other Indexes......Page 381 Reconstructing Very Early Numeracy Differences: The Example of Inca Indios......Page 385 Religion and Numeracy......Page 386 Path Dependency of Early Numeracy and Land Inequality as Determinants of Modern Math and Science Skills?......Page 387 Numeracy Differences Between Occupational Groups in Preindustrial Times......Page 388 A Human Capital Revolution in Europe......Page 389 Numeracy Levels in Latin America......Page 390 Industrialized Countries Versus the Rest of the World?......Page 391 Numeracy Trends of Women in Some Industrialized Countries......Page 392 The Gender Gap in Latin America......Page 393 The Gender Gap in Asia......Page 395 References......Page 396 Introduction......Page 399 The Nature of Church Book Registers......Page 403 How the Registers Have Been Used......Page 407 What Is Next?......Page 415 References......Page 416 Part III: Growth......Page 419 Cliometrics of Growth......Page 420 Introduction......Page 421 Evolution of Output and Population Growth in Western Europe......Page 423 Takeoff: Post-Malthusian Phase......Page 424 Sustained Growth: Modern Growth Regime......Page 425 Main Challenges......Page 426 Traditional Theories of Economic Growth......Page 427 The Malthusian Theory......Page 428 New Home Economics......Page 429 The Endogenous Growth Theory......Page 430 The Theories of Demographic Transition......Page 431 The Building Blocks of the Theory......Page 433 Complementary Factors: The Role of Female Empowerment......Page 434 References......Page 436 Preindustrial Economic Growth, ca. 1270-1820......Page 439 Introduction......Page 440 Stylized Facts About Preindustrial Growth in Europe......Page 441 Real Wages......Page 442 Per Capita GDP......Page 443 The Black Death......Page 446 Explanations for the ``Little Divergence´´......Page 449 Conclusion......Page 451 References......Page 452 The Industrial Revolution: A Cliometric Perspective......Page 455 Introduction......Page 456 The Problem of the Netherlands......Page 465 Property in Knowledge......Page 471 Ideas and the Industrial Revolution......Page 477 How Sudden was the Industrial Revolution? Revolution or Evolution?......Page 479 Changes in People......Page 482 Conclusion......Page 489 References......Page 490 The Antebellum US Economy......Page 494 Estimates of Gross Domestic Product, 1790-1860......Page 495 Napoleonic Wars, Embargo, and the War of 1812......Page 498 Turnpikes......Page 500 Canals......Page 501 Steamboats on Western Rivers......Page 502 Railroads......Page 503 Productivity Growth in Agriculture......Page 504 Biological Sources of Productivity Growth......Page 506 Manufacturing and American Technology......Page 507 Economic Growth in Slave South and Free North......Page 510 References......Page 513 Economic-Demographic Interactions in the European Long Run Growth......Page 517 Introduction......Page 518 Data......Page 519 Population, Natural Increase, and the Economy......Page 522 Demographic Transition and Economic Growth......Page 528 Migration and the Economy......Page 531 Identification and Estimation......Page 533 Time Series Analyses......Page 535 Conclusion......Page 537 References......Page 538 The Golden Age of European Economic Growth......Page 542 Introduction......Page 543 Growth Performance......Page 544 The Janossy Hypothesis......Page 548 Macroeconomic Stability......Page 551 Structural Change......Page 552 The Marshall Plan and the European Economic Community......Page 554 Social Capability and Technological Congruence......Page 556 High Investment/Wage Restraint Cooperative equilibrium......Page 558 Relative Economic Decline in the UK......Page 560 Incomplete Catch-Up......Page 562 Social Capability in Different Technological Eras......Page 563 Supply-Side Policy......Page 564 The Celtic Tiger......Page 566 Conclusions......Page 568 References......Page 569 GDP and Convergence in Modern Times......Page 575 Introduction......Page 576 GDP: Concept, Limits, and Success......Page 577 Reconstructing GDP: Methods and Problems......Page 582 Convergence or Divergence? Measures and Models......Page 590 A Further Step: From National to Regional Estimates (and Models)......Page 598 Concluding Remarks......Page 601 References......Page 602 Cliometric Approaches to International Trade......Page 606 Why Look at Trade?......Page 607 Measuring the Extent of Trade and Market Integration......Page 614 What Determines Trade?......Page 621 And What About Trade Policy?......Page 628 References......Page 633 Market Integration......Page 644 Introduction......Page 645 The General Framework: What Is Market Integration and why it Is Relevant......Page 646 The First Wave: Measurement......Page 651 The Second Wave: The Causes of Integration......Page 654 The Third Wave: The Effects of Integration......Page 663 Conclusion: Taking Stock......Page 665 References......Page 667 Part IV: Institutions......Page 670 African-American Slavery and the Cliometric Revolution......Page 671 Introduction......Page 672 Conrad and Meyer......Page 673 Following Conrad and Meyer......Page 676 Self-Sufficiency of the Plantation......Page 678 The Interstate Slave Trade and Slave Breeding......Page 682 Economic Growth and Manufacturing Development of the South......Page 686 The Debate over Time on the Cross......Page 693 The Relative Efficiency of Slavery......Page 695 Economies of Scale and Gang Labor......Page 699 The Stability of the Black Family......Page 701 After the Controversy......Page 702 Group Sales and Price Discounts in the Market for Slaves......Page 706 Biological Innovation and Southern Agricultural Development......Page 708 An Assessment......Page 709 References......Page 710 Institutions......Page 717 Introduction......Page 718 What Are Institutions?......Page 719 The Effect of Institutions......Page 720 The Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth......Page 722 Criticisms of the Claims for Institutions......Page 724 Explaining Institutional Change......Page 729 New directions......Page 731 References......Page 733 Political Economy......Page 737 Introduction......Page 738 The Introduction of Political Economy into Cliometrics......Page 739 Origins of the State......Page 741 City-States and Republics......Page 742 Medieval States and Feudal Institutions......Page 743 Conflict and Consensus......Page 745 Warfare......Page 747 Patterns of Political Fragmentation and Political Centralization......Page 748 State Finances......Page 750 Religion......Page 751 State Capacity......Page 752 The Glorious Revolution......Page 753 The Political Economy of Empire......Page 756 The Consequences of the French Revolution......Page 758 Political Repression......Page 759 Revolution, Democracy, Public Goods......Page 760 Concluding Comments......Page 761 References......Page 762 Merchant Empires......Page 770 Introduction......Page 771 Trade......Page 772 Administration......Page 774 Defense......Page 776 Contrasting Empires......Page 778 A Model of Organizational Choice......Page 780 Historical Context of the Emergence of Merchant Empires......Page 782 Different Firms......Page 785 The Demise of the Companies and the Rise of Colonialism......Page 787 References......Page 790 Colonial America......Page 793 Introduction......Page 794 Income at the End of the Colonial Period......Page 795 Economic Growth......Page 796 Wealth Accumulation......Page 799 The Colonial Economy......Page 801 Regional Differentiation in the Colonial Economy......Page 802 Free and Unfree Labor in the Colonies......Page 803 Institutions and Economic Development......Page 805 Institutions in Colonial America......Page 806 The Colonial Monetary System......Page 808 Mercantilism......Page 809 Regional Variation Within the Colonies......Page 810 Economics, Politics, and Revolution......Page 811 After the Revolution: American Independence......Page 814 Conclusion......Page 815 References......Page 816 Property Rights to Frontier Land and Minerals: US Exceptionalism......Page 819 Introduction......Page 820 The Economic Institutions of Property Rights......Page 821 Social and Political Institutions of Property Rights: Pre-frontier......Page 823 Property Rights to Land on the US Frontier......Page 824 Colonial Property Rights to Land......Page 825 Federal Property Rights Policies for Land......Page 827 The Private Provision of Public Goods by Land Owners......Page 830 Property Rights to Minerals and Oil and Gas Deposits......Page 831 Property Rights on Latin American Frontiers......Page 833 Conclusion......Page 835 References......Page 836 Major Water Infrastructure and Institutions in the Development of the American West......Page 840 Introduction......Page 841 Westward Expansion......Page 843 The Development of Agriculture and Water Infrastructure in the Arid West......Page 846 The Development of the Urban West: Agriculture to Urban Growth......Page 853 The Electrification of the City and Farm......Page 855 Concluding Thoughts......Page 857 References......Page 859 Part V: Money, Banking, and Finance......Page 862 Early Capital Markets......Page 863 Concepts......Page 864 Precursor Solutions......Page 867 Joint-Stock Companies......Page 870 Secondary Stock Markets......Page 872 Monarchies......Page 873 Republics......Page 875 Joint-Stock Sovereign Debt......Page 877 References......Page 880 Origins of the U.S. Financial System......Page 883 Introduction......Page 884 Money and Banking in Colonial America......Page 885 Revolution......Page 889 Constitution and Financial Revolution......Page 892 War of 1812 and Advent of the Second Bank of the United States......Page 899 Financial Sector Development and Growth to 1836......Page 903 Conclusion......Page 905 References......Page 906 Cliometrics and Antebellum Banking......Page 908 The Antebellum Bank Balance Sheet......Page 909 Bank Notes......Page 910 The Structure of the Banking System in the Antebellum Era......Page 912 The End of the Second Bank and the Jacksonian Inflation......Page 913 Free Banking and Wildcat Banking......Page 916 The Gold Inflation of the 1850s......Page 923 Conclusion......Page 924 References......Page 925 Financial Markets and Cliometrics......Page 929 Sovereign Government Bonds......Page 930 Short-Term Commercial Finance......Page 936 Next Steps......Page 939 Concluding Remarks......Page 941 References......Page 944 Financial Systems......Page 949 What Does a Financial System Do?......Page 950 Designing Financial Systems: Functions Versus Institutions......Page 952 The Standard Paradigm of Financial System ``Types´´......Page 953 Relationship Versus Arm´s-Length Banking......Page 954 Market-Based Versus Bank-Based Financial Systems......Page 955 Connections Among the Three System Dichotomies......Page 956 Universality Versus Specialization......Page 957 Relationship Versus Arm´s-Length Banking......Page 963 Bank Versus Market Orientation......Page 966 Bank Branching Versus Unit Banking......Page 967 Financial System Evolution Over the Twentieth Century......Page 968 What Causes Financial System Differences Historically?......Page 975 Theories: Economics, Law, and Politics......Page 976 Empirical Evidence......Page 978 Literature on the Finance-Growth Nexus......Page 979 Financial System ``Types´´ and Long-Run Growth Patterns......Page 981 Conclusion......Page 982 References......Page 983 The Cliometric Study of Financial Panics and Crashes......Page 987 Survival Models and Hazard Functions......Page 988 Branch Banking and Duration Models......Page 989 Free Bank Failures and Cox Proportional Hazard Models......Page 991 Financial Panics and Archival Scraping......Page 992 Deposit Insurance, Efficiency, and DEA Analysis......Page 994 Fed Intervention and Difference-in-Difference Models......Page 995 Vector Autoregression (VAR)......Page 998 Instrumental Variables (IV)......Page 1000 Difference-in-Difference (DD)......Page 1001 Conclusion......Page 1002 References......Page 1003 Payment Systems......Page 1005 Coinage, Money Changers, and Deposit Banking......Page 1006 Bills of Exchange......Page 1009 Notes, Checks, and Clearing Houses......Page 1010 Correspondent Banking Networks in Nineteenth-Century America......Page 1014 The Twentieth Century......Page 1018 Summary......Page 1022 References......Page 1023 Interest Rates......Page 1026 Introduction......Page 1027 The Rate of Return on Investment and the Production Function......Page 1029 Theoretical and Effective Interest Rates......Page 1031 Market Interest Rates: Sources and Calculation Methods......Page 1032 Market Integration and Market Risk: Differences Between Rates in Several Areas......Page 1034 Interest Rates and Political Regimes......Page 1035 Interest Rates, Financial, and Macroeconomic Cycles......Page 1037 When Interest Rates Do Not Clear Markets......Page 1039 Conclusion......Page 1041 References......Page 1042 The Great Depression in the United States......Page 1045 Introduction......Page 1046 New Keynesian Macroeconomic Models......Page 1049 Runs on Financial Intermediaries......Page 1052 Mechanics of Monetary Policy Implementation......Page 1053 America´s Banks......Page 1054 The Federal Reserve System......Page 1055 The Gold Standard and the Fed´s Monetary Policy Strategy......Page 1057 1928: The Federal Reserve Hikes Short-Term Interest Rates......Page 1059 The Initial Downturn 1929-1930......Page 1060 Continued Decline 1930-1933......Page 1062 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy......Page 1063 Bank Failures and the Financial Crisis of 1933......Page 1066 Where Was the Lender of Last Resort?......Page 1067 Aggregate Supply in the 1929-1933 Downturn: Wage Inflation, Price Inflation, and Real Wages......Page 1069 Revival of the Banking System......Page 1072 Expected Future Inflation......Page 1073 Aggregate Supply over 1933-1937: Anomalous Inflation......Page 1074 The 1937 Downturn......Page 1075 References......Page 1076 Central Banking......Page 1081 Introduction......Page 1082 Early Studies of Central Banking......Page 1083 Antebellum US Central Banking......Page 1084 Postbellum Central Banking and Clearinghouses......Page 1085 The National Banking Era and Currency Reform......Page 1088 The National Monetary Commission and the Fed......Page 1089 Extended Histories of Central Banking and the Fed and the Rise of Cliometrics......Page 1090 The Payments System and Correspondent Banking......Page 1098 Clio and Banking Databases......Page 1100 Conclusions......Page 1101 Cross-References......Page 1102 References......Page 1103 Sovereign Debt......Page 1106 Introduction......Page 1107 How Much Debt Can States Carry?......Page 1108 The Nature of Defaults......Page 1109 Sovereign Debt in History......Page 1110 Instruments and Innovations: A Very Short Summary......Page 1111 Data Sources......Page 1113 Fiscal Sustainability......Page 1114 First-Generation Reputational Models......Page 1118 Sanction-Based Models......Page 1119 Second-Generation Reputational Models: Cheat-the-Cheater Strategies......Page 1121 Bubbles, Sentiment, and Irrationality......Page 1122 Excusable Defaults......Page 1123 Market Power and Incomplete Contracting......Page 1124 The Preeminence of Reputation......Page 1125 The Political Economy of Debt......Page 1126 References......Page 1127 Corporate Governance......Page 1130 Introduction......Page 1131 The Emergence and Relevance of Corporations......Page 1132 The Separation of Ownership and Control......Page 1137 Managerial Incentives......Page 1141 Dividends......Page 1143 Boards......Page 1145 Product Market Competition......Page 1148 Cross-References......Page 1149 References......Page 1150 Part VI: Government, Health, and Welfare......Page 1152 Anthropometrics......Page 1153 Origins......Page 1154 Methodology......Page 1156 American Slavery......Page 1159 Industrialization......Page 1161 Inequality......Page 1163 Native Americans......Page 1164 Fetal Origins Hypothesis......Page 1165 Research Frontiers......Page 1166 References......Page 1167 Wealth and Income Inequality in the Long Run of History......Page 1172 Introduction......Page 1173 How Economic Inequality Has Changed over the Centuries......Page 1174 The Medieval and Early Modern Period (From ca. 1300 to 1800)......Page 1175 The Modern Period (From ca. 1800 Until Today)......Page 1179 Glimpses into a More Remote Past: From Prehistory to the Classical Age......Page 1184 Economic Variables......Page 1186 Demography and Society......Page 1190 Institutions......Page 1193 Conclusions: What Lessons from History?......Page 1197 References......Page 1198 Agricliometrics and Agricultural Change in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries......Page 1201 Introduction......Page 1202 Increase in Production......Page 1203 Growth in Productivity......Page 1205 Technological Change......Page 1207 Market Integration and Agricultural Trade......Page 1209 Export-Led Growth......Page 1213 Agricultural Trade in the Second Wave of Globalization......Page 1214 Public Intervention in the Agricultural Sector......Page 1217 Property Rights, Agrarian Contracts, and Labor......Page 1221 Agricultural Cooperatives......Page 1223 The Privatization of the Common Lands......Page 1224 Conclusion......Page 1225 References......Page 1226 Nutrition, the Biological Standard of Living, and Cliometrics......Page 1234 Introduction: Nutrition and the Standard of Living......Page 1235 Nutrition, the Health Transition, and the Techno-Physio Evolution......Page 1237 The Biological Standard of Living and the Antebellum Puzzle......Page 1239 Nutrition, Stature, and Income......Page 1241 Nutrition, Mortality, and Morbidity......Page 1243 Nutrition and Technological Change......Page 1245 Conclusion......Page 1247 References......Page 1248 Improvements in Health and the Organization and Development of Health Care and Health Insurance Markets......Page 1251 Improvements in Public Health......Page 1252 Water Purification and Sewage Systems......Page 1253 The Eradication of Parasites......Page 1255 Improvements in Diet......Page 1256 Reforms in Medical Education and the Changing Public Perception of Hospitals......Page 1257 Occupational Licensing of Health Care Providers......Page 1258 Physicians......Page 1260 Midwives......Page 1261 Medical Costs and the Development of the Health Insurance Market......Page 1263 The Impact of War on Poverty on Health Insurance......Page 1265 Directions for Future Research......Page 1266 References......Page 1267 Cliometrics and the Great Depression......Page 1271 The Great Contraction......Page 1272 Why?......Page 1276 Measuring the Recovery......Page 1282 Monetary Policies......Page 1284 Fiscal Policy......Page 1285 Alphabet Soup......Page 1286 Conclusions......Page 1290 References......Page 1291 Cliometric Approaches to War......Page 1295 Introduction......Page 1296 Theme 1: Medieval and Early Modern Warfare......Page 1297 Theme 2: Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars......Page 1300 Theme 3: World Wars......Page 1302 Theme 4: Cold War and Beyond......Page 1308 Theme 5: Long-Run Analyses (Military Spending, Societal Structures, and Empires)......Page 1311 Conclusion......Page 1314 References......Page 1315 War and Cliometrics in an Age of Catastrophes......Page 1319 An Age of Catastrophes......Page 1320 The Economics of the Great War......Page 1321 The Chaos of Victory......Page 1326 Economic Collapse: The Great Crash......Page 1328 Russia: The Union of Soviet Socialist Republic......Page 1331 Germany: The Rise of the Nazi Party......Page 1333 Japan: The Empire of the Rising Sun......Page 1335 Italy: Too Small to Be a Major Power......Page 1337 Blitzkrieg: A New Form of War......Page 1339 Barbarossa: The German Invasion of Russia......Page 1342 Tora, Tora, Tora: The Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor......Page 1343 The End of the Beginning: Midway and Stalingrad......Page 1344 The Economics of the Second World War......Page 1347 Going ``All In´´: Gambling on War in an Age of Catastrophe......Page 1351 Conclusion......Page 1352 References......Page 1353 Part VII: Innovation, Transportation, and Travel......Page 1357 Innovation in Historical Perspective......Page 1358 Introduction......Page 1359 The Role of ``Learning-by-Using´´......Page 1360 General Purpose Technology......Page 1363 Competition Between Old and New Technologies......Page 1364 The Axiom of Indispensability......Page 1365 Linear vs Chain-Linked Models......Page 1367 References......Page 1368 The Cliometric Study of Innovations......Page 1371 Quantifying Innovations......Page 1372 Skewed Distribution......Page 1377 Explaining Innovations......Page 1379 Technological Transfer......Page 1387 Future Research......Page 1389 References......Page 1390 Arts and Culture......Page 1393 Introduction......Page 1394 Problems with Data and Culture......Page 1395 Art Markets and Their Logic......Page 1399 Geography and Art......Page 1404 Capturing and Fueling Creativity......Page 1407 Conclusion......Page 1411 References......Page 1412 Railroads......Page 1416 Early Railroads......Page 1417 Trade and Improved Transportation......Page 1418 Rail Construction and Its Geography......Page 1419 Railroad Finance and Construction......Page 1428 Government Intervention and Inducements......Page 1432 Innovation and Productivity Change in American Railroads......Page 1435 The Social Savings of Railroads......Page 1437 Concluding Remarks......Page 1440 References......Page 1441 Clio on Speed......Page 1445 Introduction......Page 1446 The Transport Revolution......Page 1447 Transport Improvements, Market Integration, and Trade......Page 1450 Transport Improvements and Income Gains......Page 1452 Transport Improvements and External Effects......Page 1457 Persistence and Long-Run Impacts of Transport......Page 1459 Institutions and Transport Development......Page 1462 Public and Private Sector Involvement......Page 1465 Cross-References......Page 1467 References......Page 1468 Travel and Tourism......Page 1471 Introduction......Page 1472 Defining and Measuring Tourism......Page 1473 Research on the Economic History of Tourism......Page 1474 The Demand for Tourism......Page 1476 Methodological Approaches......Page 1477 Elasticity Estimates......Page 1479 The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth......Page 1481 The Economic History of Seaside Resorts......Page 1484 The Shift from British to Spanish Seaside Resorts......Page 1488 Economic History of Tourism in the United States......Page 1491 Data Sets Available......Page 1495 Implications of These Data......Page 1496 Explaining the Rise of Domestic Tourism......Page 1497 History of Tourism in Hawaii......Page 1498 Conclusion......Page 1504 References......Page 1505 Part VIII: Technique and Measurement......Page 1509 Statistical Inference......Page 1510 Introduction......Page 1511 Probability and Inference in Statistics......Page 1512 K. Pearson and G. U. Yule......Page 1514 R. A. Fisher......Page 1517 J. Neyman and E. S. Pearson......Page 1519 Bayesian Probability......Page 1522 Bayesian Inference......Page 1525 Inference in Econometrics......Page 1528 The Time Dimension......Page 1529 ``Clarification´´: Trygve Haavelmo......Page 1533 Alternatives......Page 1535 Inference for Cliometrics......Page 1536 The Bayesian Origins of Cliometric Inference......Page 1537 Fundamental Criticism: Rudolf Kalman......Page 1540 References......Page 1542 Recommended Reading......Page 1546 Trends, Cycles, and Structural Breaks in Cliometrics......Page 1548 Introduction......Page 1549 Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic History......Page 1550 Segmented Trend Models......Page 1552 Filters for Extracting Trends and Cycles......Page 1556 Filters and Structural Models......Page 1560 Model-Based Filters......Page 1562 Structural Trends and Cycles......Page 1563 Models with Correlated Components......Page 1565 Multivariate Extensions of Structural Models......Page 1567 Structural Breaks Across Series......Page 1569 Concluding Remarks......Page 1570 References......Page 1571 Path Dependence......Page 1574 The Meaning and Significance of Path Dependence......Page 1575 Technical Interrelatedness: The Analysis of Paul David......Page 1577 Increasing Returns: The Analysis of W. Brian Arthur......Page 1578 Other Analyses of Increasing Returns......Page 1579 The Analysis of Liebowitz and Margolis......Page 1580 Responses to the Skeptics......Page 1581 David´s Analysis......Page 1583 Liebowitz´s and Margolis´s Analysis......Page 1584 Kay´s Analysis......Page 1585 Britain´s Coal Cars......Page 1586 Videocassette Recording Systems......Page 1587 Information Technologies......Page 1588 Economic Geography......Page 1590 Institutional Change......Page 1591 Railway Track Gauge......Page 1592 Conclusion......Page 1594 References......Page 1595 Analytic Narratives......Page 1598 Introduction......Page 1599 The Five Studies of Analytic Narratives......Page 1601 Some Defining Characteristics of Analytic Narratives......Page 1605 Analytic Narratives from Military and Security Studies......Page 1609 Analytic Narratives and Deductive Explanation......Page 1616 The Role of Narration in Analytic Narratives......Page 1621 Conclusion......Page 1626 References......Page 1627 Spatial Modeling......Page 1630 Introduction......Page 1631 Actors......Page 1632 Distance......Page 1633 Spatial Randomness......Page 1634 Join-Count Statistics......Page 1635 Usage......Page 1637 Measures of Specialization......Page 1638 The Development of Spatial Modeling......Page 1639 History and First and Second Nature Geography......Page 1646 Homogeneous Versus Differentiated Goods......Page 1649 Common Versus Idiosyncratic Preferences......Page 1650 Exogenous and Endogenous Productivity Differences......Page 1651 Trade......Page 1652 Geographic Versus Economic Frictions......Page 1653 Knowledge Externalities and Diffusion......Page 1654 Migration Costs......Page 1655 Skills and Heterogeneity......Page 1656 Population and Skills......Page 1657 Equilibrium......Page 1658 Alternative Approaches......Page 1659 Cross-References......Page 1660 References......Page 1661 Historical Measures of Economic Output......Page 1664 Introduction......Page 1665 Part I: The Logic and Early History of National Income and Output Estimation......Page 1667 Part II: Historical Antecedents......Page 1672 Part III: US Estimates of Output and Income Prior to the Second Half of the Twentieth Century......Page 1674 References......Page 1684 The Census of Manufactures: An Overview......Page 1687 Introduction......Page 1688 Early Nineteenth Century COMs......Page 1690 Late Ninetieth Century COMs......Page 1691 Atack-Bateman-Weiss Sample......Page 1692 Value for Understanding the Development of the American Economy......Page 1693 Great Depression COMs......Page 1695 Vickers-Ziebarth Sample......Page 1700 Value for Understanding Business Cycles......Page 1702 Background on the Modern COM Instrument......Page 1704 Research from the Modern COM......Page 1705 Directions for Future Work......Page 1706 References......Page 1707 Decolonizing with Data......Page 1711 Introduction......Page 1712 Fortunes, Reversed and Revised......Page 1714 Deep Roots of Divergent Development......Page 1717 The Slave Trades: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies......Page 1719 Colonialism and Independence......Page 1724 Decolonizing with Data......Page 1728 References......Page 1731 Index......Page 1736