The Geopolitics of Iran

Description

This book assesses Iran’s role in contemporary geopolitics. In particular, it examines three main intertwining circles: Iran’s development and political challenges, its relationships with neighbouring countries, as well as its relations with the major global powers — China, the European Union, Russia, and the United States. With contributions from over 20 authors, the book spans such critical aspects of contemporary geopolitics as modern history, natural resources, the economy, the social-political context, and strategic thinking. Particular focus is placed on Iran’s relations with its neighbours - Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Pakistan, and the Persian Gulf States. Furthermore, the book offers both a bilateral and multilateral dimension on how nuclear sanctions imposed on Iran have impacted its strategic planning, from the economic and military perspectives. Foreword Acknowledgements Contents Notes on Contributors List of Figures List of Tables Introduction 1 Why Is Geopolitics of Iran a Matter of Importance? 2 Structure of the Book Framing the Debate Neighbors and Rivals: Iran and Great Power Diplomacy 1 Introduction 2 Iran’s Early History: The Achaemenid Empire and Its Successors 3 The Safavids and the Ottoman Threat 4 Iran Between Russia and Britain, 1722–1914 5 From World War I to the Cold War 6 Iran’s Islamic Revolution 7 Conclusion References The Evolution of Iran’s Foreign Policy: International Balancing Act 1 Introduction 2 The Weight of Loses 3 Valued Independence 4 Challenged Independence 5 The Shift 6 The Spoiler 7 Conclusion References Outlays of Iran’s Hegemonic-Hybridized Political System 1 Introduction 2 The Conflicting Narratives on Iran 3 The Construction of Political Iran 4 The Apparent Hybridity of the Iranian Political System 5 Conclusion Bibliography Beating the (White) House: How a “Rogue” Iran Broke Free from the “Axis of Evil” and Became an Antifragile State 1 Framing the Issue: Iran and the JCPOA 2 On Uncertainty: Iran, the United States and the Variations in Foreign Policy Discourse 3 Crossing the Rubicon: The Military in Post-Revolution Iran and the Dawn of Antifragility 3.1 Ideology: Harnessing Revolution and Conflict Towards Antifragility 3.2 Ingenuity: Fighting Obsolescence with Specialization 3.3 Asymmetry: The Sine Qua Non Condition of Antifragility 4 Iranian Antifragility at a Crossroads: From Beating the House to Rewriting the Rules of the Game? Bibliography The International Financial Institutions: An Ajar Door to the External Financing of Iran 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 3 Iran as a Shareholder of International Financial Institutions 4 Iran as a Borrower of International Financial Institutions 5 Iran’s Borrowing from International Financial Institutions Looking Forward 6 Concluding Remarks, Limitations, and Avenues for Further Research References Iran and the Major Powers The U.S. Factor in Iran’s Geostrategic and Foreign Policy Calculations 1 Introduction 2 Iran’s Geostrategic Decision-Making Process 3 The U.S. Role in Iran’s Geostrategic Decision-Making Calculus 4 Where Interests Align: Iran–U.S. Cooperation in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Fight Against Terrorism in the Levant 4.1 Afghanistan 4.2 Iraq 4.3 Fight Against Terrorism in the Levant 4.4 Summary 5 Geostrategic Opportunities and Consequences of the 2015 Nuclear Deal 6 Conclusion: Trajectory of Iran–U.S. Relations in the Post-Trump and Rouhani Era References Iran’s Understanding of Strategic Stability: In the Light of Relations with the U.S. in the Middle East 1 Introduction 2 Conceptual Framework: Geographical Centrality and Identical Values 3 Strategic Stability in Historical Perspective 4 Strategic Stability in the Light of Containment and Deterrence 5 Nuclear Program and Strategic Stability 6 Approaches to Strategic Stability 7 Conclusion References Controversial Efficiency? The Experience of the U.S. Sanctions Against Iran 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 3 Historical Perspective 4 Assessing Washington’s Demands and Expectations 5 The Damage That the Sanctions Regimes Have Caused to the Reconciliation Process 5.1 Violation of the Non-proliferation Regime 5.2 Unrest in Iran and the Consolidation of Power 5.3 The Widening Gap Between Washington and Tehran 5.4 Escalating Tensions in the Middle East 6 Damage to the Iranian Economy 7 Conclusion Bibliography Iran–China Relations: A Game Changer in the Eastern World 1 Introduction 2 Why the Middle East? 3 Iran and China Relations: A Game Changer for the Middle East 4 Reasons to Look East 5 Energy Prevalence in the Bilateral Ties 6 The Political Dimension of the Partnership 7 The Security Dimension of the Partnership 8 Bilateral Relations Perspectives 9 COVID-19 Impact 10 Conclusion Bibliography Iran and Russia Relations: Conceptions of Cooperations 1 Introduction 2 Russia in Iranian Politics: Ally or Rival? 3 Iran and Russia in the Middle East: (Dis)Integration of Interests 4 Conclusion Bibliography EU–Iran Relations: Deciphering the Limits of Strategic Engagement 1 Introduction 2 Dynamics of European Engagement with the Islamic Republic of Iran 3 Engagement—Heterarchy and the RSCT 4 Containment—Balancing EU and U.S. Interests 5 Conclusion Bibliography Iran and the EU: The Role of Geostrategic Factors in the Post-JCPOA Era 1 Introduction 2 Specific Factors in Iran–EU Relations 2.1 The Iran Nuclear Dossier 2.2 Iran–EU Economic Relations 3 Geopolitical Components 3.1 Energy 3.2 Regional Matters 4 Conclusion Bibliography Iran and Neighbourhood Iran–UAE Relations and Disputes Over the Sovereignty of Abu Musa and Tunbs 1 Introduction 2 Historical Background of the Three Islands 3 Iran’s Ownership Over the Three Islands in the Pahlavi Era 4 Geopolitical Significance: Islands’ Role in Survival of Islamic Republic of Iran 5 Messages and Ambitions: Iran’s Approach Toward the Three Islands 6 Exploratory Analysis: Assessing the Driving Factors Behind This Decision 7 Conclusion Bibliography Shia Geopolitics or Religious Tourism? Political Convergence of Iran and Iraq in the Light of Arbaeen Pilgrimage 1 Introduction 2 Shia Geopolitics: A Dangerous Reality or a Misinterpretation Leading to Shia-Phobia? 3 Hostility Versus Hospitality: History of Iran and Iraq Relations 4 Religious Tourism in Islam: A Cultural Background 5 Geopolitical Pilgrimage: Implications of Arbaeen Walk to the World’s Politics 6 Methodology 7 Data Analysis and Discussion 8 Conclusion: Political Convergence and Shia Geopolitics Bibliography De-Coding Fabric of Iran-Israeli Hostility in the Regional Context 1 Introduction 2 Changing Global and Regional Context 2.1 Regional Transformation 3 Enemy Image 3.1 Israel as an Ideological Adversary 3.2 Iran and the Existential Threat 4 Nuclear Issue for Iran and Israel 5 Israeli–Palestinian Conflict 6 Syria and Lebanon as a Key Area for Iran’s Security 7 The Role of the United States in the Iranian-Israeli Confrontation 8 Conclusion Bibliography Iran and Saudi Arabia: A Realpolitik? 1 Introduction 1.1 History of the Shiism-Sunni Dichotomy: Iran and Saudi Arabia 1.2 Religious Legitimacy and Islam in the Changing Geopolitical Landscape 2 Background and Significance 2.1 Literature Review 2.2 Concept of Soft Power: Religion 3 The Iranian–Saudi Arabian Struggle 3.1 Sectarian Differences and Struggle for Dominance in the Region 4 Developments in Iran 4.1 Broad-Based Approach in the Export of Shiism and Changing Domestic Attitudes Towards Saudi Arabia 4.2 COVID-19 and the Regime: Strengthening or Threatening? 5 Developments in Saudi Arabia 5.1 Functionalities of Wahhabism and its Transformation 5.2 Reorientation of Policies and Goals: The Rise of Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) and Its Implications 6 Proxy Conflicts: External Developments 6.1 The Yemeni Variable: The Houthi Movement 6.2 The Israeli Variable 6.3 The Lebanese Variable: Hezbollah 6.4 The Syrian Variable 7 Assessment: Constructing a Peace Agreement and Its Feasibility 8 Conclusion Bibliography Iran’s National Security and Afghanistan Politics 1 Introduction 2 Setting the Stage 2.1 Dimensions of Study 2.2 Research Obstacles 3 The “first Afghan Civil War” (1979–1989) 4 The “Second Afghan Civil War” (1990–1996) 5 The “Third Civil War”: The Taliban Period (1996–2001) 6 The “Fourth Afghan Civil War”: The Democratic Regime (2001–2020) 6.1 The International and Regional Front 7 Conclusion Bibliography Not All Plain Sailing: The Highs and Lows of Iran’s Scramble for the Horn of Africa 1 Introduction 2 The Horn of Africa: Defining the Region and Its Inherent Value 3 The Dimensions of Iran’s Presence in the Region 4 Taking the Broader View: Before the Revolution 5 Early Post-1979 Revolutionary Connections 6 Raising the Stakes 7 Sparking Mayhem: Ahmadinejad’s Africa Push 8 Widening the Gulf 9 Conclusion: It Is Not All Gloom and Doom References Iran-India Relations Before and After the U.S. Withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal and the Consequent Sanctions 1 Introduction 2 The Historical Setting 3 Bilateral Relations: Energy and Else 4 The Regional Environment: Connectivity 5 On the Global Agenda: Nuclear Programs: Both Ways 6 Conclusion Bibliography New Development of Turkey-Iran Relations from the Perspective of Eurasianism 1 Introduction 2 “Eurasianism” in Russia: From Classical Eurasianism to Neo-Euraisanism 3 “Eurasianism” in Turkey: Kemalist Eurasianism with Turkish Characteristics 4 Turkey-Iran Relations in History 5 Turkey-Iran Relations from the Perspective of Eurasianism 6 Conclusion Bibliography The Impact of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict on the Middle East Region: Iran’s Policy of Strategic Retreat and the Dangers of a New Geopolitical Game in the Caucasus 1 Introduction 2 Background 2.1 Colonial Legacies: Geopolitical Conflict of Interests at the Roots of the Conflict 2.2 The Anatomy of the Current Conflict: 1988 to 2020 3 Major Players in the Conflict 3.1 Regional Players 3.2 Extra-Regional Players 4 Iran’s Interests in the Caucasus 5 Iran’s Position During the Conflict 5.1 Signalling to Its Domestic vs. International Audience 5.2 Iran’s Diplomatic and Political Engagements 5.3 Iran’s Military Manoeuvres During the Conflict 6 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: New Transnational and International Dimensions 6.1 New Reality on Ground Level: The Risk of Ethno-Nationalist Spill-Over and the Presence of Foreign Fighters 6.2 Iran’s Strategy: Tactical Retreat to Ensure Maximum Damage Control at the Cost of Influence in the Caucasus 6.3 Turkey’s Blow to Iran’s Economic and Energy Policy and the Role of China’s Belt and Road Initiative 7 Conclusion Bibliography Index