The Logic of Intelligence Analysis: Why Hypothesis Testing Matters

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Cover Half Title Book Title Copyright Table of Contents List of illustrations Tables Boxes Preface: revisiting an old problem—new concerns, new remedies Notes Bibliography 1 Maybe it’s time for something different An insider’s perspective on the problem The logic of intelligence analysis: back to basics Some special challenges for alternative hypothesis testing The case for alternative methodology testing Chances for change? Notes Bibliography 2 Strengthening intelligence threat analysis Alternative analysis Falling short of potential Accepting the conventional wisdom Enhanced analytic techniques Technique one: prudently stretch analytic imagination by testing many hypotheses Technique two: independently check source vetting to better detect deception Technique three: systematically assess missing data to better determine validity and detect foreign denial Technique four: make a common sense start with a zero-based review of a dominant view’s evidence and reasoning Putting the techniques together: a coherent process to assess and predict threats Notes Bibliography 3 Using enhanced analytic techniques for threat analysis: a case study illustration A hypothetical case study to show how enhanced analytic techniques can be used The zero-based review in the hypothetical scenario A dominant view’s data support: what a zero-based review can show The new inconsistency test in the hypothetical scenario The missing data test in the hypothetical scenario Taking it from here Notes Bibliography 4 I got algorithm: can there be a Nate Silver in intelligence? Eight challenges for statistical probability analysis as a threat analysis tool Judging the prospects for statistical probability analysis as a threat analysis tool The heart of the matter: improving intelligence prediction Are practical steps enough to improve prediction or is computer help needed? Notes Bibliography Index