The Future European Energy System: Renewable Energy, Flexibility Options And Technological Progress

Description

This open access book analyzes the transition toward a low-carbon energy system in Europe under the aspects of flexibility and technological progress. By covering the main energy sectors – including the industry, residential, tertiary and transport sector as well as the heating and electricity sector – the analysis assesses flexibility requirements in a cross-sectoral energy system with high shares of renewable energies. The contributing authors – all European energy experts – apply models and tools from various research fields, including techno-economic learning, fundamental energy system modeling, and environmental and social life cycle as well as health impact assessment, to develop an innovative and comprehensive energy models system (EMS). Moreover, the contributions examine renewable penetrations and their contributions to climate change mitigation, and the impacts of available technologies on the energy system. Given its scope, the book appeals to researchers studying energy systems and markets, professionals and policymakers of the energy industry and readers interested in the transformation to a low-carbon energy system in Europe. Foreword......Page 5 Acknowledgments......Page 7 Contents......Page 9 About the Editors......Page 11 Contributors......Page 12 List of Figures......Page 15 List of Tables......Page 26 Part IIntroduction, Scenario Description and Model Coupling Approach......Page 29 1 Introduction......Page 30 Reference......Page 34 2.1 Introduction......Page 35 2.2 Scenario Definition and General Drivers......Page 36 2.3 Socio-Technical Scenario Framework......Page 38 2.5 Centralized versus Decentralized High Renewable Scenario (High-RES)......Page 41 2.5.1 Centralized High-RES Scenario......Page 43 2.5.2 Decentralized High-RES Scenario......Page 47 2.6 Conclusions......Page 49 References......Page 50 3.1 Introduction......Page 52 3.2 Description of Applied Models......Page 53 3.2.1 ELTRAMOD......Page 55 3.2.2 TIMES-Heat-EU......Page 56 3.2.3 PowerACE......Page 58 3.2.4 FORECAST......Page 60 3.2.5 eLOAD......Page 62 3.2.6 ASTRA......Page 63 3.2.7 TE3......Page 65 3.2.8 eLCA and sLCA......Page 67 3.2.9 πESA......Page 68 3.3 REFLEX Energy Models System......Page 70 References......Page 74 Part IITechnological Progress......Page 77 4.1.1 History and Concept......Page 78 4.1.2 Key Applications of Experience Curves......Page 80 4.1.3 Key Issues and Drawbacks of Experience Curves......Page 82 4.2 Data Collection and Derivation of Experience Curves......Page 83 4.2.3 Deriving Experience Curve Parameters......Page 84 4.3 Experience Curves in Energy System Models......Page 85 4.3.2 Issues with Implementation of Experience Curves in Energy Models......Page 86 4.3.3 Description of Energy Models with Implemented Experience Curves......Page 87 4.4 State-of-the-Art Experience Curves and Modeling Results......Page 89 4.4.1 Overview of State-of-the-Art Experience Curves......Page 90 4.4.2 Deployments and Cost Developments of Relevant Technologies......Page 91 4.5.1 Methodological Issues......Page 92 4.5.2 Model Implementation Issues......Page 93 References......Page 94 5.1.1 Motivation......Page 97 5.1.2 Related Research and Research Question......Page 98 5.2.1 The TE3 Model and Implementation of Experience Curves......Page 99 5.2.2 Framework of the Two Analyzed Scenarios for the Main Non-European Car Markets......Page 100 5.3.1 Effects on Cumulative Battery Capacity and Battery Costs......Page 104 5.3.2 Development of the Car Stock for the Four Main Markets in the Mod-RES and High-RES Scenario......Page 105 5.3.3 Critical Review and Limitations......Page 107 References......Page 108 Part IIIDemand Side Flexibility and the Role of Disruptive Technologies......Page 111 6 Future Energy Demand Developments and Demand Side Flexibility in a Decarbonized Centralized Energy System......Page 112 6.1 Introduction......Page 113 6.3 Future Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions......Page 114 6.3.1 Decarbonizing the Transport Sector......Page 117 6.3.2 Decarbonizing the Residential and Tertiary Sector......Page 121 6.3.3 Decarbonizing the Industry Sector......Page 124 6.4 The Future Need for Demand Side Flexibility......Page 127 6.5 Conclusions......Page 131 References......Page 132 7.1 Introduction......Page 135 7.1.1 Strategies for Decarbonizing Transport......Page 136 7.1.2 Technologies for Decarbonizing Industry......Page 137 7.1.3 Focus of this Study: Disruptive Technologies with Demand Side Flexibility......Page 138 7.2.2 Battery Electric Vehicles......Page 139 7.2.3 Hydrogen Electrolysis......Page 140 7.3.1 Scenario Assumptions for High-RES Decentralized......Page 141 7.3.2 Model Coupling Approach......Page 142 7.3.3 Methods Used for Technology Diffusion......Page 143 7.4.1 Installed Battery Capacity......Page 144 7.4.2 Vehicle Fleet Technology Composition and Resulting Energy Demand......Page 145 7.5 Impacts of Disruptive Technologies on Demand Side Flexibility......Page 147 7.6 Discussion and Conclusions......Page 152 References......Page 154 8.1.1 Overview of Demand Side Flexibility Markets......Page 157 8.1.2 Overview of Tertiary Sector and Potential Applications, Regulatory Environment......Page 158 8.2.2 Empirical Survey Introduction......Page 160 8.3.1 Participation Interest in DSM......Page 163 8.3.2 Available Technologies......Page 165 8.3.3 Derived Flexibility Potentials (S-Curve)......Page 168 8.3.4 Lessons Learned and Issues Identified for Modelers......Page 170 References......Page 171 9.1 Introduction......Page 174 9.2.1 Technical Characteristics of DSM......Page 176 9.2.2 Activation and Initialization Costs of DSM......Page 179 9.3.1 Framework of the Analysis......Page 184 9.3.2 Impact of DSM on the Operation of Conventional Power Plants and Pump Storage Plants......Page 186 9.3.3 Impact of DSM on Imports and Exports......Page 189 9.4 Conclusions......Page 190 References......Page 191 Part IVFlexibility Options in the Electricity and Heating Sector......Page 193 10.1 Introduction......Page 194 10.2 Data Input and Model Coupling......Page 196 10.3.1 Sector Coupling Technologies......Page 199 10.3.2 Power Plant Mix......Page 201 10.3.3 Storages......Page 203 10.4.1 Impact of Limited DSM Potential and Reduced Battery Investment Costs on the Storage Value in the Electricity Market......Page 205 10.4.2 Impact of Higher Shares of Renewable Energy Sources......Page 208 10.5 Levelized Costs of Electricity and CO2 Abatement Costs......Page 210 10.6 Discussion and Conclusion......Page 212 References......Page 213 11.1 The European Debate on Electricity Market Design......Page 216 11.2 Research Design......Page 218 11.3 Development of the Conventional Generation Capacities and Wholesale Electricity Prices......Page 220 11.3.1 Mod-RES Scenario......Page 228 11.3.2 High-RES Decentralized Scenario......Page 229 11.4 Impact on Generation Adequacy......Page 230 11.5 Summary and Conclusions......Page 231 References......Page 234 12.1 Introduction......Page 236 12.2 TIMES-Heat-EU Model......Page 237 12.3 Developments in the District Heating Sector......Page 239 12.3.1 Scenario Results......Page 240 12.3.2 CO2 Emissions in the Heating Sector......Page 245 12.3.3 Sensitivity Analysis......Page 246 12.4 Conclusion......Page 248 References......Page 250 Part VAnalysis of the Environmental and Socio-Impacts beyond the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets......Page 252 13.1 Introduction......Page 253 13.2 Developing the Model Coupling Approach to Identify Environmental Trade-Offs......Page 255 13.2.1 Describing Relevant Input Parameters for the LCA Model in Context of the REFLEX Scenarios......Page 256 13.2.2 Coupling the Results of ELTRAMOD and the LCA Model to Determine Policy Implications......Page 257 13.3 Unintended Environmental Consequences of the European Low-Carbon Electricity System......Page 259 13.3.1 Environmental Impacts at Local Scale and the Challenges for European Member States......Page 260 13.3.2 Resource Depletion in REFLEX Mitigation Scenarios as a Backdrop of Global Trade Uncertainty......Page 262 13.4 Conclusions and Policy Implications......Page 266 References......Page 268 14.1 Introduction......Page 272 14.2.1 Background to the SOCA Add-on for Social Life Cycle Assessment......Page 274 14.2.2 Establishing the Life Cycle Model for Social Assessment......Page 275 14.2.4 Calculation Method......Page 278 14.3 Results......Page 280 14.4 Concluding Discussion and Policy Implications......Page 286 References......Page 287 15.1 Introduction......Page 289 15.2 Description of the Method......Page 290 15.2.1 Emission Scenarios......Page 291 15.2.2 Air Quality Modeling......Page 294 15.2.3 Health Impacts and External Costs......Page 295 15.3 Results......Page 296 15.3.1 Summary and Conclusions......Page 300 References......Page 302 Part VIConcluding Remarks......Page 304 16.1 Summary......Page 305 16.1.1 Electricity Sector......Page 306 16.1.2 Demand Side Sectors......Page 307 16.1.3 Environmental Impacts......Page 308 16.2.1 Electricity Sector......Page 309 16.2.2 Industry Sector......Page 312 16.2.3 Transport Sector......Page 313 16.2.4 Heating Sector......Page 316 16.2.5 Environmental, Social Life Cycle and Health Impact Assessment......Page 318 16.3 Further Aspects and Outlook......Page 319 References......Page 320