Understanding Probability, 3rd Edition

Description

Understanding Probability is a unique and stimulating approach to a first course in probability. The first part of the book demystifies probability and uses many wonderful probability applications from everyday life to help the reader develop a feel for probabilities. The second part, covering a wide range of topics, teaches clearly and simply the basics of probability. This fully revised third edition has been packed with even more exercises and examples and it includes new sections on Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte-Carlo simulation, hitting probabilities in random walks and Brownian motion, and a new chapter on continuous-time Markov chains with applications. Here you will find all the material taught in an introductory probability course. The first part of the book, with its easy-going style, can be read by anybody with a reasonable background in high school mathematics. The second part of the book requires a basic course in calculus.FeaturesFascinating probability problems (Monty Hall, birthday surprise, lottery winners and more) explained in a way that anyone can understand The author writes with wit and clarity, explaining mathematics in a unique informal style This third edition now covers Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte-Carlo simulation, Brownian motion and moreTable of ContentsPrefaceIntroductionPart I. Probability in Action:1. Probability questions2. The law of large numbers and simulation3. Probabilities in everyday life4. Rare events and lotteries5. Probability and statistics6. Chance trees and Bayes' rulePart II. Essentials of Probability:7. Foundations of probability theory8. Conditional probability and Bayes9. Basic rules for discrete random variables10. Continuous random variables11. Jointly distributed random variables12. Multivariate normal distribution13. Conditioning by random variables14. Generating functions15. Discrete-time Markov chains16. Continuous-time Markov chainsAppendixCounting methods and exRecommended readingAnswers to odd-numbered problemsBibliographyIndex.