The Great Power Competition Volume 2: Contagion Effect: Strategic Competition in the COVID-19 Era

Description

Even before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central Region faced numerous obstacles to building a stable and prosperous future.  The region, which encompasses the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia, has been plagued by economic and political uncertainty amidst dramatic shifts in the global power structure.  With the pandemic now exacerbating the volatility in this already fragile region, the U.S.'s strategic objectives are rife for re-examination. A complicated stew of factors such as weakening of established governance systems, the emboldening of extremist individuals and groups through advances in digital technology, the humanitarian crises in Afghanistan and Syria, and the intensification of the great power competition with China and Russia are creating a fertile environment for the growth of violent extremist organizations (VEOs).  Such organizations take advantage of vulnerable, aggrieved, and traumatized populations to fuel radicalization, recruitment, and unrest, which further undermine stability and the potential for peace and prosperity. While it is still early to fully understand how the ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic will impact U.S. policy, this book provides a timely analysis of relevant dynamics such as popular radicalization, digital information ecosystems, networks of influence, and new capabilities to recognize and prepare for other such black swan events in the region. Preface Acknowledgements Contents Editors and Contributors From the Great Power Competition to Great Power Cooperation: Strategic Lessons from a Pandemic Introduction How the Pandemic Has Altered the Geo-Strategic Landscape in CASA - Revealed Interconnectedness and Interdependence Increased Vulnerability to Misinformation in the COVID-19 Era Recommendations for U.S. Strategic Shifts in a Post-Pandemic CASA Region New Silk Road Initiative Investment in Afghanistan Cooperation with Other Regional Powers Cooperation Over Competition with China in Afghanistan China–U.S. Partnerships Conclusion References Iran and the United States: The Way Forward Introduction The Military Dimension US–Iran Relations—the Way Forward References Who Are the Great Powers in 2021? Introduction The United States China and Russia …and India? Regional Power Competition Iran Pakistan Saudi Arabia Qatar United Arab Emirates (UAE) Israel Jordan Exploiting Regional Friction Points and Proxy Fights Yemen Other Players in the Region Oman Bahrain Kuwait The Global Rebalance References Exploiting Seams and Gaps in the Central Asia and South Asia Region: A Framework for Analysis Introduction Seven Days in March 2021: The Suez Canal Crisis, the Greater Indian Ocean Region, and CASA The Seams and Gaps Analytical Framework Geographic and Cognitive Seams: Intra-Ocean Trade Routes and the CASA Region Diplomatic, Economic, Institutional, and Cognitive: China’s Belt and Road Initiative Conclusions: Calibration and Consistency to Close Seams and Gaps References Building Trust and Advancing U.S. Geoeconomic Strength Through Public–Private Partnership Stakeholder Capitalism Introduction Shifting to Stakeholder Capitalism Over State or Shareholder Capitalism State, Business, and Human Security Re-aligning State Security in the Post-COVID-19 Era of the GPC The Emergence of Global Interdependence of State Security Opportunities for Growth at Home and Abroad Interdependence of Critical Infrastructure Business Security and Access to Capital China and the U.S.—Rivals and Partners The Prescription Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) Medical PPPs Education PPPs Supply Chain PPPs Industrial Policy and the U.S. Defense Industry Findings References Russia Views Central Asia/South Asia-The Immediate Threat and Longer-Term Opportunity Introduction Russia Evaluates Her Position from Continuities of Geography, Enemy and Historic Military and Ethnic Cultural Memory Russia in Central Asia and the South Caucasus States (CASC) and Beyond Conclusion References Anti-Democratic Malign Influence in the Time of COVID-19 Introduction The Strategic Logic of Anti-Democratic Malign Influence Social Trust Trust in Experts/Authorities Trust in Democratic Institutions and Processes Psychosocial & Strategic Effects Exploiting Extant Factors and Conditions Global Democratic Recession Looming Towards Crisis Pandemic Propaganda and Disinformation A Perfect Storm for Anti-Democratic Malign Influence Policy Implications Conclusion References COVID, Democratic Fallout Versus New National Humiliation: China’s Perception and Strategy in the Middle East The Fallout of COVID and the Marketplace of Democracy Beijing’s Perception of Fear and Strongman Authoritarian Power Beijing’s Middle East Calculation: Navigating the Status Quo Turkey Egypt India Strategic Alliance: Shifting Realpolitik Trajectory A Short-, Medium- and Long-Term Projection Short Term (2020 to 2025) Medium Term (2025 to 2035) Long Term (2035 to 2045) Conclusion: Confronting the Future References Russia’s Energy Ambitions in the Middle East Introduction Mitigating Competition Attracting Investment Creating Political Leverage Russian Energy Companies and the Kremlin The Fall and Raise of the OPEC+ Conclusion References The COVID-19 Pandemic: Gray Rhinos, Complexity, Prediction, and National Security Introduction On Gray Rhinos The COVID-19 Pandemic Gray Rhino Prediction The COVID-19 Pandemic as a Complex System Modeling Gray Rhino Complex Systems Requirements Theoretical Requirements Methodological Requirements Data Requirements Talent Requirements Need for a National Capability References The Russo-Persian Cooperation in the Syrian Civil War: A New Battleground in the Great Power Competition Introduction Questions Statement of Methods Theoretical Framework Syrian Civil War, A New Indication in Russia-Iran Relation Iran’s Involvement in Syria Russia and Her Involvement in Syria The Outcome and Future of Russo-Persian Cooperation in Syria Conclusion References Radicalization to Violent Extremism: A Creeping Crisis, an Examination Through the PAR Model Introduction Creeping Crisis Understanding Radicalization Models of Radicalization Actor Network Theory Lens Discussion Pressure and Release (PAR) Model The Progression of Vulnerability Conclusion References Great Power Competition in the Digital Age Introduction First, the “Intangible” Challenge Second, the More “Tangible” Challenge Conclusion Cognitive Security and Emotional Warfare: The Science and Practice for Understanding, Analyzing and Preventing the Spread of Violent Extremism in the CENTCOM AOR Background Cognitive Versus Emotional Paradigm in Terrorism and Warfare: A Brief Historical and Scientific Insight The Human Domain Matrix (HDM): The Science and Practice of Conflict Engagement Interdisciplinary Science of the Human Domain Matrix Weaponizing the Mind: From Trauma to Terrorism Conclusion References Caring for the Whole Soldier in the Wake of COVID-19 Introduction The Effects of COVID-19 on the U.S. Military to Date A Proposal for Revising the Two-Dimensional Model of the Whole Soldier Integrating Each Aspect of Spirituality into Care for the Whole Soldier Spirituality Assessments and Care for the Whole Soldier Spiritual Practices for Soldiers’ Daily Lives Captain Harold Earls Corporal Jonathon Grajales Conclusion References Africa’s Strategic Pivots: From China’s Rise to Tradeoff Between Battling Covid-19 and Violent Extremism Introduction Why Is this Happening? Rise of Covid-19 A Strategic Pivot Why the Slow Spread Initially? Other Possible Reasons African Youth Climate Lower Population Density Less Travel Excellent Masks Effective Cross-Border Cooperation Indirect Protection from Other Treatments A Viral Mutation Operational Success The Initial Logic of a Lockdown Rwanda Success African Success Story Spun into Action African Ingenuity Sign of Success Ethiopia Role Model Community Activism Making Kenyon Masks Africa’s Own Solutions Relentless Pandemic and Rising Concerns Another Strategic Pivot Double Whammy Fertile Ground for Terrorists Services Militaries Squeezed on All Sides Violent Attacks African Governments Losing Ground Redeploying Coronavirus Pandemic References Counter Intuitiveness of Influence Science, Social Judgment Theory, and Strategic Messaging in Great Power Competition Introduction Counter-Intuitiveness of Influence Science The Science of Influence Social Judgement Theory Applied Message Development Information Activities in the Great Power Competition Conceptual Influence Model Influence and Rapport China China’s Overt Information Initiatives China’s COVID Diplomacy Media Expansion and Acquisition Information Advantage Gained Through Economic Leverage U.S. Messaging Russia Conclusions Summary References