Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics

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Why does the United States need European allies, and why is it getting more difficult for those allies to partner with Washington in standing up to China, pushing back against Russia, and pursuing other common interests around the world? This book addresses the economic, demographic, political, and military trends that are fundamentally upending the ability and willingness of European allies to work with Washington. Brexit and its impact on Britain’s economy and its military, Germany’s seemingly relentless economic and political rise, France’s continuing economic malaise, Italy’s aging population and its withdrawal from major overseas operations, and Poland’s demographic decline and single-minded obsession with Russia will combine to make partnership with Washington nearly impossible. In short, the constellation of allies and partners the United States has relied on since 9/11 will look very different a decade from now. How should Washington respond? It doesn’t hold all the cards, but this book offers an array of practical recommendations for American leaders. By leveraging these proposals, U.S. policy-makers can avoid the worst-case scenarios and make the most of limited opportunities. Contents List of Figures List of Tables Preface and Acknowledgments About the Author Prologue One. Introduction The Enduring Value of Europe Outlines of the Realignment The Sources of State Power—Economics, Demographics, and Ideas The Roots of America’s Partnership with Europe Realignment’s Implications for Washington The Way Ahead Two. Brexit, Austerity, and the Demise of the Special Relationship June 23, 2016 Brexit’s Impact on the UK Defense Budget Beyond (and before) Brexit Do Diminished Capabilities Mean a Diminished Security Horizon? *A Not-So-Special Relationship? Three. Germany’s Hegemonic Role in Europe Germany as Europe’s Economic Hegemon Germany as Europe’s Diplomatic Hegemon? Germany as Europe’s Diminutive Military Power The Will to Do More? America and a New European Hegemon Four. France and the Incomplete Revolution Political Revolution An Economic Revolution to Match? Implications for French Security France and the United States: A New Special Relationship? Five. The Fall of Italy Italy’s Economic Malaise and the Rise of the Populists Italy and the Sovereign Debt Crisis Italy and the Migration Crisis of 2015 The Demise of the Italian Political Mainstream The Impact of Austerity on Italian National Security Washington’s Approach to an Ally in Decline Six. Poland as Europe’s Economic (and Military) Tiger? Europe’s Economic Tiger? Transforming Economic Strength into Hard Power Defense Acquisitions Defense Planning Is Poland’s Trajectory Sustainable? America’s Future Relationship with an Increasingly Lethargic Tiger Seven. The American Response The Strategic and Geopolitical Environment of the Next Decade What Does Washington Want of Its Allies? U.S. Policy Tools Expand Transatlantic Free Trade Expand National Security Information Sharing Take Interim Steps to Fill the Capabilities Gap Build German Willpower by Relying on R2P Explain the Requirement Strengthen French Capabilities by Emphasizing Sovereignty Leverage Italy’s Desire for Prestige Use Force Posture to Build the Future German-U.S. Military Relationship Embrace Divisions of Labor Rely on Multilateral, Intergovernmental Frameworks Negotiate a New Burden-Sharing Bargain Begin Procurement Programs by Thinking Interoperability Get Out of the Way of European Defense Integration Eight. Conclusion Bibliography Index