A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities

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Title Page; Copyright Page; INTRODUCTORY NOTE; Table of Contents; A PHILOSOPHICAL ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES.; CHAPTER I. -- INTRODUCTION.; CHAPTER II. -- CONCERNING PROBABILITY.; CHAPTER III. -- THE GENERAL PRINCIPLES OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES.; CHAPTER IV. -- CONCERNING NOPE.; CHAPTER V. -- CONCERNING THE ANALYTICAL METHODS OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES.; PART II. -- APPLICATIONS OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES.; CHAPTER VI. -- GAMES OF CHANCE; CHAPTER VII. -- CONCERNING THE UNKNOWN INEQUALITIES WHICH MAY EXIST AMONG CHANCES WHICH ARE SUPPOSED EQUAL.;A classic of science, this famous essay by "the Newton of France" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences. Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory "to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability." Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application of probability to games of chance, physics, reliability. of witnesses, astronomy, insurance, democratic government and many other areas. General readers will find it an exhilarating experience to follow Laplace's nontechnical application of mathematical techniques to the appraisal, solution and/or prediction of the outcome of many types of problems. Skilled mathematicians, too, will enjoy and benefit from seeing how one of the immortals of science expressed so many complex ideas in such simple terms. Title Page Copyright Page INTRODUCTORY NOTE Table of Contents A PHILOSOPHICAL ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES. CHAPTER I. -- INTRODUCTION. CHAPTER II. -- CONCERNING PROBABILITY. CHAPTER III. -- THE GENERAL PRINCIPLES OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES. CHAPTER IV. -- CONCERNING NOPE. CHAPTER V. -- CONCERNING THE ANALYTICAL METHODS OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES. PART II. -- APPLICATIONS OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES. CHAPTER VI. -- GAMES OF CHANCE CHAPTER VII. -- CONCERNING THE UNKNOWN INEQUALITIES WHICH MAY EXIST AMONG CHANCES WHICH ARE SUPPOSED EQUAL. CHAPTER VIII. -- CONCERNING THE LAWS OF PROBABILITY WHICH RESULT FROM THE INDEFINITE MULTIPLICA TION OF EVENTS. CHAPTER IX. -- THE APPLICATION OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES TO NATURAL PHILOSOPHY. CHAPTER X. -- APPLICATION OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES TO THE MORAL SCIENCES. CHAPTER XI. -- CONCERNING THE PROBABILITIES OF TESTIMONIES. CHAPTER XII. -- CONCERNING THE SELECTIONS AND THE DECISIONS OF ASSEMBLIES. CHAPTER XIII. -- CONCERNING THE PROBABILITY OF THE JUDGMENTS OF TRIBUNALS. CHAPTER XIV. -- CONCERNING TABLES OF MORTALITY, AND OF MEAN DURATIONS OF LIFE, OF MARRIAGES, AND OF ASSOCIATIONS. CHAPTER XV. -- CONCERNING THE BENEFITS OF INSTITUTIONS WHICH DEPEND UPON THE PROBABILITY OF EVENTS. CHAPTER XVI. -- CONCERNING ILLUSIONS IN THE ESTIMATION OF PROBABILITIES. CHAPTER XVII. -- CONCERNING THE VARIOUS MEANS OF APPROACHING CERTAINTY. CHAPTER XVIII. -- HISTORICAL NOTICE CONCERNING THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES.