The MENA Powers and the Nile Basin Initiative

Description

This book presents the current conflict in the Middle East and North Africa over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the biggest in Africa. The project explains why economic, and to some extent political, survival is at the core of the conflict, specifically between Egypt and Ethiopia. Although the problem started with insistence of “no dam” by Egypt and subsequently narrowed down to a filling up period of the reservoir and technical operations of the dam, finding a solution agreeable to both nations has been elusive for the past eight years. Ensuring water for all members in the Basin is consistent with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6, particularly given the looming effects of climate change, increasing population, urbanization, and rising consumptive water uses.  Foreword Acknowledgments Introduction Framing the Issue Scope of the Study Water Rights Conflict The White House to the Rescue Format Contents About the Author Abbreviations List of Figures List of Tables Part I The Conflict, Murmurs of War, and Response 1 Conflict in the Nile Basin The Problem The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Issues of Contention Declaration to Build the Dam The Context Historical Commitment Historical Impediments Political Instability in Ethiopia Drought and Famine Economic Hardships Colonial Treaties Political Instability in Egypt GERD Technical Aspects Value-Based Conflicts Dam as a Political Project Rights Risks Equity Efficiency Benefits Versus Costs Substantive Issues of Contention Issue 1—Ethiopia’s Unilateral Decision vs. Legal Covenants Issue 2—Negative Externalities? Issue 3—Filling and Operation of the Dam References 2 Murmurs of War Significance of the Nile Invasions Romanticized Governance Politicization of the Nile 19th Century: First Critical Juncture 20th Century: Second Critical Juncture Creation of the Nile Basin Initiative History of NBI Formation Goals and Objectives The Structure NBI and Water Security Goal GERD Ignites Conflict References 3 The Response The NBI and Its Limitations Efficacy of Water Institutions Successes and Limitations Structure Governance Processes CFA and Its Limitations Treaty Ratification Permanent Institutions Water Security Conflict Resolution Mechanisms Adaptability Pluralistic Decision-Making International Panel of Experts Mediation-1: The Declaration of Principles Mediation-2: Trump’s Deal or No Deal? Twists and Turns Regional “Capillarity Effect” The MENA Powers and the Nile Basin Initiative Regional Subsystem Summary References 4 Lessons Learned Introduction Strengths Institutional Policy Evidence-Based Policy-Making Policy Styles and Problem-Solving Approaches Policy Instruments Diplomatic Weaknesses Institutional Policy Diplomacy Collective Action Problem: Strength or Weakness? The Tragedy of the Commons: Strength or Weakness? References Part II Navigating Solutions Through Theoretical Lenses 5 Theoretical Solutions Introduction Prospect Theory Losses, Gains, and Other Premises Collective Action Theory Cross-Cultural Communication Theory Intergroup Contact Theory (Contact Hypothesis) Pareto-Improvement Principle References Part III Short-Term Solutions 6 Ideal Third-Party Mediation Introduction Competencies Understanding the Context Negotiating Context External Factors Political Stressors Social Stressors Framing the Problem Experience Pragmatic Strategies Distributive Strategy Elicited/Integrative Transformational Strategy Duress-Free Mediation Outcomes That Last Compliance Client Satisfaction Summary References 7 Bilateral Agreements and Litigations Introduction Bilateral Treaties Summary Litigation Litigation Limitations Summary References Part IV Long-Term Solutions 8 Renegotiate, Partition, Apportion the Waters, and Contextualize Negotiation Introduction Renegotiate the CFA Conditions to Renegotiate Renegotiation Costs: Constraints and Solutions Lessons for Egypt Partitioning the Nile Basin Free-Rider Defection and Group Size The Upper Nile Basin (UNB) The Lower Nile Basin (LNB) Apportioning the Nile Waters Allocating Water Quotas Contextualized Negotiation Model (CNM) Uniqueness References Part V Policy Recommendations and Conclusions 9 Policy Recommendations and Conclusions Policy Recommendations: Implications for Egypt and Ethiopia Going to War (Deploy “Hard Power”) Mitigating Water Rights Conflicts Resolving Water Rights Conflicts Policy Recommendations: Implications for the Nile Basin References Conclusions What Lack of Agreement Means for the Actors Alternatives for Egypt Implications for the MENA Powers and the Nile Basin Initiative Regional Security Appendix 1a Timeline of Events—GERD Project Appendix 1b Timeline of Events—Negotiations References Index